Week 11 Observations
- By: Chris Liss
- On: 11/22/2010 8:12:00 PM
- View Comments : 49
Related: Chris Liss
Related: Chris Liss
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| How BABIP Affects the Value of Strikeouts and Walks |
| The league-average batting-average-on-balls-in-play (BABIP) has been on a downward trajectory for the last half decade, something that has implications for the values of different at-bat outcomes. BABIP is down precipitously this season (.289), though it's hard to tell to what extent that's due to all the shifting defenses (better data on where balls are hit have enabled this), or is simply just an April cold-weather/small sample anomaly. |
| NHL Playoff Observations -- Monday |
Just a few things that caught my eye ...
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| Buy Lowest |
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Every year, we hear advice about how it's time to "buy low" on struggling stars like Albert Pujols, Giancarlo Stanton and Robinson Cano. "Get them now for cheap before they heat up!" Except that the market for superstars - at least in competitive leagues - usually doesn't move much after one bad month. (Whether it should in these cases is another question). It's more likely that the Pujols and Stanton owners are doubling down, figuring that only a hot streak from a player of that caliber can undo the damage that's already been done.
That doesn't mean you can't take advantage of the market's early overreaction, but you'll have to aim a little lower and take on quite a bit more risk. The players listed below are those who should be available at an actual discount. |
| Fantasy Rookies |
| Now that the 2012 NFL Draft is complete and rosters look about the way they will when training camps open in late July, it’s time to start the speculation train full steam ahead to fantasy draft days. Many players taken in this class will have a fantasy impact, some immediate, some in small spurts as rookies and some not for years to come. |
| Cowboys Draft: First Blush Thoughts |
| My initial reactions to the 2012 Dallas draft crop. |
Comments
On: 11/23/2010 8:48:00 AM
Sorry--that was my brainstorm last night. I'm still skeptical of Atlanta, but I'm skeptical of the Packers and Eagles too, so I'd have to put them in that best NFC team conversation.
On: 11/23/2010 9:39:00 AM
On: 11/23/2010 9:56:00 AM
I'm assuming the fourth/fifth are better than that one?
On: 11/23/2010 9:59:00 AM
On: 11/23/2010 12:28:00 PM
On: 11/23/2010 6:29:00 PM
1. The Wire
2. Dexter
3. Sopranos
I like Lost better than most, but it falls short of those three.
On: 11/23/2010 6:30:00 PM
On: 11/23/2010 7:03:00 PM
Last year Dexter was bad. You can't go from being an alien on Third Stone from the Sun to being a serial killer and having it dragged out forever with so many chances for Dexter to kill him. Did we ever get complete verification that Trinity killed Rita? Many people knew how he killed and he never admitted, although I think he alluded to it before he died. The ending of Sunday's episode was great; I can't help but think of Julia Stiles dancing on the table to Biggie Smalls in "Ten Things I hate About You" every time I see her on the show.
On: 11/23/2010 7:17:00 PM
On: 11/23/2010 7:40:00 PM
Next year, we all need to write columns that predict things that sound absolutely asinine, then give Johnson as an example to show it could happen.
On: 11/23/2010 8:56:00 PM
And my point about Fisher is pretty much just that - everyone reflexively vouches for him, and while that might be right, it's possible that he's the one that screwed up here, no?
On: 11/23/2010 9:13:00 PM
I think there's something personal here between Fisher (I'm not saying he's innocent in all this) and VY (thanks Captain Obvious!). That being said, if I start a new team tomorrow, I want Fisher and not VY on my team building from the ground up. Just my opinion.
On: 11/23/2010 9:18:00 PM
On: 11/23/2010 9:43:00 PM
On: 11/23/2010 9:52:00 PM
On: 11/24/2010 5:28:00 AM
On: 11/24/2010 6:41:00 AM
1. His team traded way up to draft him, taking him well before anyone thought Mathews would go. This was a solid indicator that the team planned to lean heavily on him (and they probably did and still do).
2. The guy is a superb talent
3. Norv Turner (and thus Ricky Williams, Emmitt Smith, etc.)
4. The AFC West was looking much weaker than it does today
In fact, if it weren't for the ankle injuries, few would be complaining about Mathews right now.
