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Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Killer ABs

I had intended to just blog about Andrew Bogut today, but the news that he is injured and out for a few weeks was a bit of a buzz kill.  So instead, I decided to expand this to shed some light on all three of the young big men in the league sharing the 'AB' initials: Andrew Bynum, Andrea Bargnani, and Andrew Bogut.

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Case Study: Elton Brand

Coming into the year with a preseason ADP of 39.2 (Y! Sports), Elton Brand has been one of this season's biggest disappointments thus far with a per-game rank of 111 through 11 games. His market value is especially relevant at the moment as he is coming off his best performance of the season. Brand owners now find themselves in an interesting quandary, unsure of where to go from here.

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Hitting the NBA Reset Button - Eastern Conference

A little over three weeks into the season and things we knew when the season started are no longer true. Injuries, trades, coaching changes and personnel changes have altered rotations, changed starting lineups and increased some players' value. Who are the players benefitting from early season lineup tweaks in the Eastern Conference?

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Tuesday, November 17, 2009

What's Next for Iverson?

It seems clear Iverson won't pull a Latrell Sprewell and fade away while he still has some productive basketball left in his body. But where will he land? And should fantasy owners have any interest when he does?

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Moving on Up

With their overtime win Monday night, the Hawks are making the jump from the middle class to the NBA's upper crust. Entering the season, all the talk was the improvments made by Boston, Cleveland and Orlando, but little was mentioned of the Hawks, who unglamorously returned the same core for a third straight season. Well, they wake up Tuesday morning leading the conference with a 9-2 record, which includes road victories over Boston and Portland and impressive home wins against the Trail Blazers and the Nuggets. Atlanta now has won five in a row after a bewildering end-of-a-roadtrip loss to Charlotte.

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Sunday, November 15, 2009

Dominant Offense but Shaky Defense...Barkley and Dirk

This topic is a spin-off from the Michael Jordan thread of last week.  In the excellent discussion on that thread a mini-debate broke out as to how Charles Barkley compares to Kevin Garnett.  The gist of the brief debate was to question whether Barkley was enough better than Garnett offensively to make them comparable in value as overall players despite Garnett’s huge defensive advantages.  The thing is, though, to me there is a much better comp for Barkley in this generation than Garnett:  Dirk Nowitzki.

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Friday, November 13, 2009

What is Iverson's Legacy?

What are we talking 'bout? We're talking 'bout *IVERSON*.

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Thursday, November 12, 2009

Jennings vs Rose

Last year Derrick Rose was the NBA Rookie of the Year.  One year later, would you take him over current rookie point guard phenom Brandon Jennings?

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Trend Spotting

An early look at some of the more significant statistical trends that are having major negative effects on players' values.

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Many Happy Returns?

Once upon a time, Tracy McGrady was getting mentions in those "the next Jordan" conversations, and Eddy Curry was being touted as a building block for one of the league's highest-profile franchises.

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Sunday, November 8, 2009

NBA: Was Jordan "The Greatest" Because Injuries/Tragedy Removed His Foils?

What if there were no Larry Bird...would Magic Johnson be universally considered the greatest?

What if Shaq had to suddenly retire in 1999...would Tim Duncan be the GOAT?

I was watching the Len Bias 30 for 30 special the other day, and I was struck by how many people of that day thought that Bias was the natural competitor to Michael Jordan.  It made me think about a thread I saw on a message board one time, where someone brought up Bias' death and Ralph Sampson's injuries as a reason why Jordan was considered by so many to be the greatest.  When you add Magic, Bird, and even Sam Bowie into the equation...perhaps there is some merit to the argument that Jordan wasn't necessarily the greatest, he just lacked his natural competitors.

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Friday, November 6, 2009

Why Fantasy Football is Better Than Fantasy Basketball

It just is.

Read all of Why Fantasy Football is Better Than Fantasy Basketball

Thursday, November 5, 2009

What is Gilbert Arenas' trade value?

It is always difficult to value a superstar player who has been hit by injuries, and Gilbert Arenas is no exception.  In 2006 Arenas was a potential top-5 pick in fantasy drafts, but after missing 147 games to injury over the last two seasons he slid in most drafts this season.  Now, five games in, how do you value him?

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Quick Starters: Buy or Sell?

The first few weeks of the fantasy hoops season are a real mixed bag. It counts, but at the same time it really doesn't. As us fantasy hoops enthusiasts scour box scores trying to pick games apart and get an early read on players, we must also keep in mind that we are dealing with sample sizes of five games or less here. While early signs of life from players like Marc Gasol and Danilo Gallinari are certainly encouraging, their current averages and ranks will almost surely be significantly off from what they will be at the end of the season. The real question is how far off will they be?

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Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Knick Rotation Taking Shape?

Mike D'Antoni's system is so fantasy-friendly, any changes in the Knicks' rotation are worth watching. Based on last night's game against the Hornets, it seems New York may be settling on a rotation.

