This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 1-1, -1.40 RWBucks
Season: 95-101-8, -16.15 RWBucks
After Kike Hernandez sullied what would have been a big win on the Astros run line Friday night with his ninth-inning homer, we'll try to bounce back with Saturday's LCS matchups.
Red Sox at Astros, ALCS Game 2
Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Luis Garcia
The Pick: Astros over 4 total runs (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Jose Altuve over 1.5 Total Bases (+125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 2 RWBucks
Eovaldi has been very good in the postseason (2.61 ERA) and was mostly a steady performer during the regular season, but he was tagged for 11 hits and five runs the one time he faced Houston in 2021. What's more, he's allowed current Astros hitters a collective .370 average and 1.035 OPS in 72 career plate appearances, with Altuve one of his biggest tormentors. The hot-hitting infielder, who's batting .316 average with four XBH and six RBIs this postseason, has a .318 average with a double and three homers off Eovaldi in 24 career plate appearances while only striking out three times.
Dodgers at Braves, NLCS Game 1
Starting Pitchers: Corey Knebel (opener)/Tony Gonsolin (primary pitcher) vs. Max Fried
The Pick: Braves Over 3.5 runs (-124 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Braves moneyline (-104 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
The Dodgers have pivoted from Max Scherzer to a bullpen-type arrangement for Game 1, with Knebel and his impressive 4-0 mark, 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP set to start the contest. Gonsolin, who had a rough time in last year's postseason run with an 8.68 ERA and 1.93 WHIP across 9.1 innings, is expected to get the call for the bulk assignment after last pitching Sept. 30. The Braves posted a .330 wOBA against visiting righties the last month of the regular season and Gonsolin was a bit more hittable on the road (3.86 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) this season as well, putting me in the corner of the couple of wagers that involve the Braves thriving, especially with the red-hot Fried on the hill.
