Monday, March 10, 2014
The Exception to the Rule: How to Profit in Fantasy Sports
While as a rule pitchers might be less reliable than hitters and should be discounted on that basis, what if there were a certain class of pitchers for whom that was not the case? While everyone was discounting all pitchers
, you might buy the exceptional ones at a significant profit.
If everyone believes pitchers with low BABIPs in a given year will regress to roughly the league average (or at least the average given their teams' parks and defense), and you've noticed Mariano Rivera has a career BABIP well below it, you'll realize projections systems which normalize for BABIP will undervalue him.
Certain players and classes of players are exceptions - for some particular reason or collection of reasons they don't adhere to the general truisms which form the basis of most projections systems.
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Sunday, March 9, 2014
My NFBC RotoWire Online Championship Team
The results from my NFBC draft, where I had a plan, but things went awry early that forced me to adjust on the fly.
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Friday, March 7, 2014
Recent Third Base ADP Trends in the NFBC
When I was growing up and playing baseball, I lived behind the plate. While the guys on the mound and the ones who played the infield got most of the attention, there was nothing I loved more than being the unassuming presence behind the mask. Sure, some of the kids poked fun and said that I was back there because I had the speed of a three-legged turtle, but the coaches always made me feel better when they told me that, in little league, you put your best athletes at shortstop and your smartest behind the plate. I took a lot of solace in that and continued to spend my time emulating the likes of Thurman Munson and Johnny Bench.
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Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Recent Shortstop ADP Trends in the NFBC
If you thought the second base position’s ADP was stagnant, just wait until you look at the shortstops. Not only is the order of players drafted relatively unchanged, but the ADP numbers really aren’t fluctuating too much either. There’s very little movement at the top end of the rankings and while there’s some ADP change near the bottom, the only fantasy owners who will likely be affected are the ones who are in the deepest of AL or NL-only leagues. Even deep mixed league owners won’t have too much change with which to be concerned as the position sits a little deeper than it has been in recent years and few people are forced to fish through the dregs at the bottom of the barrel.
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Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Second Base ADP Trends in the NFBC
In looking at the second base position and its ADP numbers in the NFBC, you might be surprised at the lack of movement we are seeing. That’s not to say that we don’t have plenty of trends to look at for individual players because there are definitely some rising and falling ADP numbers that should be pointed out. However, what I am actually referring to is the order in which the second basemen get drafted. There are a few risers and fallers in the order, In looking at the second base position and its ADP numbers in the NFBC, you might be surprised at the lack of movement we are seeing. That’s not to say that we don’t have plenty of trends to look at for individual players because there are definitely some rising and falling ADP numbers that should be pointed out. However, what I am actually referring to is the order in which the second basemen get drafted. There are a few risers and fallers in the order, but really, not by much.but really, not by much.
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Do Analytics Take the Fun Out of Sports?
Apparently that was the topic of one of the presentations
at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston last week. The presenter, Yale's Edward Tufte, opined:
Don't let people tell you analytics are reductionist and take the joy out of sports. They mostly just take the stupidity out of sports.
Is he right?
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Monday, March 3, 2014
RotoWire's AL LABR Squad
The 2014 AL LABR auction went down at the Arizona Republic offices in downtown Phoenix Saturday night. It's a 12-team, 5 x 5, AL-only league with 2 C, 1 1B, 1 2B. 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 CI, 1 MI, 5 OF, 1 U and 9 pitchers. Everyone has $260 to spend.
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The Problem With Drafting Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton went for $28 in the NL LABR auction this past weekend. I discussed this with a fellow writer who participates in Tout Wars with me later this month and we discussed the problem with investing heavily into Hamilton.