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Monday, November 2, 2009

Bad Start

The Hornets are 1-3 out of the gate after losing to the Knicks Monday night, their lone win a fourth-quarter come-from-behind affair at home over Sacramento. The Pistons are 1-2 after falling to the Bucks on Saturday. Two playoff teams from 2009 threatening the lottery in 2010. We've seen Detroit's decline coming for a few years now, but the Hornets are a stealth job.

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Saturday, October 31, 2009

Pay Attention to Opposing Defenses? Or just the Celtics

In my last Hoops Lab I suggested paying attention to the opposing defenses when setting your starting line-ups.  Specifically, I suggested keeping an eye on the Celtics, Cavs and Spurs.  Five days into the season, how is that philosophy panning out?

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Friday, October 30, 2009

Why Fantasy Basketball is Better Than Fantasy Football

It's just more fun.

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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Late Round Foreign Invasion?

In the late rounds of one of my biggest drafts I noticed that my queue was filled with foreign players that we have been waiting on for the last few years: Yi Jianlian, Nenad Krstic and Danilo Gallinari.  One game into the season, is it too early to say that they have arrived?

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Buy Low on the Sixers

All of the blowouts on Wednesday night made it hard to discern how well players will fare in fantasy this year.  However, one team showed their true colors, and it wasn't pretty.

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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Opening Thoughts

The NBA season is finally upon us, so let's move past all the preseason speculation and delve into Tuesday's freshly baked batch of games. Even though opening night called for a short order of four games, there was plenty of action and a fair share of fantasy-relevant observations to take away.

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My First Hoops Draft in Three Years

I've taken a bit of a sabbatical from NBA fantasy leagues, having not played the last three seasons. It's a combination of a lack of bandwidth - I'm in so many baseball, football, hockey and college football leagues, I just don't have the time to properly play - and a lack of passion for the NBA.

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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Opening Night

Really nice win for Washington and new head coach Flip Saunders Tuesday night, going into Dallas and leaving with a 102-91 win over the Mavericks. The Wizards flew under my radar during training camp and preseason, but they looked ready to make the Southeast Division one of the best in the league in 2009-10.

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Can I get a Mulligan?

On yesterday's RotoWire Fantasy Sports Hour radio show, I predicted Blake Griffin would be rookie of the year.

Oops.

Read all of Can I get a Mulligan?

Monday, October 26, 2009

Replacements

Now we're stuck with the 60 individuals who are best at officiating NBA games. I guess I feel better about the resolution of the NBA's lockout of its referees, but frankly, on some level, they aren't much better than replacement level. Okay, maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but I think we can all think of head-scratching calls, some of them game-deciding, over the years.

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Saturday, October 24, 2009

Rookie rankings revisited

Two months ago I gave my opinion on this year's rookie class as fantasy prospects.  Here is a quick update on how I see it now.

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Thursday, October 22, 2009

Where to Rank Michael Beasley?

Michael Beasley had a bit of a disappointing rookie year, but if he continues his trends with respect to Kevin Durant he could be in for a break-out year.

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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Krypto-Nate vs. Lou Williams

A friend recently presented me with a keeper league question: who to save... Lou Williams or Nate Robinson?

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Sunday, October 18, 2009

Looking for sleepers using advanced stats

I have spent a lot of time on advanced stats over the last couple of years, and I am convinced that they can really help determine how good a player is in real life.  But can these stats help identify fantasy sleepers?  Let's take a look at one article based on the Wins Produced stat and think about it.

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Friday, October 16, 2009

A Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing

Don't forget the boring guys on draft day.

Read all of A Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing

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NFL Notes
A look around the league regarding Week 10:
Week 10 Observations
  • We've beaten to death Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th and 2 in Sunday night's game (the best take on it I've seen is here), but the real takeaway is how much Cris Collinsworth, Al Michaels, Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison felt it was their duty to spout the conventional wisdom without even attempting to analyze Belichick's basis for the decision. Throw in Bob Costas, and it's appalling that five guys collectively making more than $10 million a year to interpret the sport for us didn't even consider the issue from a probability standpoint. Sadly, the NBC crew is probably the best one on TV. (Update: Jon Gruden just defended Belichick's call on MNF - good for him).
    • Dominant Offense but Shaky Defense...Barkley and Dirk
    This topic is a spin-off from the Michael Jordan thread of last week.  In the excellent discussion on that thread a mini-debate broke out as to how Charles Barkley compares to Kevin Garnett.  The gist of the brief debate was to question whether Barkley was enough better than Garnett offensively to make them comparable in value as overall players despite Garnett’s huge defensive advantages.  The thing is, though, to me there is a much better comp for Barkley in this generation than Garnett:  Dirk Nowitzki.
    What is Iverson's Legacy?
    What are we talking 'bout? We're talking 'bout *IVERSON*.
    Jennings vs Rose
    Last year Derrick Rose was the NBA Rookie of the Year.  One year later, would you take him over current rookie point guard phenom Brandon Jennings?

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