RotoSynthesis Blog Posts for Chris Liss

Week 10 Observations

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:00 PM 0000

We've beaten to death Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th and 2 in Sunday night's game (the best take on it I've seen is here), but the real takeaway is how much Cris Collinsworth, Al Michaels, Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison felt it was their duty to spout the conventional wisdom without even attempting to analyze Belichick's basis for the decision. Throw in Bob Costas, and it's appalling that five guys collectively making more than $10 million a year to interpret the sport for us didn't even consider the issue from a probability standpoint. Sadly, the NBC crew is probably the best one on TV. (Update: Jon Gruden just defended Belichick's call on MNF - good for him).

Week 9 Observations

Mon, 9 Nov 2009 49:00 PM 0000

These will be brief since I just got off a plane to NY and have to catch up on some other stuff.

The Intelligence of Randy Moss and Tom Brady

Sat, 7 Nov 2009 41:00 PM 0000

Insightful commentary by Bill Belichick about why Moss and Brady are all-time greats. Also, my favorite player, Lawrence Taylor, and Emmitt Smith. (h/t Scott Pianowski).

Week 8 Observations

Mon, 2 Nov 2009 08:00 AM 0000

The Giants are broken right now, and it's unclear how long they will take to fix. Eli Manning insists his foot isn't bothering him, but the entire team on both sides of the ball is out of sync. The home game against the Chargers next week might be just what the doctor ordered for the offense, but unless the Giants generate a bigger pass rush, find a solution at free safety and get linebacker Michael Boley back to help out in coverage, Philip Rivers will light them up. No one on the team except Corey Webster (and occasionally Terrell Thomas) can cover anyone right now.

Week 7 Observations

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 23:00 PM 0000

If you drafted upside players like Miles Austin, Michael Crabtree, Chris Wells or Shonn Greene, it was nearly impossible to keep them through the early part of the season, but now it's paying off. I dropped Austin who I drafted in three leagues, and Crabtree in one, but I did hold onto Greene in two. With Leon Washington out for the year, and the Jets likely to rein in Mark Sanchez, Greene should be one of the better timeshare backs in the league.

Hall of Fame WRs

Sat, 24 Oct 2009 57:00 AM 0000

Continuing the theme from some previous posts, let's take a look at the active WRs who might wind up in Canton.

It's About Time the MSM Caught on to Joe Torre's Act

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 28:00 AM 0000

Finally, a major media outlet dares to question Joe Torre's record over the last decade. Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan is one of the few that doesn't mindlessly parrot the conventional wisdom, so it's not surprising that he authored the column - even if it is two years after many of us had been saying the same thing.

Week 6 Observations

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 20:00 AM 0000

How good is Chris Johnson? He rushed for 128 yards in a 59-0 loss. So much for the favorite announcer stat (used to justify the supreme importance of the running game) where every time running back x gets 100 yards, his team wins. Luckily for me, I got the Titans at +60 due to some late line movement.

Embarrassment of Riches

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 54:00 AM 0000

I'm in a 12-team NFL.com Expert League, and I have too many good players. The team is 5-0 and has 100 points more than the next highest team. This is a good problem to have, but it's hard to decide who to start each week, and I'm trying to put together 2-for-1 and 3-for-2 trades to make my decisions easier and my overall starters better. It's a 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1 FLEX, PPR league. Here's the team:

Week 5 Observations

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 09:00 PM 0000

Joseph Addai/Donald Brown are the AFC version of Tim Hightower/Beanie Wells - everyone knows which player is the better runner, but the vet is the team's dump-off option in the flat and gets most of the work.

Use late-game players at your own peril. Mike Sims-Walker was deactivated at the last minute because he violated the team's itinerary, and a couple weeks ago Steve Breaston, who was likely to start in place of Anquan Boldin, was a last-minute scratch, and Boldin played. At least with players in the early games, you have plenty of subs to choose from (even from your waiver wire). Not so with late-game scratches.

Active Hall of Fame Pitchers

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 21:00 AM 0000

A couple weeks ago, I speculated on Hall of Fame quarterbacks from the current era. Let's do the same with active pitchers.

