NFL Betting Trends and Week 3 Best Bets

NFL Betting Trends and Week 3 Best Bets

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Betting Trends and Best Bets for Week 3

Through 2 weeks of NFL action, home teams have taken it on the chin going just 13-19 straight-up (SU) and 11-19-2 ATS for 37% winning bets including a neutral 17-15 Over-Under record. Home dogs are 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS record while seeing the Under go 6-7. Home favorites have been significant money-burners posting a 9-10 record, 5-13-1 ATS for 28% winning tickets, and 11-8 Over-Under.

In games that were priced at 45.5 or more points, the Over has produced a 14-8 for 64% winning bets. However, games with a posted total so 45.5 points exact have been a perfect 6-0, so this trend is essentially not meaningful, and would expect future games with totals of 45.5 points to see more Under than Over results. 

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Expert Best Bet for Week 3 NFL Sunday

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM EST

Jaguars -9 | Total: 44-points as offered by betMGM

The following is a highly profitable betting algorithm that supports the contrarian bet on the Texans getting the nine points the market is currently offering. The requirements from this algorithm are to bet on road underdogs of between 3.5 to 9.5 points and are averaging 28 or more points per game on the season. This set of parameters has posted a 42-76 SU record (36%), but as highly profitable 77-39-3 ATS mark good for 66.4% winning bets since the start of the 2015 season.

Drilling further into the data and adding the situation that our dog had gotten 26% or more quarterback pressures of all plays run by the opponent's offensive in the previous game improves the record to 8-12 SU and 13-6-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2015.

Good Luck in Week 3 NFL action and "Bet With Your Heads and Not Over It and May All the Wins be Yours"

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Ryan
John Ryan has been handicapping professional sports for over 28 years. He has either won or placed in the Top-10 in dozens of contests. John's success begins with the philosophy that profits are earned and measured over the long-term and not just one lucky weekend. He has hosted or been a guest on more than 5,000 shows and when hosting he always ends them with "Bet with your heads and not over it and may all the wins be yours." Every client is informed that there are no guarantees for profit or that any past performances can be counted on for future profitable results. He provides full disclosure that gambling can be dangerous, but can be a lot of fun if done in a very disciplined manner. For more than 30 years John has develoepd adn deployed many advanced analytical, machine learning, and neural network quantitative applications. Jumuman subjectivity from these applications is minimized and proftit potential optimized. The foundation systems are based on combinatorial algorithms and an adaptive-structure Neural Network. In summary, his systems calculate and analyze several million pieces of game data and then optimizes the data to produce the best possible forecasts. The systems also optimize team streaks and momentum metrics much like their technical use in the analysis of a stocks, futures, or even bitcoin. As seen in the financial markets for decades and personally learned from a vast investment banking career on Wall Street, John applies a contrarian weighting to the betting markets consensus. For example, if a given trend in any sport is posting a 15-2 ATS, then the model may project that the trend has topped and is more likely to reverse. JRS is a cutting-edge technology company whose sports information is unique, and informative, and has produced strong predictive anmd consistent results. The key is committing to a full season or a 6 to 12-month horizon. If you make that decision to do that and invest in yourself, you will not be disappointed. After all, he has been around for 28 years with a proven track record of success and treating clients with the respect and full transparency. To be one of the best in anything it takes hard work week after week and John provides this with no hype and just facts that you trust.
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