Week 5 Observations
- By: Chris Liss
- On: 10/7/2012 10:19:00 PM
- View Comments : 21
Related: Chris Liss
I know it was a home game against the Bills, but Alex Smith is a good quarterback. Good decisions, accurate throws and an underrated scrambler. His fantasy upside is probably limited by his defense, but he's more than a caretaker at this point.
Michael Crabtree is a top-25 WR, while Frank Gore is as washed up as Michael Turner which is not washed up at all.
The Giants got down 14-0, but this offense is almost never out of it. It's strange saying that about what's traditionally a defensive-oriented franchise, but if and when they get Hakeem Nicks back and David Wilson more involved, it'll be one of the top two or three units in the NFL. It's probably top-five right now.
The Falcons won yet another close game against a mediocre opponent, thanks in large part to RGIII missing nearly half the game. Matty Ice gets his 350 and 2, but with 6.6. YPA, a pick six and life or death against another mediocre team in the fourth quarter, albeit on the road this time. Even though they're 5-0, I still wouldn't have them in my top-7 teams to win the SB.
Incidentally, how many teams would you need to give someone the field in picking the SB winner? I think I'd take five (49ers, Texans, Patriots, Giants and Ravens). But if you want to take four, I'd take the field.
The Jaguars and Titans have distinguished themselves as league doormats of late. Not merely losing, but losing huge, with no hope whatsoever. Maurice Jones-Drew had a bad game, but can be counted on to produce even in the ugliest of offenses. Chris Johnson, despite the anomaly against the Texans, is on the ropes. I suppose one should trade for him, but what could you offer? Antonio Gates? As terrible as Johnson's been, that probably doesn't get it done.
The Packers offense just isn't the same, and it's hard to pinpoint what's missing. James Starks wasn't important last year, and while Greg Jennings is a good player, he never seemed like a unique game breaker. The Giants have been fine without Hakeem Nicks, for example, so it's hard to believe a QB of Rodgers' caliber is missing Jennings that much. Is it the offensive line play? The line wasn't great last year, either. Someone who knows the Packers better than I do should weigh in. It's odd watching them unable to pull away against the Colts.
I was watching that game at the bar, so correct me if I'm missing something, but why didn't Mike McCarthy uses his timeouts on defense when it became clear that the clock wasn't a factor for the Colts? The idea being in case the Colts scored, which they did, you preserve time for Aaron Rodgers to try an easier FG or even get the game-winning TD. I foolishly laid the points with the Pack, so I really didn't care, but it was surprising.
Andrew Luck has got to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback, right? What are the odds Luck outproduces Aaron Rodgers the rest of the way? 40-45 percent? How about Tom Brady? At this point, is Luck ahead of Matt Stafford and Cam Newton? At least Reggie Wayne has a decent quarterback getting him the ball for once.
I had PIT -3 in the Eagles-Steelers, and once the Steelers, down one, got the ball inside the 20 with a minute and change left, why didn't the Eagles let them score? It would have given Philly a minute to get a TD rather than hoping Shaun Suisham missed a chip shot. It also would have given me an excellent chance to cover.
Of course Shane Vereen got the Pats' first rushing touchdown, even though Stevan Ridley had another great game. I actually sat Chris Johnson (my first round pick) in a league where I had Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Ridley. I had a moment of panic at the bar when I couldn't remember whether I had started Johnson or Bradshaw, and that I am writing this blog and not defenestrated in a heap of broken glass is proof of it.
I backed the Chiefs plus five, and while they came through, I have to say Matt Cassel is truly an abominable player for whom to root. Of course he fumbled at the goal line. Thankfully, the Chiefs know how to play for the cover, and the Ravens know how to kill the clock. Incidentally, Jamaal Charles is getting a massive workload this year, despite coming back from ACL surgery. If you take out the game he left hurt, he's at 24 per game. That's a pace for 384.
You know you've hit rock bottom when you're 3-9 ATS heading into Sunday night and rooting for the Chargers to bail you out on the road in a two-minute drill. I realize the refs made some questionable calls on that drive, but either way, the chances of San Diego showing heart after surrendering that lead were between zero and infinitesimal. And in the event they did score, they surely would have blown the cover in overtime.
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Comments
On: 10/8/2012 5:20:00 AM
Herb, what say you?
On: 10/8/2012 5:23:00 AM
On: 10/8/2012 8:39:00 AM
I go back and forth on Alex Smith. I'm starting to wonder if he's one of those "hitter's count" quarterbacks who looks great when the support is around him, but can't be counted on when you trail 17-3 and you need to turn the offense completely over to him.
