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Confessions of an NBA Mock Draft Survivor

Having been immersed in all things baseball these last seven or so months, I'll be honest and say that the RotoWire NBA Mock Draft came as a bit of a surprise. A pleasant surprise, to be sure, but a surprise nonetheless. I'm only one man, and my dork skills only range so far. So when the aforementioned mock draft rolled around, I did what any self-respecting layabout would do: I crammed.

I want to say, first of all, that cramming for a mock draft is waaaayyyy more fun than cramming for, say, an organic chemistry exam. Not that I ever had to do that in college (any Latin majors in the house?), but you get the idea.

I want to say, second of all -- and I'm only doing this partly because RotoWire signs my gigantic, novelty sized checks -- that the RotoWire's draft prep really did help me to make up for lost time. If you have the means, point your internet browser in that direction.

Overall, I don't think my contribution to the draft was a total disaster. As Geoffrey Stein of Mock Draft Central suggests, picking eighth (which I did) is no great shakes this year. As a result of that -- and also because Danger is my maiden name (long story) -- I opted to play it a little risky up top, picking Al Jefferson and Gilbert Arenas in the first two rounds in spite of the obvious injury concerns. Antawn Jamison is fine, although probably less valuable in a league that doesn't count turnovers (his PTS:TO ratios are excellent). And after that, I picked ... Rudy Gay. Meh. Gay is a good baller with a Danny Granger Lite thing going on (minus three years), but his teammates will prevent him from being great (as I mention below).

No harm, no foul, though. This mock draft did exactly what a good mock draft should do: it got the rust out, helped me to see how other people might be picking this year, and taught me some lessons.

Speaking of lessons, here are three of them.

1. Memphis is cra-azy this year.

Having lost their league appeal to play all their games this season with four balls instead of just the regulation one|STAR|, it remains to be seen how Memphis will distribute said ball. Whatever their other virtues, Zach Randolph, Allen Iverson, O.J. Mayo, and Rudy Gay are not exactly famous for sharing. Consider their respective shots per game last year:

PlayerShots/gm
Randolph17.5
Gay17.0
Mayo15.7
Iverson14.7
Total64.9

Obviously this didn't all happen at Memphis. Randolph did most of his chucking in Los Angeles; Iverson, with Detroit. Still, when you consider that Memphis as a team averaged 77 shots per game last season, you have to wonder what'll happen. Whatever it is, it probably won't be good for any of the guys involved. Translation: it might be best to push your Grizzlies back a round or two on draft day.

Actually, I take that back. Regardless of what happens, I think Randolph will get his shots.

|STAR|Denotes probable lie.

2. After Blake Griffin, the 2009 draft class isn't so ripe for the picking.

Though he probably won't be starting to begin the year, Griffin should get pretty decent playing time and projects to put up useful numbers. And if Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman behave like Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman (i.e. get real injured), he'll probably be getting 96 minutes per game before too long|STAR|.

Of the other rookies in the league, only Minnesota's Jonny Flynn and New Jersey's Terrence Williams seem poised for big minutes from the beginning. Word from the Bay Area suggests that Stephen Curry might crack the starting lineup, but with Don Nelson in charge, it's always best to be cautious.

Because he's a crazy person, is why.

Finally, James Harden could be a decent mid-season pick-up, but for the time being, Thabo Sefolosha
remains the starter at the two for Oklahoma City.

|STAR|Denotes probable use of hyperbole.

3. Point guards are weird.

Q. What do Mario Chalmers, Rodney Stuckey, Andre Miller, Nate Robinson, Jamal Crawford, Mike Conley, Louis Williams, T.J. Ford, Mike Bibby, Raymond Felton, and Aaron Brooks all have in common?

A. Two things. For one, they all qualify at point guard. For two, they were all picked in the ninth round or later in the our draft, despite each offering starter-type minutes.

Of those guys, Miller, Conley, Ford, and Felton are all pretty good bets for about six or seven assists a game. Stuckey, Robinson, Crawford, Williams, and Brooks should all post at least 16 points a game. Chalmers is projected to play 35 to 37 minutes a game this season -- a year after averaging two steals in 32 minutes per game. Bibby is... okay, Bibby makes sense this late.

Bottom line: there appears to be quite a bit of depth at the position. Are Jameer Nelson and Maurice Williams better than the guys I just mentioned? Maybe, but probably not three or four rounds better.