ROTOWIRE.COM NFL MLB / Minors NBA NHL GOLF RACING    COMMUNITY FORUMS PODCASTS MYROTOWIRE ASK AN EXPERT GAMES

Why I'm Backing the Colts


Immediately after the Championship games, I was convinced I was backing Indy in the Super Bowl. Of course, it’s never smart to overly rely on the last game played, and considering the Saints are a No. 1 seed that had the far better point differential throughout the season, I assumed the spread would be around three points and certainly not approaching seven like it has been. Plenty of Colts games this season were close, and five-six points is quite a bit to be laying against a team that has a legitimate argument as the best in the NFL, especially on a neutral field. This is essentially saying Indy would be favored by nine points if they were at home, which is pretty crazy. Moreover, the Colts beat the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds at home to get into the Super Bowl, while New Orleans annihilated a good Cardinals squad before beating a Vikings team that could also easily be viewed as the best in football, even if the Saints were lucky in doing so. Dwight Freeney’s injury is obviously a big concern (although conversely, the lack of a pure pass rusher may actually hurt the Saints’ screen game, an area in which they excel), and there’s a 30 percent chance of precipitation, which would probably help the underdogs. Another injury that seems to be underrated is the one to talented young DB Jerraud Powers, who is questionable with a foot problem that kept him out of the AFC Championship game. Secondary depth will sure mean a whole lot more against the Saints than it did versus the Ravens and Jets.

Delving into the Xs and Os, it’s fairly simple; both teams have mediocre run defenses, underrated secondaries and strong passing attacks, although the Saints’ ground game is noticeably better. And then there’s Peyton Manning, who is probably the best football player ever. Drew Brees had a terrific season with gaudy stats, but so did Philip Rivers. And Tony Romo. Manning is simply in a class by himself and is currently the most important player in sports. When Brees played outdoors this year, his numbers took a precipitous drop (7.7 YPA, 9:5 TD:INT ratio compared to 9.0 YPA, 25:6 TD:INT indoors), whereas Manning’s YPA actually increased from 7.5 indoors to 8.2 outdoors; it might not mean much, but it’s something to think about. While Manning was picked off 16 times this season (the most since 2002), and New Orleans’ 26 interceptions were the third-most in the NFL in 2009, with two weeks to prepare and on the biggest stage possible, I just don’t see this remaining a team strength for the Saints. Moreover, New Orleans loves to blitz, which is suicide against Manning, and the vaunted Saints’ passing game faces an Indy secondary that allowed just 6.2 YPA this season – the third-lowest in the league. Put simply, the matchup doesn’t exactly favor New Orleans.

Right now it’s clear the public is all over the Colts, and the sharps are supposedly backing the Saints, but in my opinion, this means far less in the playoffs, especially the Super Bowl (Vegas takes advantage of these situations over big samples, plus they could easily lose ATS yet kill on the O/U, which appears to have a bunch of action on the “sucker side” – the over). My early Indy convictions have definitely been tested over the past 10 days, and this is a game I’d recommend staying away from if not for it being the Super Bowl (of course you have to bet!). Five-six points is quite a lot in a seemingly even matchup, and even a straight MLB on New Orleans makes sense, but I’m backing the Colts to cover Sunday, and it’s pretty much because of one single player.

Comments

By: million_dollar_sleeper
On: 2/4/2010 9:38:00 AM
the vikes exposed the saints, this game is already over. colts won
 
By: iceguy
On: 2/4/2010 1:43:00 PM
I like the Colts on the moneyline. I think New Orleans would have to be up 14+ at the start of the 4th quarter for the Colts not to win.

I like the under, too. The Saints' running game is under-rated (6th in the reg season). I also expect the Saints to over-cover (2- and 3- man rushes). Once Peyton figures it out, I suspect he'll be audibling to runs and getting 5-7 yds. Colts win, 24-17.
 
By: common09
On: 6/1/2011 5:56:00 AM
Iím sure people would do much more than just read, they act. Great stuff here. Please keep it up..quality boots zipper
 

Leave a comment

Commenting is restricted to registered users only. Please register or login now to submit a comment.

Tell Someone

  • Digg it
  • submit to reddit reddit
  • Add to Mixx!

Recent Favorites

Do Analytics Take the Fun Out of Sports?
Apparently that was the topic of one of the presentations at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston last week. The presenter, Yale's Edward Tufte, opined:

Don't let people tell you analytics are reductionist and take the joy out of sports. They mostly just take the stupidity out of sports.

Is he right?

RotoWire's AL LABR Squad
The 2014 AL LABR auction went down at the Arizona Republic offices in downtown Phoenix Saturday night. It's a 12-team, 5 x 5, AL-only league with 2 C, 1 1B, 1 2B. 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 CI, 1 MI, 5 OF, 1 U and 9 pitchers. Everyone has $260 to spend.
The Problem With Drafting Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton went for $28 in the NL LABR auction this past weekend. I discussed this with a fellow writer who participates in Tout Wars with me later this month and we discussed the problem with investing heavily into Hamilton.
Payne's Daily Fantasy Basketball Experiment
Let's see if I can make any money doing daily fantasy hoops.
My 12-Team NFBC RotoWire Online Championship Team
I drafted out of the 11-hole for the "Beat Chris Liss" league. I had done a fair amount of research on optimal roster construction from that slot, and I decided I'd go hitter in the first round, three pitchers in 2-4 and then hitting for the next 10 rounds or so before filling in with upside pitchers late. Of course, few battle plans survive the actual war. Here are the results:

RSS Feeds