Combining ADPs for Better Insight

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Published on October 8, 2009

Combining ADPs for Better Insight

After you've outlined your own draft strategy, it's worth a try to understand your opponents' strategies. In an attempt to do just that, I compiled the average draft position (ADP) results from three of the most heavily used draft programs on the internet and then averaged those... ummm... averages... together. Depending on which website your opponents get their draft boards from drastically influences how early or late they may plan to take certain players.

Dwight Howard's ADP is significantly different depending on which site's results you use (7-ESPN,10-Yahoo!, and 22-Mock Draft Central). The difference between the 7th overall pick and the 22nd overall pick is the difference between taking Howard in the first, second, or third round. This tool let's you see where he is most likely to go, based on an average of his draft position (13th overall). What this tells you is: If Howard is a player you are targeting, and you want him on your team, then you can't expect to draft him later than the 13th pick.

My hope is that this uber ADP will offer a more complete idea of where players will be taken on draft day and who you can reasonably target in each round. Instead of trying to dissect every opponent's draft strategy individually, this board combines all of their strategies into one heaping mess of an estimate. I like to think of it as the Voltron of ADP boards.

Below are the top 150 players based on their combined ADPs from Yahoo!, ESPN, and MDC's current draft results.

	PLAYER	ESPN	YAHOO	MDC	AVERAGE ADP
1	Paul, Chris	1.7	1	1.06	1.25
2	James, LeBron	1.7	2	1.97	1.89
3	Wade, Dwyane	5.4	3	3	3.80
4	Bryant, Kobe	4.5	4	4.34	4.28
5	Durant, Kevin	4	7	4.91	5.30
6	Granger, Danny	5.6	6	6.86	6.15
7	Nowitzki, Dirk	8.2	5	6.2	6.47
8	Stoudemire, Amar'e	13.9	9	8.14	10.35
9	Bosh, Chris	11.1	11	9.23	10.44
10	Gasol, Pau	12.7	8	10.66	10.45
11	Williams, Deron	9.2	14	12.51	11.90
12	Howard, Dwight	7	10	21.86	12.95
13	Roy, Brandon	16	12	12.37	13.46
14	Jefferson, Al	12.8	15	15	14.27
15	Billups, Chauncey	18.4	16	15.8	16.73
16	Garnett, Kevin	19.7	13	18.26	16.99
17	Nash, Steve	16.1	18	18.34	17.48
18	Duncan, Tim	20	17	21.6	19.53
19	Iguodala, Andre	16.4	22	23.91	20.77
20	Calderon, Jose	28.5	21	15.11	21.54
21	Johnson, Joe	20.7	23	24.2	22.63
22	Butler, Caron	38.3	19	12.54	23.28
23	Harris, Devin	29.5	24	19.6	24.37
24	Kidd, Jason	26.4	25	23.34	24.91
25	Pierce, Paul	22.9	26	28.6	25.83
26	Anthony, Carmelo	15.1	27	37.89	26.66
27	Jamison, Antawn	43	20	21.34	28.11
28	Arenas, Gilbert	31.7	31	27.11	29.94
29	Carter, Vince	36.6	28	26.71	30.44
30	Murphy, Troy	29.8	35	31.4	32.07
31	West, David	23.4	33	40.51	32.30
32	Lopez, Brook	37.5	30	29.49	32.33
33	Brand, Elton	31.6	37	29.57	32.72
34	Martin, Kevin	34.5	32	34.2	33.57
35	Wallace, Gerald	37	29	35.37	33.79
36	Lewis, Rashard	41.7	34	31.86	35.85
37	Boozer, Carlos	33.1	43	33.66	36.59
38	Smith, Josh	41.6	38	39.03	39.54
39	Rose, Derrick	34	40	51.14	41.71
40	Lee, David	31.3	46	51.89	43.06
41	Ellis, Monta	40.8	47	44.86	44.22
42	Davis, Baron	42.1	44	46.77	44.29
43	Rondo, Rajon	29	50	56.03	45.01
44	Biedrins, Andris	49.1	48	43.14	46.75
45	Aldridge, LaMarcus	55.3	39	46.8	47.03
46	Camby, Marcus	52.1	49	40.23	47.11
47	Allen, Ray	54.8	41	51.54	49.11
48	Marion, Shawn	76.6	36	38.69	50.43
49	Okur, Mehmet	52.8	51	47.86	50.55
50	Jackson, Stephen	48.4	53	57.97	53.12
51	Williams, Mo	53.9	63	42.94	53.28
52	Gay, Rudy	56	55	50.97	53.99
53	Ginobili, Manu	80.6	45	37.17	54.26
54	Hilario, Nene	47.2	59	59	55.07
55	Redd, Michael	60.3	52	53.4	55.23
56	Parker, Tony	49.2	56	62.89	56.03
57	Nelson, Jameer	58.2	58	52.8	56.33
