Jeremy Pena

26-Year-Old ShortstopSS

Houston Astros

2024 Stats

AVG

.330

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Pena fanned less and walked more than he did in his rookie season. Pena's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were essentially the same. However, he flattened his swing, resulting in more grounders and a three mph drop in flyball average exit velocity, cutting his HR/FB mark in half. The change helped boost his BABIP by 25 points, but Pena's power was crushed as he left the yard only 10 times, 12 fewer times than his first season, despite 76 more plate appearances. He stole two more bases, but he profiled as someone who would take advantage of the new rules. It was sage to expect Pena to fall short of his freshman season, but the way he did it was curious, morphing into an extreme groundball hitter. From a fantasy perspective, Pena's transition is better for batting average, but he doesn't steal ample bases to be a top tier shortstop unless he reverts to hitting more flyballs. Pena is why tracking stats when drafting is precarious. He's likely going to be a fantasy asset, but the distribution of his stats has a wide range of possibilities. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#233

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'0"

Weight 202

DOB 9/22/1997

Born Santo Domingo, DR

College Maine

Drafted 3rd Rd 2018 HOU

Nabs fourth steal

SSHouston Astros

April 20, 2024

Pena went 2-for-4 with an RBI and a stolen base in Saturday's 5-4 extra-inning loss to the Nationals.

ANALYSIS
The shortstop stole his second bag in as many games as he continued his recent hot streak. Pena has six multi-hit performances in the last 11 games, batting .383 (18-for-47) over that stretch, and the surge has boosted his slash line on the season to .356/.385/.483 with two homers, four steals, 10 RBI and 11 runs.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+21%

OPS vs LHP

2024

+11%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+27%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+22%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.821	356	60	10	37	8	.307	.348	.473
Since 2022vs Right	.677	928	104	24	88	20	.248	.297	.380
2024vs Left	.747	30	3	0	2	1	.310	.333	.414
2024vs Right	.829	68	8	2	8	3	.338	.368	.462
2023vs Left	.834	174	29	3	16	5	.325	.368	.466
2023vs Right	.655	457	52	7	36	8	.239	.307	.348
2022vs Left	.822	152	28	7	19	2	.286	.329	.493
2022vs Right	.675	403	44	15	44	9	.241	.274	.402
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+5%

OPS at Home

2024

+77%

OPS at Home

2023

+8%

OPS on Road

2022

+8%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.735	645	84	21	68	19	.263	.314	.421
Since 2022Away	.699	639	80	13	57	9	.266	.309	.391
2024Home	1.006	54	7	2	7	0	.380	.426	.580
2024Away	.568	44	4	0	3	4	.273	.273	.295
2023Home	.679	316	41	5	26	10	.242	.314	.365
2023Away	.731	315	40	5	26	3	.284	.333	.397
2022Home	.743	275	36	14	35	9	.262	.291	.452
2022Away	.686	280	36	8	28	2	.244	.287	.399
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Stat Review

How does Jeremy Pena compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.19

BB Rate

3.1%

K Rate

16.3%

BABIP

.382

ISO

.117

AVG

.330

OBP

.357

SLG

.447

OPS

.804

wOBA

.354

Exit Velocity

89.6 mph

Hard Hit Rate

26.9%

Barrels/PA

3.1%

Expected BA

.341

Expected SLG

.478

Sprint Speed

25.1 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

41.0%

Line Drive %

29.5%

Fly Ball %

29.5%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Jeremy Pena Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Chance to bat leadoff?

SSHouston Astros

March 19, 2023

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle listed Pena as a candidate to hit leadoff with Jose Altuve set to miss the start of the season due to a broken thumb.

ANALYSIS
Pena had a .253/.289/.426 slash line with 22 home runs, 63 RBI and 11 steals in 136 games as a rookie last season, with his most common spots in the batting order being second and seventh, respectively. Houston will have a massive hole atop the lineup with Altuve out until at least mid-May, and Pena could provide some pop during the absence. However, if manager Dusty Baker prioritizes on-base ability, it could be the likes of Alex Bregman who moves to the top spot.

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

Pena had the task of replacing the void left by Carlos Correa's departure in free agency over the winter. Pena had no major league experience coming into the season and had just 160 plate appearances at the minor league level the previous season, but finished the season slightly better than league average with a 102 wRC+. Few would have projected him with double-digit steals let alone double-digit homers, yet the rookie did both hitting more homers in 2022 than he had in his professional baseball career from 2018-2021 and stole more bases than he did in 2019 and 2021 combined. He didn't accept many walks in Triple-A in 2021 and accepted even fewer as a rookie while striking out often, but the Houston lineup was deep enough to absorb these risks and keep his excellent defense in the lineup as often as it was. The profile is rather reminscent of a younger Javier Baez with perhaps a little more contact, but the same types of risks apply with the conditions ripe for a sophomore slump.

Pena would have been excused for having a lost season in 2021 after undergoing wrist surgery in April, but he returned in August and did enough damage at Triple-A to be firmly on the redraft radar with the offseason departure of Carlos Correa. Seen as more of a glove-first, light-hitting shortstop in 2019, Pena transformed his body over the last two seasons and he's now a ripped 6-foot, 202 pounds and has a chance to regularly impact the baseball. Pena hit .287/.346/.598 with 10 home runs, five steals (on six attempts), a 26.3 K% and a 4.5 BB% in 30 games at Triple-A, good for a 126 wRC+. As an above-average runner with improving power and a clear path to playing time, Pena is a viable mid-round pick in 50-round draft and holds and an endgame option in competitive 15-teamers. He has sacrificed his hit tool to unlock this power, and there is some risk that he could post a harmful batting average if he wins the starting shortstop job in spring training.

Pena was selected in the third round of the 2018 draft on the strength of his shortstop defense, and with each ensuing year he has made enough offensive strides to keep the dream of him becoming an everyday MLB shortstop alive. He impressed all summer at the alternate training site and then capped a strong 2020 season with a quality showing in the Dominican winter league. If he hits enough to play every day, Pena has the speed to steal 15-20 bases annually. At 6-foot, 202 pounds, Pena has the potential to tap into 20-homer power, but he figures to always be hit over power. He has always logged strikeout rates below 20 percent and is a career .290 hitter in the minors. Look for him to spend his age-23 season at Double-A and Triple-A, setting up a potential 2022 MLB debut.

If Pena were a couple years younger, he would be a much more exciting prospect, but we are forced to wait and see how the 22-year-old shortstop handles his first exposure to Double-A before jumping in with two feet. A plus defender, Pena was drafted in the third round in 2018 for his glove, but he has added muscle and did all he could with his bat to prove he can hit enough to be a regular. He logged a 138 wRC+ with excellent plate skills at Low-A. After his promotion to High-A, he had a 146 wRC+ with fewer strikeouts (17.8 K%) and much fewer walks (6.5 BB%). Pena is pretty good at using the whole field, but his linedrive rate was below-average at both stops. His ability to make contact at a solid clip combined with his above-average speed (20-for-30 on SB attempts) makes him interesting. However, even with his defensive chops, he probably needs a trade to have a realistic shot at being an everyday player.

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