2024 Stats
W-L
0-4
ERA
9.78
WHIP
2.22
K
24
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
After receiving an encouraging cup of coffee to end the 2022 season, Brown broke camp in the Astros rotation where he stayed all season. He made 31 appearances, with 29 starts. His 5.09 ERA is misleading as his 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA suggest Brown experienced some misfortune. The main culprits were a bloated .330 BABIP, a low 68.8 percent left on base mark and an extremely high 21.0 percent home run per fly ball clip. It's never all bad luck, but these metrics all scream impending regression. Brown's 18.5 percent K-BB percent ranked an impressive 21st among pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings pitched. The 25-year-old right-hander threw his 96-mph four seamer 46 percent of the time, but his 26.8 percent strikeout rate was driven by his curveball utilized at a 24 percent clip. Brown also toyed with a splitter with encouraging results. The Houston organization is adept at fine tuning their pitcher's repertoire, boding well for Brown to take the next step, beyond what natural regression will provide. Top-30 starting potential from a pitcher coming off a season with a 5.09 ERA is a great target. Read Past Outlooks
Issues persist against Guardians
Brown didn't factor into the decision Tuesday, allowing six runs on five hits and two walks across 5.1 innings against Cleveland. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
Brown gave up at least five runs for the third time in his last five starts and walked multiple batters for the fifth time this season. He was tagged for a three-run home run in the first inning by Josh Naylor and a two-run home run in the sixth by Andres Gimenez. Through six appearances, Brown is 0-3 with a 9.78 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP over 23.0 innings. He's lined up for a start against the Mariners on Sunday.
Brown gave up at least five runs for the third time in his last five starts and walked multiple batters for the fifth time this season. He was tagged for a three-run home run in the first inning by Josh Naylor and a two-run home run in the sixth by Andres Gimenez. Through six appearances, Brown is 0-3 with a 9.78 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP over 23.0 innings. He's lined up for a start against the Mariners on Sunday.
Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
80
Last 10 Games
80
Last 5 Games
78
How many pitches does Hunter Brown generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Hunter Brown generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-17%
BAA vs LHP
2024
-28%
BAA vs LHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2022vs Left | .245 | 115 | 43 | 93 | 11 | |||
| Since 2022vs Right | .295 | 109 | 33 | 116 | 20 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .317 | 16 | 8 | 19 | 2 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .439 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 3 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .246 | 85 | 30 | 68 | 9 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .276 | 93 | 25 | 89 | 17 | |||
| 2022vs Left | .136 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 0 | |||
| 2022vs Right | .310 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 0 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-13%
ERA on Road
2024
-76%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2022Home | 5.58 | 1.46 | 98.1 | 10.3 | 4.1 | ||||
| Since 2022Away | 4.83 | 1.40 | 100.2 | 10.0 | 2.8 | ||||
| 2024Home | 4.70 | 1.37 | 15.1 | 8.8 | 4.1 | ||||
| 2024Away | 19.96 | 3.91 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 8.2 | ||||
| 2023Home | 6.56 | 1.57 | 72.2 | 10.5 | 4.2 | ||||
| 2023Away | 3.80 | 1.18 | 83.0 | 10.1 | 2.3 | ||||
| 2022Home | 0.00 | 0.87 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 3.5 | ||||
| 2022Away | 1.80 | 1.30 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 2.7 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Hunter Brown compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
1.71K/9
9.4BB/9
5.5HR/9
2.0Fastball
95.1 mphERA
9.78WHIP
2.22BABIP
.439GB/FB
1.89Left On Base
56.8%Exit Velocity
84.2 mphBarrels/BBE
0.8%Spin Rate
2251 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
23.4%Swinging Strike
9.4%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Trajectory skyrocketing?
Brown has thrown 14.0 scoreless innings across his last two starts, striking out 12 while walking three over that span.
ANALYSIS
Brown entered the season among the highest regarded pitching prospects in baseball. After a mixed trio of appearances to start the season, Brown has been dialed in of late. His 1.02 WHIP ranks in the top-15 among all American League arms, and he's trending upward. He's worth a look in nearly all formats.
Brown entered the season among the highest regarded pitching prospects in baseball. After a mixed trio of appearances to start the season, Brown has been dialed in of late. His 1.02 WHIP ranks in the top-15 among all American League arms, and he's trending upward. He's worth a look in nearly all formats.
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Armed with an upper-90s fastball, low-80s curveball with above-average drop and a 93-mph slider, Brown has the type of modern pitch mix that passes the eye test and excites data analysts. For years, prospect analysts knew of Brown's impressive repertoire, but it wasn't until late in 2021 that he started to throw strikes at a rate that suggested he could make it as a starter. His walk rate at Triple-A and the majors has been between 8.8% and 10.6%, which is still on the high end for a starter, but it's workable and at 24 years old, there's still room for improvement. In addition to missing bats at an above-average clip, Brown has typically logged elite groundball rates north of 50%. There would be much more redraft buzz if the Astros didn't have perhaps the deepest rotation in the game. As such, it's unclear how many starts he will make in 2023, but there is a very high long-term ceiling.
More Fantasy News
First-inning struggles continue
Brown (0-4) allowed three runs on four hits and two walks over four innings to take the loss Sunday against the Nationals. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Starting Sunday
Brown is being moved up in the rotation to start Sunday against the Nationals, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Stuck with loss
Brown (0-3) took the loss Tuesday, allowing two runs on five hits and three walks with three strikeouts over six innings against Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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Brutal day in Kansas City
Brown (0-2) took the loss against the Royals on Thursday, allowing nine runs on 11 hits and a walk in just two-thirds of an inning.
ANALYSIS
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Tagged with five runs
Brown (0-1) allowed five runs on eight hits and four walks over three innings Friday, striking out three and taking a loss against Texas.
ANALYSIS
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