On: 10/8/2012 9:25:00 AM
I have also noticed sometimes Rodgers appears to act like the game is too easy or that his opponent is weak and he starts playing lax, The Packers and especially Rodgers never, ever seem to go for the kill or annihilate their opponent. The Packers were up big on the Colts and acted like a 21-3 lead at halftime was insurmountable, it was not.
The fact that Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense was stifled by that ever so daunting Colts defense is baffling to me, they had nothing in the second half, no clue how to solve that ever so stingy Colts defense.
On: 10/8/2012 9:46:00 AM
On: 10/8/2012 9:58:00 AM
Stevan Ridley looks like a revelation. So fun to watch. Bolden might be slightly faster in a straight line but he can't touch Ridley in terms of lateral agility and quicks.
Agree that Pianow that it's the system and the score that prop up Alex Smith. Much easier to QB when your team is always up and your offensive line is amazing. You put Smith in, say, Jacksonville and the Jags are still the Jags.
Richardson is a hell of a player already. While watching him I'm always surprised because I don't expect a player of that size to be so quick. And I don't expect a player with that quickness to be so powerful. If anybody in your league is less than sold on him as a top-5 or top-6 RB going forward, either due to the anemic Browns' offense or his rookie status, pay whatever you have to in order to get him.
On: 10/8/2012 10:25:00 AM
On: 10/8/2012 12:06:00 PM
As has been mentioned, downfield passing has been the biggest difference. The Packers have completed just one pass of 40+ yards all season. They had 14 of those last season and 10 in 2010. They have only nine passes of 20+ yards after having 62 in 2011. Rodgers has the highest completion percentage of his career, but everything is on short passes. Now, he did miss Jordy Nelson twice in Sunday's game, one of which may have gone for a TD. I don't think he's been as accurate on long passes this season.
The whole thing that the opposing defenses have figured it out by playing cover 2 with man underneath is garbage as well. This is taken from an early 2010 chat transcript with a Green Bay beat writer:
http://www.jsonline.com/packerinsider/105071954.html
"..what McCarthy eluded to in his post-game press conference: that teams have decided the best way to defense the Packers is to play Cover-2 with man coverage underneath. And to beat man coverage, you need a little time to let plays develop. I was surprised that we didn't see more quick stuff...and on more than a few occasions, Rodgers was running into pressure, not away from it. The whole offense is out of sorts right now..."
Opposing teams have known that this is the best way to defense the Packers for years. If it's working now then it has more to do with execution, both by the opponents and the Packers, than by some scheme that Green Bay suddenly can't figure out.
The offensive line hasn't been great and I think Jeff Saturday has been the worst by far. He is just plain terrible. I don't know what they can do about it, but I don't know how he'll get any better as the season goes on. The step down from Scott Wells has been big.
Finally, the turnovers that they were getting for so long have disappeared. They are the only team in the NFL yet to recover an opponents fumble. Outside of the Bears game and the awesome Jay Cutler, they have one interception. That's four games where they have a total of one takeaway. It shouldn't be surprising that they are 1-3 in those games.
On: 10/8/2012 1:33:00 PM
On: 10/8/2012 3:04:00 PM
If the Packers couldn't solve the Cover 2, Rodgers would have terrible stats against the Bears. That's obviously not the case.
On: 10/8/2012 3:11:00 PM
I lost on Pittsburgh ATS, but I'd pick them again. I can't say the same for several of my other lousy Week 5 picks. Back to the lab.
On: 10/8/2012 4:45:00 PM
As a Ridley owner, I'm worried about the fumble. Who knows how Bill reacts.
665 carries since the end of 2009-2010 and one 40-plus carry for Cedric Benson. 14 NFl carries and Alex Green has him equaled. How does a lack of recognizing talent continue to happen in the NFL?
Willis' drop on 4th and 1 was just as much terrible as his fumble, yet the latter is getting much more play.
Shurmur going for it on 4th and 1 from the 36 in the third quarter was the right call. But when he punts on 4th and 5 from the Giants 45 on the same drive was terrible. And weird play where Weeden thought it was ok to throw twice and it ended up as a TD (penalty).
I tweeted this yesterday (@KCPayne26, shameful plug) before the game-winning drive. "Peyton Manning has clearly been holding Reggie Wayne back all of these years." I totally had Wayne ranked wrong this season, he's not dead at 33. And he's not the biggest receiver on the field but his route running, hands, plus-speed has been the key to his success all of these years.
On: 10/8/2012 6:37:00 PM
On: 10/8/2012 11:20:00 PM
On: 10/8/2012 11:33:00 PM
On: 10/9/2012 4:08:00 AM
On: 10/9/2012 9:53:00 AM
On: 10/9/2012 10:26:00 AM
On: 10/9/2012 7:13:00 PM
On: 10/10/2012 4:33:00 PM
On: 10/10/2012 10:02:00 PM
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