FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We're set for a nine-game slate, one that features a number of games with average scoring expectations but one that also boasts one of the highest projected totals of the season. The injury report is a mixed bag as we'll detail further, with several notable names looking like 50/50 propositions to take the floor. However, the fact 18 teams are in action should still make it a fun night of lineup construction with an ample player pool to work with under any circumstance.

Slate Overview

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers (-4) (O/U: 211.5 points) 

Phoenix Suns (-5) at Indiana Pacers (O/U: 220.0 points) 

Toronto Raptors (-8) at Detroit Pistons (O/U: 214.5 points) 

Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets (-11.5) (O/U: 224.0 points) 

Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls (-4) (O/U: 223.5 points) 

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (-4.5) (O/U: 221.5 points) 

Cleveland Cavaliers (-3.5) at San Antonio Spurs (O/U: 220.0 points) 

Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies (-3) (O/U: 214.5 points) 

Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings (-4.5) (O/U: 238.0 points) 

Although oddsmakers are clearly projecting the night to be only about middle-of-the-road in terms of points, the good news is there should be plenty of competitive matchups if point spreads are accurate. The one projected blowout of the night - Magic-Hornets - could also be closer than expected if Charlotte's previously questionable defense snaps back to the mean after an impressive last few outings.

Even some of the matchups with lower projected totals could still feature plenty of notable individual performances. A prime example would be the Celtics-76ers clash, where stars like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Joel Embiid have repeatedly produced elite DFS scores even in lower-scoring contests. The same could certainly apply with the Mavericks-Grizzlies with the likes of Luka Doncic and Ja Morant on the floor.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section. 

Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

In Porzingis' expected absence, Maxi Kleber is expected to start at power forward while Doncic, Tim Hardaway and Jalen Brunson should see even higher usage than usual. 

Jimmy Butler, MIA (ankle): QUESTIONABLE 

If Butler were to sit out, Caleb Martin could be the primary beneficiary as the starting small forward while the usage of the remainder of the starting five should increase.

Clint Capela, ATL (ankle): OUT

With Capela out, Onyeka Okongwu could draw another start at center, while the usage of the remainder of the starting five should see a bump.

Draymond Green, GSW (calf): OUT

With Green sidelined, Juan Toscano-Anderson or Otto Porter could enter the starting five.

Malcolm Brogdon, IND (Achilles): QUESTIONABLE 

If Brogdon is unable to return to action, Caris LeVert could work at point guard while Chris Duarte could handle starting shooting guard duties.

Other notable injuries: 

Derrick White, SAN (COVID-19 protocols): QUESTIONABLE 

Marcus Smart, BOS (thigh/COVID-19 protocols): QUESTIONABLE 

Richaun Holmes, SAC (conditioning): QUESTIONABLE 

Mo Bamba, ORL (toe): QUESTIONABLE 

Dillon Brooks, MEM (ankle): OUT 

Jerami Grant, DET (thumb): OUT 

Bam Adebayo, MIA (thumb): OUT 

Kelly Oubre, CHA (COVID-19 protocols): OUT 

Wendell Carter, ORL (hamstring): OUT 

Gary Trent, TOR (ankle): QUESTIONABLE 

Scottie Barnes, TOR (knee): QUESTIONABLE 

Cameron Johnson, PHO (ankle): QUESTIONABLE 

Kevin Huerter, ATL (foot): QUESTIONABLE 

Steven Adams, MEM (COVID-19 protocols): QUESTIONABLE 

Elite Players

We have five players with five-figure salaries on Friday's slate – Stephen Curry ($11,000), Joel Embiid ($10,700), Luka Doncic ($10,500), Dejounte Murray ($10,300) and Domantas Sabonis ($10,000)

Curry is averaging 45 FD points per and naturally offers 50-plus FD-point upside, but he's coming off a sub-30-FD-point dud against the Bucks last night.

