2021 NFL Team Previews: New Orleans Saints

2021 NFL Team Previews: New Orleans Saints

This article is part of our Team Previews series.

New Orleans Saints

Moving on from future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees won't be easy with Michael Thomas recovering from ankle surgery, but Alvin Kamara should keep the offense afloat behind a stacked offensive line.

Offseason Moves

Key Acquisitions

Blocking tight end was the only replacement for Jared Cook.

Could be useful while Michael Thomas is sidelined.

Likely steps into a starting role and IDP relevance from the jump.

  • Ian Book – QB (Rd. 4, No. 133 – Notre Dame)

Mobile quarterback will be No. 3 on the depth chart all year long.

Toolsy prospect landed in about as good of a situation as possible.

Key Losses

New Orleans legend hangs up his cleats after 20 pro seasons.

The 34-year-old wideout saw 82 targets as the No. 2 WR in 2020.

Exit opens the door for Adam Trautman to head the TE corps.

A Look Under the Hood

Head Coach: Sean Payton (Year 15)

Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael (Year 13) - West Coast Offense

Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen (Year 7) - 4-3 scheme

2021 Vegas Projected Wins: 9.5 (T-11th)

   

2020 Record: 12-4

2020 Points Scored: 482 (5th)

2020 Points Allowed: 337 (5th)

2020 Point Differential: +145 (2nd)

2020 Run-Play Rate: 46.9 percent (5th)

2020 Offensive Snaps: 1,045 (10th)

2020 PFF O-Line Ranking: No. 8

Full 2020 Team Stats

   

Projected 2021 Depth Chart

QB: Jameis Winston / Taysom Hill / Ian Book

RB: Alvin Kamara / Latavius Murray / Devonta Freeman / Dwayne Washington

WR1: Michael Thomas / Marquez Callaway

WR2: Tre'Quan Smith / Chris Hogan / Kawaan Baker

WR3: Deonte Harris / Ty Montgomery

TE: Adam Trautman / Nick Vannett

O-Line: LT Terron Armstead / LG Andrus Peat / C Erik McCoy / RG Cesar Ruiz / RT Ryan Ramczyk  (RotoWire Rank: No. 4)

Kicker: Wil Lutz

Full 2021 Depth Chart

Top Storylines

Changing of the Guard

After a decade and a half of having Drew Brees at quarterback, New Orleans is moving on with no clear successor in place. The stage is set for Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston to enter training camp and prove to coach Sean Payton which one is deserving enough to follow in Brees' footsteps.

When an injured Brees sat out Weeks 11-14 of last season, Hill, who boasted more experience in the system, got the call and kept the Saints on track for an NFC South title. Now that Winston will have more than a year to acclimate himself, it's anyone's guess who Payton will tab for the 2021 campaign.

Their contrasting styles of play will dictate what type of offense emerges post-Brees. Hill himself can operate the read option and make defenses respect his ability to take off and run. On the other hand, Winston won't do much on the ground, but he already has proved he can support two top-20 fantasy wide receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in 2019) at once.

Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, when healthy, probably will be fine, no matter who logs time under center, but complementary players like Tre'Quan Smith and Adam Trautman likely are best off working with a true pocket passer like Winston. Plus, coach Sean Payton can make use of Hill, whether or not he's starting at QB, but the same can't be said of Winston.

The Offensive Line Remains Elite

The uncertainty at quarterback is less of a problem when there are few questions along the offensive line. Between All-Pro right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, perennial Pro Bowlers on the left side in tackle Terron Armstead and guard Andrus Peat, and two high draft picks in right guard Cesar Ruiz (first round, 2020) and center Erik McCoy (second round, 2019), New Orleans is loaded at every position.

While it's fair to have concerns over the ability of Armstead and Peat to stay healthy as they approach their 30th birthdays, the Saints also have quality depth on board with the versatile James Hurst and 2020 first-team All-SEC tackle Landon Young. Altogether, there are few other units in the NFL that can compare to the brick wall New Orleans has assembled, giving the winner of the battle between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill a foundation to find success.

In turn, not only should Alvin Kamara keep producing at an elite clip – especially with Michael Thomas expected to sit out the first month of the season and potentially not himself when he is available – it should steady the boat for Winston or Hill. Throw in the fact that the Saints now have two quality blocking tight ends in Nick Vannett and Adam Trautman, and Kamara might be in store for some of the best running lanes he's ever seen.

How Will the Saints Fare without Michael Thomas?

