This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 3-1 +2.1
Overall 62-45 +8.62
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals 7:10 pm et
Mahle has been the 6th most profitable F5 pitcher on the season with a 11-3-5 record (+642.84). The Reds as a team have one of the biggest run differentials home vs. road on F5 with 3.35/1.87. He has had great success against the Cardinals this year and LeBlanc is a gas can waiting to get lit on fire in one of the best hitting parks in baseball.
BET – Reds -0.5 F5 (-125 DraftKings) for 1 RW buck
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals 8:10 pm et
Conventional thinking says the Royals and Tigers are close to even so the Royals should be favored at home, right? In my opinion, wrong as I think the Tigers should actually be favored in this matchup tonight. The Tigers have been mashing on offense for most of July especially against left-handed pitching and Bubic has an 8.48 ERA, 1.81 WHIP over his last 8 starts. Peralta has been super sneaky in F5's with a 5-1 record and +680 profit.
BET – Tigers -0.5 F5 (+120 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers 8:10 pm et
Lucas Giolito vs. Freddy Peralta
One of my system plays I have mentioned before is – 2 stud pitchers, low total, close money line, National League Park. The system play is you take the under F5 when this situation becomes available. It has been good to me all year and I will go back to it again. The Brewers opened -120 / 7.5 and the number has moved up to -130ish. I would not be surprised if this total dropped to 7 which means you are getting at least ½ run of value on the F5.
BET – White Sox/Brewers under 4 runs (-105 BetMGM) F5 for 1 RW buck
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners 10:10 pm et
Frankie Montas vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Both teams thrive in this situation tonight as the A's are 16-7 as road favorites and the Mariners are 20-12 as home dogs. The A's are 10-2 to the under in their last 12 games and the Mariners are 18-11-1 to the under in their last 30 at home. Going with a trends play here even though 7.5 runs in this environment is a tad low.
BET – Athletics / Mariners under 7.5 runs (-105) for 1 RW buck
