Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

30-Year-Old OutfielderOF
New York Yankees
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Judge set a high bar for himself in 2017 with 52 homers, and mostly likely, every subsequent season will be a disappointment when compared to that year. The fact is that the league adjusted to him and he's never going to be able to repeat without major adjustments himself. The biggest change is that pitchers began throwing their non-fastballs for strikes against him and he's not punishing them. The percentage of fastballs against him dropped from 51% in 2017 to just 45% last year. He saw almost as many sliders as four-seamers in 2021 (697 vs 757), and he hit 18 homers off the fastballs and just five off the sliders. Since pitchers are filling the zone, his walk rate has dropped from 18.7% to 11.8%. The strikeout rate dropped this past season to a career-low 25%, but unless he makes further adjustments entering his age-30 season, he's likely capped at around 40 homers and a .275 average. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#35
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $19 million contract with the Yankees in June of 2022.
Crushes 29th homer
OFNew York Yankees
June 29, 2022
Judge went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run, a walk and an additional run scored during Wednesday's 5-3 win against the Athletics.
ANALYSIS
The 30-year-old put New York on the board with a 429-foot, two-run shot to left during the opening frame, and he walked during the third inning and came around to score on Giancarlo Stanton's three-run homer. Judge entered Wednesday's contest in a 2-for-20 slump, but he showed signs of busting out with the homer and the walk.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
5
41
2
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
22
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+2%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+27%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+12%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+30%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .954 306 51 26 57 1 .277 .363 .591
Since 2020vs Right .939 754 123 51 122 10 .291 .369 .571
2022vs Left .842 98 17 8 17 0 .226 .306 .536
2022vs Right 1.070 225 45 21 42 5 .317 .391 .678
2021vs Left .990 188 29 15 32 1 .298 .394 .596
2021vs Right .886 445 60 24 66 5 .283 .364 .522
2020vs Left 1.139 20 5 3 8 0 .316 .350 .789
2020vs Right .873 84 18 6 14 0 .263 .333 .539
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+6%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+2%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+26%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+100%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .912 524 83 37 82 4 .277 .359 .553
Since 2020Away .969 532 89 40 96 7 .294 .372 .597
2022Home 1.008 188 36 17 32 2 .299 .367 .641
2022Away .992 135 26 12 27 3 .276 .363 .629
2021Home .810 311 40 15 41 2 .259 .350 .459
2021Away 1.019 322 49 24 57 4 .314 .394 .625
2020Home 1.445 25 7 5 9 0 .318 .400 1.045
2020Away .722 75 14 4 12 0 .243 .293 .429
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Aaron Judge compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.44
 