It's funny to see that in google, one of the most searched for terms with Mathews is 'bust.' How dumb.
On: 11/24/2010 7:20:00 AM
On: 11/24/2010 8:06:00 AM
Personally, I find this season of Dexter to be somewhat disappointing. The whole Julia-Stiles-as-serial-killer-in-training is pretty derivative of the Jimmy Smits storyline from season 3, while Quinn/Stan Liddy's investigations of Dexter from inside the force rehash a lot of the same situations as Doakes from seasons 1 and 2. Also, Dexter's cumulative sloppiness (which has steadily escalated over the course of the entire series) is seriously challenging my suspension of disbelief (which has been taxed fairly heavily from the beginning). His ability to evade capture has gone from sublime to ridiculous, so it's difficult to even pretend to imagine those keystone cops as a credible threat.
I thought last season was amazing, and really did touch on a lot of new/different themes (the final scene was one of the greatest moments in television history), but this season just seems like the same old same old. There is usually some sort of midseason twist or revelation that spices things up, and I am hoping we get one soon in Season 5. I'll keep watching, but I am a lot less enthusiastic than many of you seem to be.
On: 11/24/2010 8:14:00 AM
Dexter Season 4, episode 9, titled "Hungry Man" is possibly the greatest episode of Dexter ever. So good. Season 4 had the worst finale though, IMO. Too forced and deus ex machina...didn't do justice to the season long build up.
On: 11/24/2010 8:18:00 AM
Heh, different strokes for different folks. I thought it was cheap and the biggest disappointment so far in the Dexter franchise.
On: 11/24/2010 8:34:00 AM
On: 11/24/2010 8:38:00 AM
On: 11/24/2010 9:23:00 AM
On: 11/24/2010 9:35:00 AM
On: 11/24/2010 10:04:00 AM
On: 11/24/2010 10:26:00 AM
The beauty of Dexter is its deep allegory, because as much as it's not really about a serial killer, it really IS about a serial killer. Forsaking that complexity for a more thoroughly symbolic narrative robs the show of much of its appeal, and I think this season probably emphasizes the latter to its detriment, in my humble opinion. But as Tenac wisely noted, "different strokes for different folks."
On: 11/24/2010 10:47:00 AM
On: 11/24/2010 11:28:00 AM
But on a more literal level (again within the context of the show's narrative) Dexter's "Code" is a rigid ethics of pragmatism (mostly devoid of conventional morality) that allows him to manage his innate bloodlust and function in civilization without landing on death row, and it allows Dexter to appear more Harry Callahan than Jeffery Dahmer, in the eyes of the viewer as well as his own. But The Code's very inflexibility is its sine qua non, and Dexter is *clearly* treading a dangerous path when he empowers his paternal avatar to undermine it in any way. I really hope the show's writers acknowledge that in future episodes, but I am deeply afraid that Dexter will instead stumble down some sort of road toward "redemption." Barf.
On: 11/24/2010 11:47:00 AM
On: 11/24/2010 11:52:00 AM
Now, where's this week's Beating the Book? Must make Turkey Day bets in order to be able to survive the day with the in-laws.
On: 11/24/2010 12:39:00 PM
On: 11/24/2010 1:11:00 PM
On: 11/24/2010 4:32:00 PM
On: 11/24/2010 4:51:00 PM
On: 11/24/2010 9:27:00 PM
I think we can all agree that one of the show's great achievements is taking an essentially horrific character and making him palatable to a mainstream audience (a la Milton's Paradise Lost), even though he's really only a twist of convention away from Jeffrey Dahmer. That narrative sleight of hand is accomplished mostly via "The Code," which under Harry Morgan's direction has shaped a ruthless proto-sadist (the adolescent Dexter Morgan) into a sympathetic anti-hero, equal parts everyman and noble vigilante. But The Code itself is a delicate construct that both suppresses and obscures his fundamental inhumanity ... in his heart of hearts, the guy is still a cruel and vicious sociopath masquerading as a likable protagonist, and that irresolvable conflict is the crux of much of the show's dramatic tension.
