What is Kevin Garnett's Value?

• By: The Professor
• On: 11/30/2009 3:01:00 PM

Related: The Professor Boston Celtics NBA 



• View Comments : 3

I wrote recently about how difficult it is to get a handle on Dwight Howard's value because he has several potentially dominant categories but also a couple of terrible ones as well.  Kevin Garnett is the opposite end of the coin in that he contributes solidly but unspectacularly in most categories, but he also doesn't hurt you in any category either.  That makes Garnett just as difficult to put a rotisserie ranking on.

Garnett's ADP in Yahoo! leagues this year was 13.2 (essentially the same as Howard's 11.3 ADP), as on average he was picked in the back of the first or early in the second round of drafts.  It was especially difficult for me to project Garnett's value this offseason because of the mysterious knee injury that ended his last season early, as there was no definite prognosis on how his summer surgery would affect him this year.  Age also had to be a factor, as KG is 33 years old now with lots of NBA mileage on the odometer so there was a chance he would slow down anyway.  But the surgery was described by the Celtics as minor, and it was revealed that the bone spurs that he got removed had plagued him for at least a season, so in the end most projections that I saw predicted Garnett's numbers to look much like they did in his first 1.5 years in Boston.

Through the first month, though, that wasn't the case.  Garnett averaged only 13.2 ppg on 82/171 (47.9%) shooting from the field with 7.6 boards, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks per game.  He only shot 27 free throws total through his first 14 games, making 21 of them.  His numbers have been down literally across the board from last season despite playing roughly the same minutes.

Over the last three games, though, Garnett has shown some signs of turning it around a bit on offense.  He re-found his up-and-down scoring stroke, making 22 of 27 from the field and 11 of 14 from the line while averaging 18.3 ppg, and he's also kicked in 3.0 assists per in that stretch.  His defensive numbers are still way down, but if we assume that rebounds/blocks/steals are the stats most closely tied to athleticism and energy while shooting/scoring/assists are most tied to repetition and timing this would make sense.  Garnett could be slowly recovering a bit of the latter as he's knocked the dust from his game after his long layoff, and he might still recover the former as his knee strengthens and he gets back into full playing shape.

Despite his early season struggles, though, Garnett is still ranked 48th overall by average in the Yahoo! player rater.  That isn't as good as his ADP, but it isn't terrible and is far better than the
125 ranking that Dwight Howard has in the same system.  While he lacks any big categories, he also doesn't take anything off the table.  He is currently shooting 52.5% from the field, 78% from the line, and averaging only 1.5 TOs/game.  As such, he has become a quintessential roto Garbageman and those always rank well in Yahoo's system.  Do you agree with their valuation, suggesting that Garnett's somewhat meh across the board averages without a weak spot are more valuable to a rotisserie team than Howard's boom or bust?  Honestly, even as a Garnett fan I would have to do a lot of soul searching before I'd trade Howard for him straight up in most of my leagues...but that is more gut instinct right now than number crunching, and according to Yahoo at least by the numbers I should make that trade 10-times-out-of-10 without hesitation.

If you think Garnett's Yahoo! rating is too high and that he is essentially a fantasy role player, what would he have to do to regain his impact status?  Would a 17-point/3-assist statline on 55%/80% be enough to sway you?  Or, what if his shooting/scoring stayed constant but he got back up to 9 boards and almost 3 combined steals/blocks per game...would that be enough?  Does he have to combine those two improvements?  Combine them and improve even more?

In other words, what would Kevin Garnett have to average over the next four months for him to be worthy of being the best player on YOUR rotisserie team?