BB Rate
11.1%
 
K Rate
25.4%
 
BABIP
.301
 
ISO
.346
 
AVG
.290
 
OBP
.365
 
SLG
.636
 
OPS
1.001
 
wOBA
.419
 
Exit Velocity
 
Hard Hit Rate
45.4%
 
Barrels/PA
15.4%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Judge
FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Targets
2 days ago
Chris Bennett checks out Tuesday's slate as Charlie Morton and Atlanta host the Phillies.
Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers
2 days ago
While a number of prospects may be heading on the right trajectory, Jesse Siegel mentions a few who'll need to improve if they eventually want to make it to the Majors.
DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown
3 days ago
Dan Marcus previews Monday’s DraftKings slate, recommending several Rangers against Kansas City.
Bernie on the Scene: These Six Pitchers May Get Traded
3 days ago
With the MLB trade deadline coming up at the beginning of August, Bernie Pleskoff writes about players who could be moved to new teams, starting with Reds' starting pitcher Luis Castillo.
Todd's Takes: Not So Dreary, Judging RBI and Bam!
7 days ago
Todd Zola gives his thoughts on Wednesday's MLB action, including a reassessment of Brandon Drury's rest-of-season projection.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Judge looked like an MVP candidate through the first few weeks of the abbreviated 2020 campaign, slashing .290/.343/.758 with nine home runs and 20 RBI over his first 17 games. However, he missed significant time for the third straight season when a calf strain forced him to the bench for all but one of the following 31 contests. Upon his return, Judge struggled to find a rhythm at the plate, hitting a meager .194 with no homers over 43 PA to end the regular season. It stands to reason that the injury was largely responsible for Judge's disappointing overall 11.6% barrel rate, 92.2 mph average exit velocity and 40.6% hard-hit rate (all precipitous drops from his career norms), and it's wise to expect those numbers to rise over a larger sample this season. Nonetheless, fantasy managers considering an investment in Judge must balance his massive power potential with his history of missed time.
For the second consecutive season, Judge's campaign was interrupted by injury as he missed two months with an oblique strain suffered in mid-April. When he was on the field, however, Judge was again one of the most fearsome sluggers in baseball, topping the league in average exit velocity (95.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (53.8%) while ranking sixth in barrel rate (10.7 Brls/PA). Though Judge has yet to repeat the elite 10.4 AB/HR he posted as a rookie in 2017, his 14.6 AB/HR and 54 total long balls over the last two injury-plagued seasons tease at the power numbers he is capable of producing. In addition, Judge's ability to smoke the ball off the bat has produced a healthy .273 career batting average despite a woeful 31.6 K%. In his prime and entrenched in New York's potent offense, Judge should rank among the leaders in homers and run production in 2020 if he is able to stay healthy for the entire season.
Regression was probably inevitable for Judge after he took the baseball world by storm as a rookie, but his 25-home run decline was harsher than most anticipated. The fractured wrist that sidelined Judge for nearly two months bears much of the blame, as his batted-ball profile otherwise revealed the outfielder performed like one of the game's top sluggers. For the second straight year, Judge lit up the Statcast leaderboards, ranking first in average exit velocity (94.8 mph) and hard-hit percentage (53.8%) and 20th in barrel rate (8.6 Brls/PA). Judge's thumping ways should regularly translate to high BABIPs, thereby giving him more batting-average stability than others who strike out as often as he does (career 31.6 K%). Further wrist issues would obviously affect Judge's outlook, but the fact that he ended 2018 on the field and didn't require a follow-up procedure over the winter indicates the Yankees are confident he'll anchor a talented lineup in 2019.
After a disappointing debut in 2016, Judge exploded for 52 home runs, finishing second in the AL MVP voting and arguably becoming the new face of baseball. He ranked first or second in most traditional hitting categories and modern technology confirmed what was obvious to the naked eye: Judge crushed the ball. He finished first in the majors in barrel rate (12.8 Brls/PA) and second among qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (45.3 percent). While Judge still struck out at a relatively high clip (30.7 percent), he made significant improvement in that regard from the previous season and trailed only Joey Votto in walk rate (18.7 percent). While his batting average could fade as he sees a heavier dose of breaking pitches, we've already seen enough to safely say Judge will be at least a three-category stud for many years to come. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in November, but is expected to be a full go for the start of spring training.
Long viewed as one of the top prospects in the Yankees system, Judge got a chance to make his major league debut last season. Following the trade deadline departure of Carlos Beltran, the 6-foot-7, 275-pound Judge was immediately inserted into an everyday role in right field. After smacking 19 home runs in the minors, Judge got off to a terrific start in the majors with homers in his first two games while hitting over .300 in his first week, but a lot of worrisome issues cropped up after that. The 24-year-old struck out at an alarming 44.2 percent clip and ended up hitting just .179 before a Grade 2 oblique strain ended his season. While his elite raw power was never questioned in the minors, he had some seasons where he posted strikeout rates above 25 percent, and the worry was always that big league pitching would be able to exploit his size, resulting in low batting averages. That appears to be exactly what happened last season. Winning the starting right field job is all but guaranteed, and Judge could be a solid source of power, but the questions about his hit tool make this an extremely volatile profile.
Viewed as the top prospect in the Yankees' system, Judge will likely get his chance to make his big league debut in 2016. The 23-year-old has great raw power, helped in large part by his 6-foot-7, 230 pound frame, which he flashed en route to hitting 20 home runs across both Double-A and Triple-A in 2015. Though his average dipped after the promotion, Judge projects to be more than just a pure power hitter. Barring any offseason trades, the Yankees' outfield appears to be totally accounted for, with Carlos Beltran occupying Judge's natural right field spot for the 2016 season and Aaron Hicks available to spell him. In order to give Judge everyday playing time, the Yankees will likely have him spend the first half (if not the entire season) back at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
At 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, Judge was understandably labeled a high-risk/high-reward proposition when he was drafted by the Yankees with the 32nd pick in the 2013 draft. Now, following an excellent first full season as a professional, the idea of Judge actualizing his immense potential is starting to look a lot more realistic. He has 80 raw power, which one might expect out of such a herculean specimen. But, somewhat surprisingly, he also had no problem hitting for average and getting on base in 131 games between Low-A and High-A. He split his time right down the middle between the two stops, and combined to post a .308/.419/.486 slash line with 17 home runs. There’s no doubt that more power will come in time, and by showing good on-base skills in 2014 he has earned the label of best position player prospect in the Yankees’ system. After capping his impressive debut season by putting on a show in the Arizona Fall League, few prospects will enter 2015 with more helium.
Judge, one of the Yankees' first-round picks in the 2013 draft, is a massive human being at 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds, but he has a good arm and moves around well enough that he should stick in the outfield. He has a short swing that hasn't yet generated much in-game power, so it seems likely that the Yankees will want to work with him on his mechanics to unleash some of that power potential. He'll make his pro debut in 2014, and may be brought along relatively slowly for an older bat drafted out of college.
More Fantasy News
Blasts walkoff homer
OFNew York Yankees
June 26, 2022
Judge went 1-for-4 with a three-run homer and a walk during Sunday's 6-3 win over Houston.
ANALYSIS
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Avoids arbitration hearing
OFNew York Yankees
June 24, 2022
Judge and the Yankees settled on a one-year, $19 million contract Friday to avoid an arbitration hearing, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
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Slugs two more homers in win
OFNew York Yankees
June 22, 2022
Judge went 2-for-5 with a pair of solo home runs Wednesday in a 5-4 victory versus Tampa Bay.
ANALYSIS
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Receives Tuesday off
OFNew York Yankees
June 21, 2022
Judge is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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Clubs 25th home run
OFNew York Yankees
June 16, 2022
Judge went 1-for-3 with a solo home run during Wednesday's 4-3 win over the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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