NFL Midseason Draft

Thu, 8 Oct 2009 31:00 AM 0000

A few of us got together last night to do a 10-team midseason draft. It was standard scoring (no PPR), and we start 1 Team QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1 TE, 1 Team K. It was 20 rounds, and it's a best-ball format, i.e., you get your ideal starting lineup every week. There are no add/drops, trades or moves of any kind.

Thanks to Yahoo! Sports' Scott Pianowski for setting it up.

Week 4 Observations

Mon, 5 Oct 2009 45:00 AM 0000

We already had the Giants Steve Smith in the top 20, but is he really a top-five receiver going forward? I'd say no and put him in the latter half of the top-10 because rarely does a receiver with his physical skill set (excellent route-running/hands, decent speed, average size) put up huge numbers all year. The exceptions are receivers who play with Peyton Manning, receivers who played in the Greatest Show on Turf and Jerry Rice while playing with Joe Montana and Steve Young (though Rice was probably a little faster). If Eli Manning plays at this level all year, and the Giants throw the ball all year, Smith can be top five. But top 10, i.e., Derrick Mason in his best seasons, is probably more realistic. And not a bad thing by any means.

NBA RotoWire 150

Sat, 3 Oct 2009 50:00 PM 0000

We took submissions from three of our main hoops writers. Here are their rankings for an eight-category league:

RotoWire NBA Mock Draft

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 46:00 PM 0000

The RotoWire/NBA.com Expert Draft took place on Tuesday, September 29, in one of MockDraftCentral.com's first-rate draft rooms.

Standard 8-categories: PTS, REB, AST, BLK, STL, FG%, FT%, 3PM.

Roster reqs: C, C, PF, F, SF, SG, G, PG, 2U, 3 B.

Hall of Fame QBs

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 01:00 PM 0000

I realize this is a passing era, but it seems there are more potentially great quarterbacks in the league today than at any time I can remember.

Week 3 Observations

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 36:00 AM 0000

The Saints got nothing from Drew Brees and his receivers, yet still won by 20 on the road. Give some credit to Dick Jauron for rarely targeting Terrell Owens or Lee Evans, his two best offensive players.

Name These Two Players

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 18:00 PM 0000

Player A was widely considered a first-round pick in drafts this season, while Player B typically went in the third or fourth round. Both players play in hitter's parks, and both play the same position. Let's look at their stats for 2009:

Week 2 Observations

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 35:00 AM 0000

Sample size caveats still apply, but only half as much as for Week 1.

NFL Betting Strategies

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 53:00 PM 0000

It's well known the betting public prefers favorites to underdogs, and in that case you'd think there would be a slight advantage to picking them - because Vegas would have the incentive to move the spreads ever-so-slightly to favor dogs.

Week 1 Observations

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 30:00 AM 0000

I don't want to read too much into Week 1 as there's so much variance in 60 minutes of football, and teams are still just getting in sync. In fact, you might be better off approaching Week 2 as if Week 1 never happened. That said, there are a few things that struck me.

NFL Thoughts

Fri, 4 Sep 2009 33:00 PM 0000

Former Chiefs offensive coordinator Chan Gailey was apparently just the first domino to fall as the Bucs canned Jeff Jagodzinski and the Bills Turk Schonert soon after. Considering I can't remember seeing *any* offensive coordinator fired this close to the start of the season, it's staggering that there are three, and there's little doubt the Bucs and Bills felt emboldened to do so after the Chiefs set the precedent. In other words, had Kansas City not acted, it's doubtful the other two teams would have pulled the plug independently.

Facebook Expert League

Wed, 2 Sep 2009 44:00 PM 0000

Last night, we had our second annual Facebook experts league run by Jeff Ma of Citizen Sports. It's a basic league (12-teams, 1 QB, 2, RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D). Here are the results: (podcast discussion below).

NFL Training Camp Notes

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:00 AM 0000

Matt Cassel could miss 2-4 weeks with a sprained MCL.. That means Brodie Croyle or Tyler Thigpen could start in Week 1. Considering Cassel's new to the system this year, we wouldn't necessarily downgrade the Chiefs' other skill players, either way.

New York Giants Receivers

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 34:00 PM 0000

Ralph Vacchiano's Blue Screen blog ranks the Giants receivers on the depth chart. It's speculation at this point, but it's the best list I've seen.