Even before it was known that Michael Thomas would miss time, there wasn't a position on the Saints roster that seemed more in need of a boost than wide receiver. Without the departed Emmanuel Sanders, the best New Orleans has behind Thomas is 2018 third-round pick Tre'Quan Smith, who has yet to top 500 receiving yards in any of his three seasons.

Behind Smith is a slew of undrafted depth pieces in Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway and Juwan Johnson, while veteran Chris Hogan was the most significant receiver the team signed in free agency and seventh-round rookie Kawaan Baker was the only notable draft pick. More than one of these players could step up as a surprise fantasy contributor this fall.

Smith is the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 option until Thomas returns after regularly commanding two-thirds of the offensive snaps in 2020. Meanwhile, Harris has flashed as a playmaker in space, both Callaway and Johnson likely deserve a closer look after holding their own as rookies last year, and Hogan previously averaged 9.6 yards per target in three seasons with the Patriots.

However, keep an eye on tight end Adam Trautman to help pick up the slack, as the second-year pro is set for a starting role after cranking out more than 1,500 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns in his final 22 games at Dayton between 2018 and 2019.

Barometer

⬆️  Rising: WR Tre'Quan Smith

New Orleans cut wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason, and Michael Thomas now is rehabbing after a June ankle procedure. As a result, Smith seems like a good bet to top his career-high 50 targets from 2020.

⬇️  Falling: WR Michael Thomas

Currently in recovery mode, Thomas is slated for a multi-game absence to start the upcoming season. Upon his return to the lineup, it's possible the Saints slowly work him back into the fold until he's 100 percent.

😴  Sleeper: TE Adam Trautman

Trautman finished his rookie year as the No. 1 run blocking tight end, according to Pro Football Focus. With Jared Cook and Josh Hill out of the picture, Trautman should experience a huge jump in his 16 targets to date as a pro.

🌟  Pivotal Player: Alvin Kamara

Firmly in his prime, Kamara turned 26 in July, and coach Sean Payton may lean on the running back as the franchise transitions following the retirement of Drew Brees. With Thomas expected to miss at least the first few weeks of the year, Kamara could top the 18.1 touches per game that he's seen over the last three campaigns.

Medical Tent

WR Michael Thomas

Thomas missed a number of games at the beginning of the 2020 season due to a high-ankle sprain. While he managed to play in eight of the final 11 contests of the year, his recovery plan evidently required ankle surgery that he didn't receive until June. Because Thomas reportedly needs roughly four months from the date of the procedure to get back on the field, it seems likely the All-Pro receiver will be sidelined for at least the first quarter of the upcoming season. Such a predicament pushes TreQuan Smith into the No. 1 receiving role for the time being.

QB Taysom Hill

Hill missed the final game of New Orleans' 2020 playoff run due to an unspecified knee injury. While the specifics of the issue remain vague, there weren't any mentions of Hill being hampered by a leg injury during OTAs or minicamp. However, despite not missing any games over the past three regular seasons with the Saints, Hill suffered four season-ending injuries in five years as the quarterback at BYU. If he wins the starting job over Jameis Winston, it'll be fair to question if Hill can last all year as a dual-threat quarterback.

WR Deonte Harris

Harris hurt his neck during the Saints' divisional-round loss to the Buccaneers in January. Thankfully, it appears he was only dealing with a stinger, and there's been no mention of any long-term neural damage. In fact, Harris was a full participant in offseason workouts and is under no limitations whatsoever entering training camp. With Thomas out to start the year, Harris should be ready to take advantage of the biggest opportunity of his professional career.

Job Battle

If we count Michael Thomas as the No. 1 receiver despite his expected absence during the beginning of the year, then TreQuan Smith seems to be the No. 2 option, and a slew of others are competing for the No. 3 job. With Juwan Johnson in a transition to tight end, the battle will most likely come down to Marquez Callaway versus Deonte Harris, while seventh-round rookie Kawaan Baker lurks as a dark-horse candidate.

Considering how little New Orleans did this offseason to bolster the position, it's clear that the Saints view all three as candidates to take the next step in their respective development plans. Still, in the wake of the Thomas news, the team ended up signing Chris Hogan, who combined for 22 catches in 12 games between the Panthers and Jets the last two years and recently suited up in the Premier Lacrosse League. It remains to be seen what the 34-year-old can contribute at this point, but once Thomas is back in the fold, the potential of Harris, Callaway and Baker could be impacted in a significant way.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Logan Larson
Logan is a data scientist who helps with Detroit Lions coverage and fantasy football projections at RotoWire.
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