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Friday, February 28, 2014
My 12-Team NFBC RotoWire Online Championship Team
I drafted out of the 11-hole for the "Beat Chris Liss" league. I had done a fair amount of research on optimal roster construction from that slot, and I decided I'd go hitter in the first round, three pitchers in 2-4 and then hitting for the next 10 rounds or so before filling in with upside pitchers late. Of course, few battle plans survive the actual war. Here are the results:
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First Base ADP Trends in the NFBC
The first base position continues to be a premium spot for premium talent and if you want one of the best, you’ve got to dig deep into your pockets because you’ve got to pay, pay pay. The top 13 players at the position go within the first 100 picks and there’s one, Anthony Rizzo, who sits right on the cusp. Thirteen is almost half the starting first basemen out there in the player pool, so while outfielders make up almost 30-percent of the players taken in the first 100 picks, the percentage of first basemen who go, relative to their position, actually has a higher impact.
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The Need For Speed: Should You Draft Billy Hamilton?
Everywhere you look Billy Hamilton is projected not only to lead the majors in stolen bases this season, but to do so by a wide margin, making his an attractive draft day target for fantasy owners.
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Thursday, February 27, 2014
Catcher ADP Trends in the NFBC
With about a month having gone by since we last broke down the NFBC ADP by position, it’s time we checked in again to see what type of movement we’re looking at here at the end of February just before spring training games get ready to begin. We’ll start It off with the catchers once again.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Mock Draft Central ADP Trends -- Risers & Fallers
Over the last several weeks we’ve been primarily looking at the ADP numbers from the NFBC and using them as a benchmark, more or less. But while those numbers have been helpful due to the assumed level of talent and dedication from those drafting in both real and mock NFBC drafts, they aren’t without their limitations. We’ve discussed this before, but just to reiterate for those just joining us, it’s simple.
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Monday, February 24, 2014
Reach For the Stars
We’ve heard it all before. Studying ADP and the trends that are developing each season is an extremely important part of your prep work for your fantasy baseball draft. It helps to guide you along and point you in the right direction so that you don’t reach too high for a player you may be able to get a few rounds later and concentrate on the positions that command your focus early on. Simple, right?
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Thursday, February 20, 2014
Undervalued, But Not For Long
There is a third baseman that is not being taken in the top ten spots, but should be.
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Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Mock Draft Army ADP -- Picks 51 - 100
For those of you just joining us, we’re continuing our comparative look at the ADP created by my Mock Draft Army
versus that of the NFBC. Examining the two side by side offers an interesting comparison as the NFBC data comes from the vast number of drafts, both real and mock, done by those dedicated, both spiritually and monetarily, to the game of fantasy baseball and the data from the Army, though pulled from a much smaller sample size, comes from the combined efforts of those who write about fantasy baseball professionally and those who play for the pure love of the game.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Mock Draft Army ADP -- The Top 50
With pitchers and catchers having reported to camp and various position players checking in early as well, the fantasy baseball draft prep season is kicking into high gear right now. Almost all the fantasy web sites have released their rankings and as you’ve seen here at RotoWire
, those rankings have already been updated at least once, if not more. Everyone is anxiously awaiting the start of spring games and even more anxious for their league’s draft to get here.
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Saturday, February 15, 2014
Early 2014 Predictions
Pitcher and catchers have reported for all but four teams, so now is as good a time as any to predict how the season will end.
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A.J. Burnett's Future
The signing of A.J. Burnett by Philadelphia was one that was met with as many shaking of heads as it was nodding of heads. On the heels of the news that Cole Hamels was experiencing bicep tendonitis, adding Burnett makes sense if the Phillies think they are a playoff contender. The problem is, they certainly do not appear
to be a contender, even within their own division, on paper.
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Thursday, February 13, 2014
Derek VanRiper and I were talking with Joe Sheehan
on the radio Tuesday, and the conversation turned to the Pirates. This was before the Pirates officially blew it
($) with A.J. Burnett, though at that point it was obvious he wasn't a slam-dunk to return to Pittsburgh. But for such a feel-good season in 2013, in such a winnable division, the Pirates were remarkably quiet
this offseason, perhaps even more so than their division rival Reds
, though the Reds' inaction came along with losing Shin-Soo Choo. Arguably the Reds got worse, whereas before losing Burnett the Pirates merely remained stagnant at the major league level.
