This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Week 3 Betting Roundup
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I have started the 2023 College Football season going 17-6 Against-the-Spread (ATS) for 74% winning bets, tacking on to the last three seasons that have earned an 93-42-3 ATS record good for 69% winning bets.
Each week, I will detail how double-digit underdogs performed and how many of them pulled off the shocking upset. In every season dating back to 2010, I have had money on at least one 17.5 or greater-point underdog that found a way to win the game outright. In week 3 action, double-digit underdogs underperformed, posting a 1-47 SU record and a money-losing 21-26 ATS mark good for 45% winning bets.
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College Football Betting Algorithm
The following betting algorithm has earned a highly profitable 41-6 straight-up (SU) record and 35-11-1 ATS for 76% winning bets since 2019 and has not lost money in any of the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on:
· Home teams
· Home team has seen their last three games play Over the total by 21 or more points.
· Home team has won at least 80% of their games.
· The Guest has a winning record
If both teams have won at least 80% of their games, the home team has posted a 17-3 SU mark for 85% winners and 14-6 ATS for 70% cashed tickets since 2019. If both teams enter the showdown with perfect records, the home team has gone 7-2 SU and ATS for 78% winning tickets.
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College Football Live Betting Strategy
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Live betting
I like the over in this game, taking advantage of the price decline from an opening of 63.5 points to the current price of 54.5 points. Given the heavy action betting the under, being patient is preferred, and it would not be surprising if this total went lower to 52.5/53 points.
I am going to bet 50% of my normal bet size preflop at 53 points. If the price does not reach that price, then I will look for 53 points during the first half of action to place that 50% betting amount. Next, I will look for 49.5 points to bet the remaining 50% during the first half of action.
Given a total of 55 points, the scoring pace needs to average about 14 points per quarter. I dug into my database and found out that in a matchup of Top-10 teams since 2006, the first and third quarters have been the slowest, averaging 13.89 and 13.64 points, respectively. The second quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter, averaging 19.3 points.
So, if the first quarter scoring is 11 or fewer points in this game, the price for the total is likely to get to 49.5 points, offering us the opportunity to get an exceptionally cheap price for this game.
College Football Expert Picks for Week 4
Double-digit underdogs to monitor in Week 4 based on model
The Week 4 card has 13 teams priced as 17.5 or more-point underdogs and one of them is a ranked matchup when the 21-point underdog Colorado Buffalos travel to Eugene, Oregon, to take on the Oregon Ducks. As a starting point for my handicapping research for Week 4 best bets, I will also be looking at potential bet opportunities on the following teams:
Rutgers +24 points vs. Michigan
Western Michigan +20.5 points vs. Toledo
Duke vs. Connecticut +21.5 points
Miami (FLA) vs. Temple +24 points
Louisiana Tech +20 points vs. Nebraska
UTSA +20.5 points vs. Tennessee
Arkansas +17.5 points vs. LSU
Charlotte +28 points vs. Florida
UAB +42 points vs. Georgia
USC vs. ASU +33.5 points
California +21 points vs. Washington
Kent State +27.5 vs. Fresno State
College Football Best Bets for Week 4: Notre Dame +3.0 and Over 54.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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From the Predictive Model
My predictive model expects Notre Dame to score 28 or more points, gain 170 or more rushing yards, and have at least a 3-minute edge in time of possession. In past games in which Notre Dame met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go 32-1 SU and 25-8 ATS for 76% winning bets since 2006. In games in which Ohio State allowed 28 or more points, allowed 170 or more rushing yards, and had 27 or fewer minutes in time of possession has led to a money-losing 3-4 SU record, 1-5-1 ATS mark, and a 6-1 Over record.
No. 6 Ohio State vs No. 9 Notre Dame
The Ohio State Buckeyes, ranked No.6 in the nation, will take a short road trip to Sound Bend Indiana to take on the No.9-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a monumental showdown set to kickoff at 7:30 PM EST and will be televised by NBC. Several weeks ago the line for this game opened with Ohio State favored by 7.5 points and has since dropped to making them a 3.5-point favorite. The total moved significantly lower from an opening price of 63.5 points to a current price of 55 points with a few sports books offering 54.5 points.
Notre Dame's quarterback Sam Hartman threw for three touchdowns in a 41-17 win over Central Michigan in Week 3 action. He now has 123 career passing touchdowns ranking him seventh most in college football's all-time list trailing Houston's Case Keenum with 155 passing touchdowns. Hartman has 13 passing touchdowns this season and is likely to pass Hawaii's Colt Brennan, who threw for 131 touchdowns from 2005-08, Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield, who threw for 131 touchdowns from 2005-07, and Marshall's Rakeem Cato, who threw for 131 touchdowns from 2011-14.
Notre Dame moved Chris Tyree from running back to wide receiver and his elite speed is already paying off. He is averaging 27 yards-per-catch with 8 catches gaining 216 receiving yards, which ranks tops on the team. When Ohio State needs to bring one of their two safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to support the run, watch Hartman use play action pass with a double-move vertical route to Tyree for high percentage chunk gains.
