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Why Kevin Gregg is Likely to Be the Cubs Closer

I posted earlier about Carlos Marmol being a poor value where he's being drafted, but I said that he was still the slight favorite to win the job. I no longer believe that. Not only did Marmol hit two batters Saturday, but Gregg has been nearly perfect this spring, allowing no runs and two hits in five innings, while striking out five.

Moreover, Lou Piniella said he'd make his decision by next weekend. If Gregg hadn't already all but locked up the job barring a terrible week, we'd expect Piniella to wait longer for Marmol to log some spring training innings with the club and hone his command. In other words, Marmol's the guy he needs to see bounce back and show consistency, which takes time. But Gregg looks ready right now. The shorter timetable for the decision (which really doesn't have to made until three weeks from now) favors Gregg.

I'd even argue that if Marmol is lights out this week, it might just solidify his value in a setup capacity. The only way I see Gregg losing the job is if he has a horrible week. It's possible, of course, but Gregg's feeling healthy after successful offseason knee surgery and throwing the ball well.

Finally, having the job matters more to Gregg: "I want it," he said Saturday. "I want to close. I have no qualms about saying that." On which Piniella commented: "I don't blame him. He threw the ball well. He's had success in that role. We're not going to make that decision for a little while yet."

Marmol, on the other hand, seems almost resigned to setup duty:

Said Marmol: "I don't care. I'm glad to be on the team, and be on a good team. It's not my decision, it's their decision. I pitch wherever they put me. I want to be a closer, but if they put me in the situation where I have to pitch the eighth, I'll go out there. I want to help the team."

Barring a huge change in performance this week, I expect Gregg to get the job.

Comments

By: billgoofnow
On: 3/14/2009 8:07:00 PM		 I completely agree... when I watched Marmol blow the WBC game that pretty much clinched it for me. This was not the bounce back outing he was looking for...
 
By: airjan23
On: 3/14/2009 8:18:00 PM		 Chris, wish I knew you felt that way before I didn't retain Gregg in Staff I.
 
By: ephinz
On: 3/15/2009 7:32:00 AM		 This is the kind of decision making that drives numbers guys mad, but how would you run your business if one person said I want the job and another said I don't care about the job? You'd give the job to the person who said he wanted it.
 
By: Telly405
On: 3/15/2009 12:58:00 PM		 Gregg will start the season as the closer but, it won't last to long... He'll lose the job.
 
By: wds225
On: 3/15/2009 1:42:00 PM		 Thanks for the good advice Chris. In a keeper league, I drafted Fuentes and then Devine in the 4th and 5th rounds (+ the 14 keepers, so like the 18th and 19th rounds). Since then however, Devine has developed soreness and may miss time to start the year. I hate to lose my investment in Devine, so I am going to hang on to him, and go pick up Gregg off the WW. If Gregg starts the season as the closer for the Cubs, that would be great insurance (or maybe an even better option) for Devine. Particularly if Gregg continues to pitch well, holds onto the job, and thus emerges as a closer on a team forcast to win a lot of games. Low risk, high reward.
 
By: schoenke
On: 3/15/2009 4:08:00 PM		 This is actually good news if you're a Cubs fan. I'd rather have the better pitcher used in high-leverage situations .. and give the lesser pitcher the easy 3-run lead ninth inning.
 

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