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Friday, January 27, 2012

Re-setting Expectations for the Knicks

The Knicks might have the most imposing three-man frontcourt in basketball. And their coach has led some of the most impressive offensive teams of the last decade-plus, including Steve Nash's Suns and Team USA.

So why is New York struggling to crack the 85-point barrier most nights?

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Early ADP Trends For AL and NL-Only Leagues

The amount of data in for us to work with right now is fairly limited, but it’s probably a good idea to start the process of looking at some of the ADP trends in the single leagues as well.  We should see a major increase in draft reporting over the next few weeks, obviously as we near spring training, but also because the majority of free agents have signed on and AL and NL-only leagues have a much better idea of what their player pools will look like here in 2012.

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Thursday, January 26, 2012

Greatest Players in NBA History: Tim Duncan

In this section of the Lab I pick one of the top players in NBA history as voted on in this project and discuss some of his career accomplishments…in other words, what made him so great that he deserves a spot among the greatest?  This week’s player is Tim Duncan, who is on the short list of best players ever despite the fact that he doesn’t get nearly as much mention as he should.  Duncan’s case, as you might expect, is based on very simple, fundamental reasoning.

Read all of Greatest Players in NBA History: Tim Duncan

Keeper League Decisions - RotoWire Staff League

With the signing of Prince Fielder, the vast majority of free agents are locked up, so most of us can start devoting time to finalizing our keeper decisions, or in some cases, intensifying trade talks in advance of our keeper deadline. Many of you are probably well ahead in this process, especially if you don't play fantasy football.

I play in a handful of keeper leagues of various formats. I'll be writing a series of articles discussing my decisions for the 2012 season and beyond, and we'll start with the RotoWire Staff Keeper League.

Read all of Keeper League Decisions - RotoWire Staff League

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Moneyball: Using Modern Portfolio Theory To Win Your Fantasy Sports League

Working for a finance company, it's hard not to notice the parallels that fantasy sports present to investing. When we talk about making moves to acquire players who are due to break out or squeezing out a hefty premium for an overachieving player, we're really just participating in a virtual market, trading players just as we'd trade stocks. That being the case, we can apply many of the same techniques used by sophisticated investors to squeeze out a few basis points that could mean the difference between winning and losing. Let's take a look at how we can use Modern Portfolio Theory to make the most strategic investments in our team to give us the best chance possible for success.

Read all of Moneyball: Using Modern Portfolio Theory To Win Your Fantasy Sports League

Prince and Other Matters

I'm not ready to declare Detroit the 2012 World Series Champions.

Read all of Prince and Other Matters

Top 12 ADP Risers and Fallers for Mixed Leagues

When we looked at the ADP trends developing in the top 20 a couple of days ago, it was with the hope of seeing how your first two rounds are most likely going to pan out.  After all, your first few picks are the foundation for your team and the rest of your draft direction hinges on which players you have chosen.  Today it’s time to take a few steps further in and look at some of the biggest risers and fallers in drafts thus far.  Hopefully, with this information you will have an easier time adjusting your in-draft strategy as that tends to change the further along you go into your draft.

Read all of Top 12 ADP Risers and Fallers for Mixed Leagues

All-Star Game or Black Hole?

This subject will likely be shot down by most, but regardless, I don?t believe the All-Star Game is relevant enough to perpetuate its existence. I have no memory of an NHL All-Star Game since 1997 when Owen Nolan called his shot on a breakaway against Dominik Hasek?to make the game 11-7. The excitement of the game can be captured by reading the box score as you check to see who won the MVP and if your favorite players chipped in.

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Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Quick Reactions To the Prince Fielder Deal

The moral of the story, of course, is to never, ever, ever, ever, *ever* underestimate Scott Boras. Did anyone really believe that he'd get Prince Fielder nine years and $214M?