58	Richardson, Jason	76.9	42	55.51	58.14
59	Mayo, O.J.	53.8	54	68.17	58.66
60	Bargnani, Andrea	71.5	60	47.71	59.74
61	Turkoglu, Hedo	62	57	62.54	60.51
62	Gordon, Ben	50.1	61	72.09	61.06
63	Harrington, Al	50.6	68	68.89	62.50
64	Miller, Andre	66.9	69	59.66	65.19
65	Bynum, Andrew	68.8	64	64.69	65.83
66	Westbrook, Russell	50.7	71	79.06	66.92
67	Horford, Al	78.4	62	62.91	67.77
68	Artest, Ron	64.1	78	67.31	69.80
69	Okafor, Emeka	67.1	70	75.74	70.95
70	Villanueva, Charlie	72	65	78.26	71.75
71	Gordon, Eric	59.2	79	78.34	72.18
72	Bibby, Mike	95.1	67	56.97	73.02
73	Terry, Jason	75.2	83	62.34	73.51
74	Green, Jeff	67.9	82	73.54	74.48
75	Randolph, Zach	65.7	76	89.14	76.95
76	Griffin, Blake	83.4	66	81.94	77.11
77	Salmons, John	76	73	95.17	81.39
78	Millsap, Paul	90.6	77	78.49	82.03
79	Odom, Lamar	93.7	80	77.8	83.83
80	Love, Kevin	82.9	87	86.49	85.46
81	Hawes, Spencer	102.7	85	68.91	85.54
82	Howard, Josh	86.6	86	85.37	85.99
83	Jefferson, Richard	96.8	89	72.63	86.14
84	Diaw, Boris	70.7	92	100.77	87.82
85	O'Neal, Shaquille	85.8	81	97.71	88.17
86	Bogut, Andrew	94.9	94	75.63	88.18
87	Barbosa, Leandro	120	72	77.69	89.90
88	Ariza, Trevor	92.7	95	84.6	90.77
89	Randolph, Anthony	92.6	74	109.06	91.89
90	Wallace, Rasheed	100.9	75	100.17	92.02
91	Scola, Luis	85.1	88	104.03	92.38
92	Kirilenko, Andrei	96.1	100	81.71	92.60
93	Thomas, Tyrus	65.7	90	124.23	93.31
94	Smith, J.R.	83.7	84	112.74	93.48
95	Kaman, Chris	104.3	91	97.29	97.53
96	Hamilton, Richard	89.1	108	96.54	97.88
97	Beasley, Michael	108.9	104	81.17	98.02
98	Iverson, Allen	73.7	96	124.66	98.12
99	Ford, T.J.	102.9	101	92.97	98.96
100	Felton, Raymond	96.7	112	88.23	98.98
101	Chalmers, Mario	84.4	114	103.06	100.49
102	Crawford, Jamal	102.7	107	92.11	100.60
103	Garcia, Francisco	87.6	115	103.17	101.92
104	Deng, Luol	113.8	102	99.2	105.00
105	Conley, Mike	95.5	97	128.54	107.01
106	Young, Thaddeus	76.7	106	143.63	108.78
107	Miller, Brad	117	99	113.46	109.82
108	Chandler, Wilson	111.6	93	125.97	110.19
109	Robinson, Nate	108.6	111	111.31	110.30
110	Thompson, Jason	119.5	105	107.89	110.80
111	Miller, Mike	122.8	121	89.49	111.10
112	Stojakovic, Peja	113.4	118	104.49	111.96
113	Williams, Marvin	122.9	98	116.63	112.51
114	Duhon, Chris	122.3	110	105.91	112.74
115	Sessions, Ramon	102.8	122	113.51	112.77
116	Dunleavy, Mike	112.2	141	92.97	115.39
117	Oden, Greg	108.2	116	122.51	115.57
118	Curry, Stephen	109.5	126	113.49	116.33
119	Maggette, Corey	117.9	127	105.29	116.73
120	Chandler, Tyson	117.9	113	121.66	117.52
121	O'Neal, Jermaine	114.4	103	135.51	117.64
122	Stuckey, Rodney	102.8	130	122.06	118.29
123	Brooks, Aaron	115.4	142	99.4	118.93
124	Noah, Joakim	107.3	109	143.2	119.83
125	McGrady, Tracy	107.1	120	136.03	121.04
126	Foye, Randy	122.2	128	113.43	121.21
127	Andersen, Chris	109.4	125	131.51	121.97
128	Prince, Tayshaun	115.9	117	138.83	123.91
129	Gasol, Marc	118.5	123	133.37	124.96
130	Lee, Courtney	115.6	129	132.97	125.86
131	Brewer, Ronnie	120	124	139.51	127.84
132	Martin, Kenyon	114.3	152	123.86	130.05
133	Dalembert, Samuel	113.2	146	131.77	130.32
134	Ilgauskas, Zydrunas	111.3	171	110.46	130.92
135	Battier, Shane	124.7	149	119.51	131.07
136	Thornton, Al	120.1	154	127.31	133.80
137	Flynn, Jonny	116.5	133	162.29	137.26
138	Thabeet, Hasheem	111.8	150	151.4	137.73
139	Williams, Louis	109.7	166	144.6	140.10
140	Hinrich, Kirk	119.2	190	119.49	142.90
141	Harden, James	117.9	198	115.2	143.70
142	Evans, Tyreke	117.2	168	147.86	144.35
143	Perkins, Kendrick	123.7	182	129.23	144.98
144	Augustin, D.J.	96.6	203	138.66	146.09
145	Fisher, Derek	104.3	134	200	146.10
146	Hansbrough, Tyler	104.8	147	200	150.60
147	Davis, Glen	140	144	170.46	151.49
148	McGee, JaVale	140	173	142.51	151.84
149	Fernandez, Rudy	115.8	189	152.26	152.35
150	Jennings, Brandon	117.6	179	160.91	152.50