Ultimately, there really is no "room for his true desires in his life," since the most prominent of those desires tend toward the unforgivably obscene. As much as we like Dexter right now (and a whole lot of that good will should be attributed to Michael C. Hall's nuanced portrayal of the character's subtleties), everyone he knows and/or loves - including his sister, his kids, and even Lumen, as well as the audience itself - would abandon him if he forsakes The Code and gives full reign to those "true desires." Accordingly, there is no actual redemption out there for Dexter Morgan ... the best he can hope for is to strictly observe The Code, and thereby pass through the world mostly unnoticed, while channeling his vice into arguably forgivable (if not totally productive) "contributions" to society.
Dexter's futile desire to break those chains and transcend his ignoble condition is rich with dramatic potential, as it echoes neo-classic tragedies of irresolvable human suffering, with recurring themes of original sin and damnation (just as each of his presumptuous efforts to live outside The Code can be considered classic expressions of tragic hubris). If you believe (as I do) that much of the show's pathos can be attributed to its essential nature as a post-modern tragedy, you will concede that a fundamentally evil Dexter is a necessary component of the entire formula, just as his most sincere efforts to transform himself must necessarily end in spectacular and heart-wrenching failure.
As we've all acknowledged, the show can be interpreted and enjoyed on many levels; but this is the one that resonates the most with me, and I am desperately hoping that that show's writers don't forsake it in favor of some sort of milquetoast redemption story ... but I am not terribly optimistic. Nor am I terribly optimistic about my wide receiving corps, which like yours includes (SPOILER ALERT) Randy Moss and Steve Smith (CAR). But that's a story more appropriate for a sports blog ...
On: 11/25/2010 7:43:00 AM
On: 11/25/2010 9:49:00 AM
You (Chris) are absolutely correct when you say that "you never get the sense that he needs to restrain himself from acting out against innocent people," and that phenomenon is one of the show's most impressive achievements; because there is ample evidence to suggest that the man's *entire life* has been one long exercise in restraint from acting out against innocent people. The show has repeatedly emphasized that Dexter's bloodlust is innate and indiscriminate (remember the neighbor's dog when he was thirteen?). In fact, it is only The Code that dictates who he may kill and under what circumstances. Similarly the code *explicitly* requires that Dexter kill not just bad guys, but actual murderers (presumably effecting a net positive return on decent folks living in society). Over the years, many of Dexter's investigations of potential targets have been hampered if not thwarted by his inability to definitively establish that some obvious scumbag was an actual killer.
As mentioned previously, the strict confines of The Code allow Dexter to not simply get by in society as he satisfies his abject bloodlust, but also (and perhaps more importantly) to be perceived favorably by the audience. But all the while, the show makes it very clear that Dexter is still a violent sociopath at heart, who kills *exclusively* for personal pleasure (the sort of pleasure he always craves but never quite gets from "normal" relationships and personal interactions). He would be an ineffective protagonist if we believed from scene to scene that he might snap at any point, and begin senselessly killing innocents like Quinn, Cody, Astor, his sister, et. al., but the show clearly suggests that is *exactly* what would happen, had Dexter not been raised to observe The Code religiously, and what might indeed happen should he stray too far from its tenets.
Accordingly, Dexter's ongoing attempts to "reinterpret" or "expand" the code (while wonderful metaphors for personal growth on the broader thematic level), paradoxically become a hair-raising game of high-stakes Jenga on a more literal level within the context of the narrative. Each small modification destabilizes The Code's underlying structure, and the only possible outcome is an eventual collapse into the abyss. It's not a question of "if," but rather "when" ... hence the tragedy of Dexter Morgan.
Once again, this is why I desperately fear any sort of "redemption story" for Dexter's character. Earlier in our discussion, our friend Tenac deplored last season's finale as "too forced and deus ex machina." I don't find that criticism particularly valid, since nothing about Trinity's slaughter of Rita appeared to contradict his character, or significantly undermine the internal logic of the narrative. Conversely, any conclusion to the series that allows Dexter to "outgrow" his tragic flaw (or even worse, posits that he was never really an inveterate sociopath to begin with), will be an absolutely intolerable resolution, much more deserving of that specific criticism.
Anyway, I have probably restated the argument too much, but I have very much enjoyed this conversation, and the opportunity to discuss a few key aspects of a brilliant show that I have always admired but never really articulated. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone ... enjoy the turkey and football!
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