This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Monday, May 20

The Winners and Losers in MLB

The MLB landscape has seen more of the same, with the top teams continuing to win and the rest of the franchises chasing in their respective divisions. The New York Yankees have won seven consecutive games and completed a three-game sweep of the lowly Chicago White Sox.  

In last week's article, I detailed why it was an optimal opportunity to start backing the Houston Astros and they did not disappoint going 8-2 over their last 10 games. They are five games under .500, but trail the Seatle Mariners by only four games in the AL West Division standings.  

In the AL Central, the Cleveland Guardians are being chased by the Kansas City Royals, who trail by two games. These two teams have separated themselves from the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers, who have gone 3-7 and 4-6 over their last 10 games, respectively.  

The Philadelphia Phillies continue to win and have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games, leading the Atlanta Braves by five games in the NL East. The Braves are 6-4 over their last 10 games, but the other three teams (New York Mets, Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins) all have regressed posting losing 10-game marks.  

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Best Bets for the New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians 

The New York Mets avoided a three-game sweep of the last-place Miami Marlins with a 7-3-win Sunday. They begin a three-game set on the road facing the AL Central's first-place Guardians Monday, and will look to recover from having lost three consecutive road series against the Braves, Phillies and Marlins. The Guardians are coming off a dominating sweep of the Twins and have won six of their last seven games. The Guardians are priced as –120 home favorites with a posted total of 8.5 runs. 

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Who Are the Starters? 

The Mets will give the ball to right-hander Tylor Megill and the Guardians will counter with right-hander Ben Lively. Megill will be returning from the 15-day IL after suffering a shoulder injury in his season debut on March 31. He has made four minor-league rehab starts and is not feeling any pain when throwing his curveball. In his most recent start, he completed 5.1 shutout innings on 74 pitches for Triple-A Syracuse on May 12. He will not be under any pitch-count restrictions for this start. 

Lively will be making his seventh start and has posted a 2-2 record with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.268 WHIP, including 31 strikeouts spanning 32.2 innings of work. He is coming off a road start where he fell victim to the hitter-friendly Globe Field Park, allowing solo home runs to the Rangers' Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager and Nathaniel Lowe but got the win.

Lively will be pitching against a mediocre Mets lineup this season, ranking 16th, scoring 4.33 runs per game, 18th with a .236 team batting average, and 23rd with a terrible .365 slugging percentage. He will be quite tough on the left-handed batters in the Mets' lineup, as he has allowed a .140 batting average this season. Normally, left-handed batters perform much better against a right-handed starter, whose breaking pitches work toward a left-hander's power zone. The left-handers in the Mets lineup who are expected to be in the lineup tonight are Brandon Nimmo, Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil. 

MLB Betting Algorithm Hitting 88 Percent Winners

The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 48-14 record, averaging a –114 wager that has resulted in an outstanding 44 percent ROI that has made the Dime Bettor a $36,360 profit over the past five seasons. The requirements are: 

• Bet on a team involved in an inter-league matchup. 
• That team is coming off a three-game sweep over a divisional foe. 

If our team has a winning record and the foe has a losing record our team has gone 23-3 for 88 percent winning bets averaging a –147 wager earning a 58 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor an $18,220 profit over the past five seasons. 

Situational Trends Supporting a Guardians Win 

• The Guardians under skipper Stephen Vogt are 18-7, making 13.45 units per unit wagered when facing an opponent with a solid bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.35 or lower in the current season. 
• The Mets are a money-losing 23-49, losing 19.5 units per unit wagered when priced as an underdog spanning the past two seasons. 
• When on the road and priced as a dog they have gone 16-34, losing 12.5 units per unit wagered over the past two seasons. 
• The Mets are 22-33, losing 17.7 units per unit wagered when facing a foe from the AL spanning the past two seasons. 
• Bet the Guardians at –120 using the moneyline and is valid to –135 for your best bet Monday. 

The Player Props For Monday Action 

• Bet the Guardians' Ben Lively to record 5.0 or more strikeouts priced at 105. 
• Bet the Nationals' Joey Gallo to get a hit priced at –115. 
• Bet the Yankees' Juan Soto to record an RBI priced at 150. 
• Bet the Orioles' Dean Kremer to record 5.0 or more strikeouts priced at –125. 
• Bet the Marlins' Ryan Weathers to allow 3.0 or more earned runs priced at 115.