The hype around rookie center Connor Bedard heading into his NHL career rivals what we saw surrounding Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby before him. How does Chicago's 2023 first overall pick compare to those two centers and other recent No. 1 overall draft selections?
A look at how top picks dating back to Crosby have fared can help set the expectations for Bedard's rookie year and beyond.
| Draft Year | Player | Position | Team | Rookie Points | Most Points | Stanley Cup(s) |
| 2005 | Sidney Crosby | Center | Penguins | 102 (39G, 63A) | 120 (36G, 84A) | 3: 2009, 2016, 2017 |
| 2006 | Erik Johnson | Defense | Blues | 33 (5G, 28A) | 39 (10G, 29A) | 2022 (with Colorado) |
| 2007 | Patrick Kane | Right Wing | Blackhawks | 72 (21G, 51A) | 110 (44G, 66A) | 3: 2010, 2013, 2015 |
| 2008 | Steven Stamkos | Center | Lightning | 46 (23G, 23A) | 106 (42G, 64A) | 2: 2020, 2021 |
| 2009 | John Tavares | Center | Islanders | 54 (24G, 30A) | 88 (47G, 41A) | None |
| 2010 | Taylor Hall | Left Wing | Oilers | 42 (22G, 20A) | 93 (39G, 54A) | None |
| 2011 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Center | Oilers | 52 (18G, 34A) | 104 (37G, 67A) | None |
| 2012 | Nail Yakupov | Right Wing | Oilers | 31 (17G, 14A) | 33 (14G, 19A) | None |
| 2013 | Nathan MacKinnon | Center | Avalanche | 63 (24G, 39A) | 111 (42G, 69A) | 2022 |
| 2014 | Aaron Ekblad | Defense | Panthers | 39 (12G, 27A) | 57 (15G, 42A) | None |
| 2015 | Connor McDavid | Center | Oilers | 48 (16G, 32A) | 153 (64G, 89A) | None |
| 2016 | Auston Matthews | Center | Maple Leafs | 69 (40G, 29A) | 106 (60G, 46A) | None |
| 2017 | Nico Hischier | Center | Devils | 52 (20G, 32A) | 80 (31G, 49A) | None |
| 2018 | Rasmus Dahlin | Defense | Sabres | 44 (9G, 35A) | 73 (15G, 58A) | None |
| 2019 | Jack Hughes | Center | Devils | 21 (7G, 14A) | 99 (43G, 56A) | None |
| 2020 | Alexis Lafreniere | Left Wing | Rangers | 21 (12G, 9A) | 39 (16G, 23A) | None |
| 2021 | Owen Power | Defense | Sabres | 3 (2G, 1A) | 35 (4G, 31A) | None |
| 2022 | Juraj Slafkovsky | Left Wing | Canadiens | 10 (4G, 6A) | 10 (4G, 6A) | None |
| 2023 | Connor Bedard | Center | Blackhawks | TBD | TBD | None |
The lone exception in all three cases was the man Bedard will be replacing as the face of the franchise in Chicago. Patrick Kane's a right wing but constantly has the puck on his stick much like a center. The 2007 first overall pick hit the ground running as a rookie with 72 points, topped out at 110 points and led the Blackhawks to three Stanley Cups. Only Crosby (102) had more points in his first year than Kane among first overall picks since 2005, and Kane's three championships have him tied with Crosby for the most among this group.
The last nine centers drafted first overall before Bedard have all reached the 80-point mark in their careers, so that looks like the phenom's floor in his prime, but pre-draft expectations suggest he'll be closer to the likes of Crosby, McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon than John Tavares or Nico Hischier. The three superstar centers averaged 71 points in their rookie years and have an average career high of 128 points.
Bedard should be at least an 80-point player, and it would be at least mildly disappointing if he isn't reaching 100 points in his prime, but immediate success is no guarantee. The last four players drafted first overall before him all scored 21 or fewer points in their rookie seasons, and even elite talents like McDavid (48) and Steven Stamkos (46) failed to crack 50 points in their debut campaign, though McDavid came up short only because of a fractured clavicle. McDavid's inability to win the Stanley Cup through eight seasons is a testament to just how hard it is to win this trophy, and among all first overall picks since 2005, only Crosby, Kane and MacKinnon produced a championship season within a decade of entering the league.
Bedard's rookie totals are set at over/under 32.5 goals and 69.5 points at the DraftKings Sportsbook. Since Crosby's 39-goal rookie campaign, only Auston Matthews (40 goals in 2016) has scored 25-plus goals among rookie first overall picks. Matthews had only 69 points, though, and the only top picks to score 70-plus points in Year 1 from 2005 onward are Crosby (102) and Kane (72). Bedard may well be among the NHL's cream of the crop one day, but even future superstars struggled to reach the lofty benchmarks at play here, so the under looks like the smart bet on both his goal and point totals, with 25-30 goals and 60-65 points representing more realistic expectations, especially given Bedard's poor supporting cast in Chicago. The only player on the roster to reach the 60-point threshold in the past five seasons is 2010 first overall pick Taylor Hall, and he just barely got there with 61 points in 2021-22 with the Bruins.