Embiid dropped 38.7 FD across 32 minutes against the Hornets in a double-digit loss on Wednesday, but he'd been over 50 in six of the previous seven - including two over 60.

Doncic has produced 41.7 to 62.1 FD points in the last four appearances and boasts a 37.9 percent usage rate without Porzingis.

Murray exploded for 69.5 FD points against the Rockets over 36 minutes on Wednesday and also posted over 50 in three of the previous four. Although the Cavs are a tough defense, their point guard D has been vulnerable this season.

Sabonis has scored over 50 FD points in three straight before dipping to 38.2 against the Celtics on Wednesday, although he impressively did that in 31 minutes.

Expected Chalk

In addition to the players just mentioned, other likely chalk plays include:

Trae Young, ATL ($9,900) 

Young has slumped - relatively speaking - to 39.1 to 25.1 FD points in the last two games, but he should still remain popular based on name value. 

Pascal Siakam, TOR ($9,800) 

Siakam has produced 45.9 or more FD points in six of the last eight contests and faces a favorable matchup against the Pistons, which should make him one of the most popular high-four-figure selections.

Fred VanVleet, TOR ($9,700) 

VanVleet has scored 46.8 to 71 FD points in five of the last seven and should remain in plenty of lineups as one of the best potential fantasy-point-per-dollar values on the high end of the player pool.

Ja Morant, MEM ($9,700) 

Morant has posted 51 FD points or more in three of the last six. Even though he's also underdelivered relative to salary in the other three outings, the buzz around him should keep him in plenty of lineups.

Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,700) 

Tatum managed 55.4 FD points Wednesday against the Pacers and also delivered 63.7 four games ago while going over 40 in two prior meetings with the 76ers.

Jaylen Brown, BOS ($8,900) 

Brown has eclipsed 50 FD points in two of the last three appearances and has averaged 48 thus far in 2022, making him a great value at his salary.

Key Values 

Jae'Sean Tate, HOU at SAC ($5,600)

Tate has seen his production take some pretty notable swings recently, as he's interspersed a trio of performances of 21 FD points or fewer with five ranging from 26.4 to 42.4. Zooming out to a 14-game sample, he's averaged a solid 27.2 FD points per contest while shooting an efficient 51.7 percent - including 37.8 percent from three-point range. Tate draws a very appealing matchup against the Kings, considering the game carries the slate's highest projected total and Sacramento ranking 28th in offensive efficiency allowed. The Kings also sit in the bottom half in three-point shooting percentage allowed at home (35.2) and have conceded 46.8 FD points per contest to power forwards, leaving Tate one of the best potential sub-$6K value options.

P.J. Tucker, MIA vs. ATL ($5,400) 

Tucker has stepped up his contributions in the midst of Jimmy Butler's ongoing injury woes and he'll enter tonight having averaged 28.6 FD points over his last 10 games. Tucker has put up a well-rounded line of 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.0 steal across 31.4 minutes during that span, including 27.4 against the same Hawks squad on Wednesday. Atlanta will be missing Clint Capela in the frontcourt again, and the club checks in giving up 46.2 FD points per contest to power forwards and the seventh-highest offensive efficiency to the position (27.8 percent).

Robin Lopez, ORL at CHA ($4,700) 

Lopez could draw another start with Mo Bamba listed as questionable with a toe injury, giving him an opportunity to build upon the 35.2 FD points he posted Wednesday. Lopez has averaged 30.1 FD points on the strength of 14.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.2 blocks per 31.3 minutes over the six contests he's started this season, and the matchup against the sieve-like Hornets frontcourt could hardly be better. Charlotte has yielded the fourth-highest offensive efficiency to centers (34.7 percent) along with an Eastern Conference-high 58.9 FD points per game to the position.

ALSO CONSIDER: Tyler Herro, MIA vs. ATL ($7,300); Jalen Green, HOU at SAC ($4,900); Gary Harris, ORL at CHA ($4,800) 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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