Farm Futures: Top 400 Update

Last week I completed a thorough update of the top 400 prospect rankings and I made some minor updates Monday morning. I hate relying on small samples whenever I'm updating the top 400, which is why my favorite time to fine-tune the list is during the offseason. However, it's undeniable that the dynasty value of the prospects who are at least playing in the majors is changing ever so slightly on a weekly, if not daily, basis. There are also occasional reports on prospects who are playing at the alternate training sites, and those can lead to a shift in a player's value as well.

GRADUATIONS

Dustin May, Austin Hays, Mitch Keller, Kyle Wright, Kyle Lewis and Nick Solak are the top graduates thus far this season. 

ADDITIONS

Randy Dobnak (242), Thomas Hatch (253), Tucker Davidson (270), Enoli Paredes (293), Brandon Bielak (313), Blake Taylor (332) and Sam Delaplane (399) have all been added to the rankings over the past couple weeks. 

I know Dobnak doesn't strike guys out, but he also has a long track record of preventing runs and baserunners in the minors. Having a high K-rate isn't a prerequisite for being a useful mixed-league fantasy starter, and while the lack of K's puts a cap on his upside, I think he has a chance to be a solid MLB starter for a long time. His team context is also pretty close to ideal.

Bielak is essentially a lesser version of Dobnak, and his value is almost all tied to the short term. Any MLB starter who is good enough to be streamed is good enough to be ranked in the top 400, especially in this crazy season where guys are dropping like flies.

Hatch is a big sleeper for me. He excelled after getting dealt from the Cubs to the Blue Jays last season, as the Jays had him emphasize his changeup (shown below) more, which led to a spike in groundball rate and overall effectiveness. Toronto jumped him over Triple-A (not that Triple-A was an option this year) and I've been really impressed in the looks I've gotten. He has No. 3 starter upside.

Paredes is more talked about than Hatch, but he has serious upward momentum, as I could see him taking over the closing duties in Houston in the near future. He reminds me a little of Edwin Diaz — electric stuff and shaky command. When he is on, he can dominate, but maintaining consistency will be key.

Davidson has been on and off the top 400 over the past year or two, but right now he is trending up, having added velocity at Driveline and improved his slider. I expect him to join the Braves' rotation sometime soon.

Taylor wasn't a prospect I was even tracking coming into the year, but he has been the Astros' best reliever this season and while I don't expect him to be the closer, he could vulture wins and get the occasional save. Again, if I'm considering rostering a guy in a redraft league, he needs to be on the top 400.

Delaplane may not debut this year, but he is the best bet to be the Mariners closer of the future, unless they pull the plug on Sheffield in the rotation.

NEW NO. 2

Luis Robert has been striking out about as much as I expected, but I still like what I've seen with regards to his approach. He knows how pitchers want to attack him (breaking balls away), and while he will still chase at times, he doesn't look lost at all. His bat speed allows him to still catch up to most fastballs over the plate while protecting against offspeed stuff. His batting average will undoubtedly tick down over the rest of the season, so I don't want to hear from the BABIP police. The big reason he jumped Gavin Lux, Julio Rodriguez and Jo Adell is that he is clearly one of the top two or three guys in fantasy for stolen bases for the foreseeable future. He gets excellent reads and jumps and he is always looking to run. This is happening NOW. He is helping teams win their fantasy leagues NOW. That has to matter, because while I think Lux has the better hit tool and Rodriguez might have the better combination of tools (++ hit, ++ power, 50 speed), they aren't helping teams now and even if Lux came up Monday, he would not out-earn Robert this year.

AHEAD OF SCHEDULE

I bumped Luis Patino (31) and Josiah Gray (43) up because they are ahead of schedule with regards to ETA. Patino is already up (and still overrated by many) and Gray should be up sooner rather than later. I don't think Patino belongs in the Dustin May/Spencer Howard/Matt Manning conversation because I worry about his frame holding up, given how hard he throws, but he beat MacKenzie Gore to the majors, which I didn't anticipate. I used to have Gray in the Grayson Rodriguez/Edward Cabrera range, expecting that trio to reach the majors at approximately the same time, but Gray is much further along than those two, which is good for fantasy but also speaks to his development.

TRENDING UP

Edwin Rios (91), Jake Cronenworth (102), James Karinchak (104), Brady Singer (133), Cristian Javier (135), Patrick Sandoval (145), David Peterson (150), Andres Gimenez (151) and Brusdar Graterol (152) are all trending up based on what they've done this season.

Rios was a priority add for me in draft-and-holds all spring and a trade target in dynasty leagues this past winter due to his Statcast data. He was a priority add for Clay Link and I in the NFBC Main Event (after we drafted and dropped him) this past weekend because with Max Muncy struggling due to a broken finger, it's conceivable that Rios could start playing close to every day. His raw power is up there with anyone in the game. 

Cronenworth probably has a plus hit tool and is clearly the Padres' best second baseman. He could finish the year with a very appealing combination of positional eligibility due to the fact he has also seen time at first base.

Karinchack and Graterol look like future closers — we knew Karinchak was trending in that direction, but it's nice to get confirmation.

Singer, Javier, Sandoval, Peterson are all about the same for me in dynasty and redraft. They are guys you want to start in good matchups and guys you ideally sit in tough matchups. One or two could emerge as true 'set it and forget it' types, but that should not be the expectation.

Gimenez is on a heater right now and his speed is an asset, but I don't buy him being a league average hitter this year. He is more of a short-term speed play than anything else.

TRENDING DOWN

My favorite pitching prospect in the game is Forrest Whitley, but he is no longer my top ranked pitching prospect, as he is dealing with an arm injury. I'm assuming the worst. Even if he gets Tommy John surgery, he'll stay in the top 50, but it's a big setback as he was throwing as good as he had in a couple years prior to the injury. 

Jasson Dominguez, who was the talk of the card collecting industry earlier this year, posted a troubling video to Instagram recently. Chris Welsh and I discussed it at length here:

The main takeaway is that whether natural or not, he got too big in the arms and legs, and I now question his decision making. The concerns over how his body will age have been amplified. His swing is as sweet as ever, but he is already more muscular than most big-league outfielders, which is not a good thing.

Sam Hilliard and Sean Murphy are off to rocky starts, striking out way too much. Unlike Evan White, who is also striking out way too much, Hilliard and Murphy don't have the excuse of being jumped over Triple-A and thrown into the fire. I believe they will both figure it out, but they are undeniably trending in the wrong direction.

PADRES OUTFIELDERS

I bumped Taylor Trammell up on the last update in part because it just felt right — he needs to be with Brandon Marsh and Heliot Ramos — and in part because there have been nothing but positive reviews from the past calendar year, including Spring Training 1.0 and Summer Camp. The Padres will have an everyday spot for him for when he is ready. I'm not sold that he will be the player some are expecting, but he just needs to hit around .265 to be an asset on the bases and he will chip in some power too.

Trent Grisham is no longer prospect eligible, but I've been noticing some people asking about trading him in what would amount to "sell high" trades. I strongly advise against this unless someone is willing to treat him like a top-50 player in dynasty. He's legit. His speed was undersold coming into the year and not enough attention was given to what he did at Double-A and Triple-A last year.