But luckily for the Pirates, unlike the Reds, there's a fairly easy solution to improve their team for 2014. It won't be cheap, but it fits and is defensible.
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Man Can Live on Fastball Alone
Two starting pitchers threw at least 80% fastballs in 2013 - Tony Cingrani and Bartolo Colon. That is one of the few things these two hurlers have in common.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Expected ADP Risers -- The Trendy Picks
With the number of fantasy web sites we see strewn about the internet, there are very few well-kept secrets in fantasy baseball. In fact, it’s the complete opposite these days. Players who would normally be considered late-round steals and hidden gems are now plastered all over the magazines and web pages so that even the casual fantasy owner knows who they are and how good they could potentially be. Consequently, we are now in an age where we rarely seek to unearth the player no one knows about and build our draft strategy around avoiding the players who everyone knows about. To sum it up, beware the trendy picks.
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My MLB.com Fantasy411 Mock Draft Team
For the better part of the last month, I have been participating in the annual 15 team Sloooooow Mock Draft hosted by the fine folks at MLB.com’s Fantasy411 team. Now that we’re finally done
with the draft, I can reflect on my team as a whole.
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Monday, February 10, 2014
Early NFBC ADP Trends To Watch -- The Top 50
While it’s still a bit early to start looking at trends that may be developing within the ADP numbers, we can still take a look at some of the movement we’ve been seeing recently in the NFBC. The overall movement hasn’t been too significant, but there are definitely a few risers and fallers of whom to take notice as this could be the starting point of greater movement ahead. We’ll go back through each position individually, but let’s hit those first few rounds of your draft and see what’s been happening inside the top 50 picks.
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Saturday, February 8, 2014
Fantasy Baseball Scene in Knocked Up
As preparation should just now be kicking in for your fantasy baseball auction or draft (it really should be an auction), take a moment to enjoy one of the great fantasy sports movie moments...
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Thursday, February 6, 2014
Home Runs and Strikeouts Since 2000Some pertinent league-wide hitting and pitching data since 2000:
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Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Collette Calls Mailbag
If you would like to have your fantasy baseball question responded to in this format, drop Jason a line
. He'll publish his mailbag twice a week.
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Rookie ADP -- Beware the Hype
Ah, the rookies. They’re both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, there’s the hope, the promise, and the trepidation that stems from relying on the unknown. On the other, there’s no proven track record and the potential for failure is actually greater than the chance of success. There’s that tantalizing excitement that comes from being the guy who saw him first and the narcissistic gratification that comes from everyone in the league praising you for unearthing such a gem. But should things not work out, your reliance on them can lead you right to the bottom of your standings.
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Monday, February 3, 2014
Early Closer/Reliever ADP
The debate is both old and tiresome and one that I simply choose to avoid when it comes up. And it comes up each and every year. For those who fail to see the benefits of investing in decent closers rather than spend the year chasing saves that are usually accompanied by mediocre ratios and average strikeout totals, there’s probably little I can do to change your mind. Sure, every year at least one closer loses his job and the team finds a replacement, but is that how you want to walk out of your draft? Knowing that at some point during the year you’re going to have to invest a hefty chunk of your FAAB budget to chase one category? Why not make the smart investment early, especially when starting pitching is so insanely deep?
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Friday, January 31, 2014
Early Starting Pitcher ADP -- It's All About the Depth
Not that there isn’t a ton of information you’re getting from this ADP series, but if there’s only one thing that you take away from the multitude of articles you’ll be reading between now and Opening Day, please let it be that starting pitching is ridiculously deep. Obscenely deep. So deep that you can’t dive to the bottom of the pool and make it back up to the surface for air in time.
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