There's plenty of data out there that players hit worse as a DH than as a position player. It's not uniform, obviously, but the Frank Thomas effect (dating back to my first memory of an elite hitter having big DH/1B split) could hold sway here with Miguel Cabrera. Scott Pianowski has already researched Miggy's numbers as a DH - and I agree with his conclusion. The Tigers are best off trying him out at 3B rather than stashing him at DH.

more after the jump ...

Read all of Quick Reactions To the Prince Fielder Deal

Monday, January 23, 2012

Championship Game Observations

The Patriots won on a missed chip-shot field goal, while the Giants won due to fumbles on special teams. It's hard to argue that either team was much better than its opponent Sunday, but at least the Giants had the excuse of being on the road.

Read all of Championship Game Observations

Early ADP Risers and Fallers

Utilizing Average Draft Position (ADP) can be one of the most helpful tools as you prepare for your upcoming fantasy draft. Not only does it help you see where most people in the fantasy community are taking certain players, but you can also see certain trends developing, such as which players becoming more popular and which ones are falling out of favor. That affords you the opportunity to see whether or not you can wait on someone for a few rounds or whether you have to act faster than you normally would if you covet a particular guy.

Read all of Early ADP Risers and Fallers

Sunday, January 22, 2012

NFL - Conference Championship Live Blog

I'm in the Sirius/XM hosts playoff league, and had some tough decisions on who to use this week. Keep in mind that it's a "one-and-done" league - you can only use a player once. So it's not just a question of trying to find the guy that can produce the most, it's also about making sure you have enough players to use in subsequent rounds. After the jump is my lineup, with the decisions I had to make:

Read all of NFL - Conference Championship Live Blog

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Lets Make A Deal Edition

Some big names have come off the board. What about the Prince?

Read all of Lets Make A Deal Edition

Payne's Picks

A little delayed since I had other business to attend to earlier today. And by business, I mean "Disney on Ice."

Read all of Payne's Picks

Friday, January 20, 2012

Injuries and Expatriates: When to claim Z-Bo, Manu, Wilson Chandler and Aaron Brooks

Wh

Read all of Injuries and Expatriates: When to claim Z-Bo, Manu, Wilson Chandler and Aaron Brooks

Thursday, January 19, 2012

How Much Should You Pay For Yu Darvish?

No puns for me today, Thank You.

Read all of How Much Should You Pay For Yu Darvish?

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Then There Were Four: Conference Championship Prediction

22-13-1 against the spread and we're back for more analytically driven playoff predictions.

Read all of Then There Were Four: Conference Championship Prediction

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Greatest Players in NBA History: Earvin

In this weekly blog I'm going to pick one of the top players in NBA history as voted on in this project and discuss some of his career accomplishments…in other words, what made him so great that he deserves a spot among the greatest?  This week's player combined the skills of a point guard with the body of a power forward, a combination so ridiculous that it had to be Magic...

Read all of Greatest Players in NBA History: Earvin

Division Round Observations

How often does a team beat the 15-1 squad by 17 in their building?

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Monday, January 16, 2012

NFL Notes


A look at the Divisional Round:

Read all of NFL Notes

Saturday, January 14, 2012

NFL - Divisional Week Live Blog

Sorry for the late start. Multi-tasking with a college hoops game.

Tough start for the Saints, with what looks like two concussions. Definitely one for Pierre Thomas.

Read all of NFL - Divisional Week Live Blog

Payne's Picks

A look at the weekend:

Read all of Payne's Picks

Friday, January 13, 2012

Does Emilio Bonifacio belong in the Top 200?

When we had RotoWire's Bernie Pleskoff on Wednesday's radio show, we discussed the relative merits of Emilio Bonifacio.

I had given him an advance copy of the RotoWire 200, which will appear in the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide 2012 (coming to a newsstand near you in about 2.5 weeks), to get his feedback. He suggested that Bonifacio was my most notable omission.

Read all of Does Emilio Bonifacio belong in the Top 200?

NBA Notes: Horford and Kwame and Shumpert and More

The toughest part of fantasy basketball is dealing with injuries; there's simply no way to adequately replace a first or second-rounder that gets hurt.

