Luis Severino
Luis Severino
27-Year-Old PitcherRP
New York Yankees
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Dreams of a Gerrit Cole-Severino 1-2 punch atop the Yankees' rotation were shattered last February when Severino was diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. It was a brutal blow for the young right-hander, who made only three regular-season appearances in 2019 due to lat and shoulder issues. Prior to the run of injuries, Severino was emerging as one of the game's most promising hurlers, winning 33 games and registering a 3.18 ERA between 2017 and 2018. Plenty of pitchers have gone on to find success after TJ surgery, so there's no reason to rule out a return to form for Severino, though there's bound to be some rust -- and a strict innings limit -- upon his eventual return. Severino isn't expected to be ready to rejoin the rotation until well after the start of the regular season, further capping his 2021 value. He may not be a viable option in fantasy leagues until 2022. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#434
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Yankees in February of 2019. Contract includes $15 million team option ($2.75 million buyout) for 2023.
Two scoreless frames in return
PNew York Yankees
September 22, 2021
Severino pitched two scoreless innings against the Rangers on Tuesday, allowing two hits and striking out two.
ANALYSIS
In his first major-league game action since 2019, Severino gave up a double and a single but no runs while covering the final two frames of a New York victory. The right-hander registered five swinging strikes among his 30 pitches and averaged 94 mph on his fastball, per Lindsey Adler of The Athletic. The velocity was a few ticks below his norm prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery, but that isn't necessarily a concern considering Severino's long layoff. He's expected to continue working out of the bullpen for the remainder of the campaign as he gets re-acquainted with pitching to big-league hitters.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
34
Last 10 Games
34
Last 5 Games
34
How many pitches does Luis Severino generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Luis Severino generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-28%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-73%
BAA vs RHP
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .167 36 12 4 5 2 0 0
Since 2019vs Right .120 28 11 3 3 0 0 0
2021vs Left .333 4 0 0 1 1 0 0
2021vs Right .091 12 6 1 1 0 0 0
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Left .148 32 12 4 4 1 0 0
2019vs Right .143 16 5 2 2 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
2021
No Stats
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 0.00 0.82 11.0 1 0 0 12.3 1.6 0.0
Since 2019Away 3.60 1.20 5.0 1 1 0 14.4 9.0 0.0
2021Home 0.00 1.00 2.0 0 0 0 9.0 0.0 0.0
2021Away 0.00 0.50 2.0 1 0 0 18.0 4.5 0.0
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Home 0.00 0.78 9.0 1 0 0 13.0 2.0 0.0
2019Away 6.00 1.67 3.0 0 1 0 12.0 12.0 0.0
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Stat Review
How does Luis Severino compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
0.00
 
K/9
9.0
 
BB/9
0.0
 
HR/9
0.0
 
Fastball
94.4 mph
 
ERA
0.00
 
WHIP
1.00
 
BABIP
.355
 
GB/FB
1.00
 
Left On Base
100.0%
 
Exit Velocity
78.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
0.0%
 
Spin Rate
2197 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.2%
 
Swinging Strike
13.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luis Severino
Mound Musings: See You in September
24 days ago
Brad Johnson discusses which pitchers might be worth having on your team for the final month of the season, including Miami’s Edward Cabrera.
The Z Files: My Top 250 Rest-of-Season Pitchers
41 days ago
Todd Zola offers his projected pitcher rankings for the stretch run as two National League teams split the top four spots between them.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
49 days ago
Erik Siegrist looks over the AL free-agent pool as another top prospect joins the fray in Angels outfielder Jo Adell.
Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Rest of Season in Doubt for Tatis
52 days ago
Jeff Stotts discusses this week’s most notable injuries, starting with the Padres’ Fernando Tatis who’s back on the injured list with a subluxation in his left shoulder.
Mound Musings: Help Is on the Way?
66 days ago
Brad Johnson writes about the Futures Game, where promising young pitchers like the Rays’ Shane Baz were showcased, and Johnson provides a brief update on a handful injured pitchers.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Simply put, Severino is one of the best pitchers in MLB. The question heading into 2020 is, are the lat and shoulder issues that cost him all but three regular-season starts behind him? Initially diagnosed with a sore rotator cuff early in spring training, Severino was later revealed to have also suffered a Grade 2 lat strain which is what was responsible for the lengthy absence. When Severino returned, his velocity was just a tick below normal, offering some optimism for a full recovery. Severino is unfairly penalized for his home venue. Yankee Stadium is plus for homers but suppresses runs. This helps explain his success in the Bronx where his career ERA and WHIP are a tad better than on the road. Most will want to wait until the spring before investing, creating a buying opportunity in early drafts. However, even if healthy, Severino's workload will likely be lower than other aces.
Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. On top of that, he injured his shoulder warming up for his first spring training game and is expected to start the season on the injured list.
A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.
Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.
The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.
No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Ready for 2021 debut
PNew York Yankees
September 20, 2021
The Yankees reinstated Severino (shoulder) from the 60-day injured list Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Could return Monday
PNew York Yankees
Shoulder
September 19, 2021
The Yankees could activate Severino (shoulder) from the 60-day injured list as early as Monday, Max Goodman of SI.com reports.
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Impresses in live BP
PNew York Yankees
Shoulder
September 17, 2021
Manager Aaron Boone said Severino (shoulder) looked "really sharp" during Friday's two-inning live batting practice session, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
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Throwing sim game Friday
PNew York Yankees
Shoulder
September 16, 2021
Severino (shoulder) will throw two innings in a simulated game Friday, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.
ANALYSIS
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Slated to face live hitters
PNew York Yankees
Shoulder
September 14, 2021
Manager Aaron Boone said that Severino (shoulder) will face live hitters later this week, Marly Rivera of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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