This article is part of our Horse Racing series.
Triple Crown Betting Guide: Best Bets for 2023 Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Date and Time
Churchill Downs - Race 12
Post Time: Saturday, May 6 at 6:57 ET
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Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
#6 KINGSBARNS (12/1 ml) (Top Pick)
Long-time readers know that I picked KINGBARNS in his Jan. 14 debut at Gulfstream, labeling him as a top prospect and potential Kentucky Derby threat before he even ran in that first maiden race. KINGSBARNS had already been working with some impressive older winners, including outworking the older 4yo CLASSY EDITION, who came out of that drill with KINGSBARNS to win a Gulfstream allowance race by five lengths earlier that same week. CLASSY EDITION later won another stakes race and is now 5-for-7 lifetime.
KINGSBARNS also easily outworked the unraced maidens SHESTERKIN and KING'S FORTUNE, both of whom emerged from their drills with KINGSBARNS to win their career debuts. In his own debut, KINGSBARNS was caught behind horses while racing in traffic along the inside, then engaged in some bumping (while still boxed in) turning into the stretch, then was able to force his way through a wall of horses in front of him, splitting horses nicely and taking the lead, then immediately opening up on that group before easily holding safe some late runners who came charging on the outside. That impressive maiden race confirmed the obvious talent that KINGSBARNS had already shown in the mornings, and also showed that KINGSBARNS is a resilient, tough-minded horse who isn't afraid of some bumping or traffic, attributes that can definitely help in the Kentucky Derby.
With that experience under his belt, KINGSBARNS was then entered in a two-turn allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs (it's worth noting that Pletcher's most recent Kentucky Derby winner ALWAYS DREAMING also won a smaller race at Tampa Bay Downs), an easy spot for KINGSBARNS to get his feet wet around two turns before eventually making his stakes debut in a major Kentucky Derby prep race. After easily winning that race at Tampa, Pletcher then opted to send KINGSBARNS to the Louisiana Derby on March 25 at Fair Grounds. That showed a lot of confidence, because from a timing standpoint, it largely precluded KINGSBARNS from running again before the Kentucky Derby, putting KINGSBARNS in a position where he basically must win the Louisiana Derby in order to be assured of making the Kentucky Derby field. Note that Pletcher avoided that situation with TAPIT TRICE, sending that one to the Tampa Bay Derby and leaving time for another race (even though KINGSBARNS had just won the allowance race over the Tampa surface). TAPIT TRICE then ended up winning the Tampa Bay Derby, and later won the Blue Grass Stakes.
KINGSBARNS made Pletcher's decision (and my initial opinion of KINGSBARNS) look good by winning the Louisiana Derby at very generous +450 odds, winning by three lengths in gate-to-wire fashion while never seriously challenged. It should be noted that prior to winning the Louisiana Derby, KINGSBARNS had worked in company with the older 4yo colt BRIGHT FUTURE (who won his debut for us at +400 odds last year), as BRIGHT FUTURE came out of that drill with KINGSBARNS to win an allowance race on the Florida Derby undercard, and has most recently worked several times in a row with the consensus Derby favorite FORTE since that race (also note that BRIGHT FUTURE is entered in Race 3 today). Meanwhile, KINGSBARNS has worked several times in a row with today's Race 9 entrant MAJOR DUDE (who seems to be improving, and has looked good when working with KINGSBARNS).
Bottom line, KINGSBARNS is a very talented colt with a fair amount of speed, which should help to keep him out of traffic (assuming he breaks well, and he broke very well in the Louisiana Derby last time out). KINGSBARNS figures to be sent along early from his inside position, and with his natural speed, I would guess he'll be able to find a decent position by the time they reach the first turn. Note that in all three of KINGSBARNS' races, he has yet to receive a normal, stalk-from-the-outside type of trip, and he is certainly eligible to improve with one of those. In addition to his speed, KINGSBARNS also seems likely to benefit from the longer 1 1/4-mile distance, as he has consistently finished strongly in all of his races and workouts, including over the local Churchill Downs surface this week. Good value on this prime contender at the double-digit morning line price.
#14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE (8/1 ml)
The top entrant for Brad Cox (who came close to winning this race a couple of years ago with MANDALOUN and ESSENTIAL QUALITY), this horse is actually being ridden by Flavien Prat, who rode our pick KINGSBARNS in the Louisiana Derby. Prat has had some close finishes in prior Kentucky Derbys, so that probably works in this one's favor. ANGEL OF EMPIRE isn't very quick early, but he does have some nice acceleration, and he has looked good late in his recent races (particularly the Arkansas Derby), giving the impression that he may improve with the extra distance here.
#8 MAGE (15/1 ml)
I was somewhat tipped off about MAGE before his Jan. 28 debut, when a well-connected person asked my opinion of him, perhaps especially so because MAGE wasn't from one of the larger barns, and there was no video of him available. So it wasn't a huge surprise when MAGE scored an impressive gate-to-wire win at 11/1 odds. MAGE looked great in winning that race, showing keen speed before finishing up strongly at the 7-furlong distance, while still showing good energy at the finish despite the fast time. It was for that reason I picked MAGE behind FORTE in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby (he completed the exacta behind FORTE in the latter race).
In fairness to MAGE, the Fountain of Youth was a very tough spot for him, facing the 2yo champ FORTE in just his second career start, while also making his first start around two turns. MAGE ran a very creditable race that day, showing good determination even in losing (after a rough trip), so it wasn't a shock when MAGE built upon that experience by making a big mid-race move in the Florida Derby (after another slow start), briefly taking the lead in midstretch before eventually being overtaken by FORTE. In that race, MAGE showed sharp acceleration when launching that big middle move, and I think people forget how quick MAGE is because he hasn't led since his maiden win (after breaking slowly in his two route races).
Drawn just to the outside of KINGSBARNS, I wouldn't be surprised if MAGE flashes some early speed (assuming he breaks better this time), and perhaps tries to sit just off KINGSBARNS, who figures to be motoring early from his inside position. Both horses are naturally fast, so it makes sense for it to happen that way, assuming they both break well. I'm less convinced MAGE will be as strong in the later portions of this race as KINGSBARNS will be, but MAGE will be a larger price, and he could very easily be a factor in the stretch of this race, just as he was in the Florida Derby.
#5 TAPIT TRICE (5/1 ml)
As mentioned above, TAPIT TRICE has looked good all spring, beginning with a nice allowance win over the maiden winner SHESTERKIN at Gulfstream (where TAPIT TRICE looked good late), then also scoring sharp late wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. TAPIT TRICE showed more speed than usual in his most recent race, and Pletcher indicated afterward they would try to do so again in the Kentucky Derby, but the truth is that TAPIT TRICE just isn't very quick early, and with him being drawn pretty far inside, he appears a candidate to get buried in traffic after a potential slow break, which can cause him some major problems here.
The good news is that TAPIT TRICE is a talented horse, and he always seems capable of finding a late rush, even after looking sluggish early (like he did in the Tampa Bay Derby). TAPIT TRICE has also looked better training recently over the local Churchill Downs surface than I think I've ever seen from him. So he appears in top shape, and seems likely to appreciate the longer distance.