Read all of NBA Notes: Horford and Kwame and Shumpert and More

Thursday, January 12, 2012

NHL Power Rankings


Most clubs have reached the season's midway point. The elite teams are beginning to distance themselves from the pack while the bottom feeders are falling hopelessly out of the race. Ottawa makes the biggest jump while the Wild find the going tough.

Read all of NHL Power Rankings

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

NBA: The Watch List

Kyle McKeown breaks down the guys he's currently targeting in trades and the players he has on his watch lists.

Read all of NBA: The Watch List

Greatest Players in NBA History: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

In this weekly blog I'm going to pick one of the top players in NBA history as voted on in this project and discuss some of his career accomplishments…in other words, what made him so great that he deserves a spot among the greatest?  This week’s player is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, another on the short list of players with an argument for Greatest of All Time status.

Read all of Greatest Players in NBA History: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Defensive Showdown In Baltimore: Divisional Round Prediction

21-13-1 against the spread and we're back for more analytically driven playoff predictions.

Read all of Defensive Showdown In Baltimore: Divisional Round Prediction

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Wild Card Observations

When Tim Tebow (15 YPA, no turnovers) torched the league's best passing defense, this after being destroyed by the Bills and Chiefs in back to back weeks with a playoff berth seemingly on the line, I thought to myself: "This is why you watch football." The advanced formulas and the presumed probabilities are great for telling us what will happen often, but they can never span the entire gulf between the known and the possible. Tebow all year has operated in that gulf, and no one at this point can convince me they have him pegged. I'm just bummed I didn't get "stuck" with him as the last QB in any of my playoff drafts.

Read all of Wild Card Observations

Monday, January 9, 2012

NFL Notes


A look at the Wild Card round:

Read all of NFL Notes

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Greatest Players in NBA History: Tim Duncan
In this section of the Lab I pick one of the top players in NBA history as voted on in this project and discuss some of his career accomplishments…in other words, what made him so great that he deserves a spot among the greatest?  This week’s player is Tim Duncan, who is on the short list of best players ever despite the fact that he doesn’t get nearly as much mention as he should.  Duncan’s case, as you might expect, is based on very simple, fundamental reasoning.
Keeper League Decisions - RotoWire Staff League
With the signing of Prince Fielder, the vast majority of free agents are locked up, so most of us can start devoting time to finalizing our keeper decisions, or in some cases, intensifying trade talks in advance of our keeper deadline. Many of you are probably well ahead in this process, especially if you don't play fantasy football.

I play in a handful of keeper leagues of various formats. I'll be writing a series of articles discussing my decisions for the 2012 season and beyond, and we'll start with the RotoWire Staff Keeper League.
Moneyball: Using Modern Portfolio Theory To Win Your Fantasy Sports League
Working for a finance company, it's hard not to notice the parallels that fantasy sports present to investing. When we talk about making moves to acquire players who are due to break out or squeezing out a hefty premium for an overachieving player, we're really just participating in a virtual market, trading players just as we'd trade stocks. That being the case, we can apply many of the same techniques used by sophisticated investors to squeeze out a few basis points that could mean the difference between winning and losing. Let's take a look at how we can use Modern Portfolio Theory to make the most strategic investments in our team to give us the best chance possible for success.
Prince and Other Matters
I'm not ready to declare Detroit the 2012 World Series Champions.
Top 12 ADP Risers and Fallers for Mixed Leagues
When we looked at the ADP trends developing in the top 20 a couple of days ago, it was with the hope of seeing how your first two rounds are most likely going to pan out.  After all, your first few picks are the foundation for your team and the rest of your draft direction hinges on which players you have chosen.  Today it’s time to take a few steps further in and look at some of the biggest risers and fallers in drafts thus far.  Hopefully, with this information you will have an easier time adjusting your in-draft strategy as that tends to change the further along you go into your draft.

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