Trend Spotting, Part II

• By: Justin Phan
• On: 11/30/2009 1:32:00 PM

Related: Justin Phan Golden State Warriors Philadelphia 76ers Phoenix Suns NBA 



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In my first installment of Trend Spotting I took a look at some of the more significant statistical trends that were having major negative effects on players' values. I'll flip the script here and take a look at some current trends that are having major positive effects on player values.


Louis Williams (per-game rank: 22)
Trending up: FG%, FT%, AST, REB, TO
Level of optimism: High. I did not include PTS, 3PTM, or STL here because his per-36 averages in these categories are very similar to what they were last season. Williams showed the propensity early on his career ('06-'07) to be proficient in distributing the ball and crashing the glass, so what we're seeing this season isn't an aberration. His usage has dropped considerably this year (-5.2), which has allowed him to concentrate his efforts on other areas besides scoring. The FG% leap is fairly massive, from 39.8% to 49.7%, and on first glance his FG% this year appears to be a huge outlier (career 41.5% shooter heading into this season). This is true, but only to a certain extent. The leap in Lou's FG% stems from increased proficiency on shots around the rim (51% on 3.7 attempts last year to 68% on 5.1 attempts this year). Considering the league average on shots around the rim is 61%, his conversion rate doesn't really raise any red flags because his skill set at finishing around the rim is above-average. The reduced turnovers can be explained by his lowered usage rate and the frequency at which Andre Iguodala has been dribbling the ball up the court. Lou has made some massive strides in his game this season and has thrived in Eddie Jordan's new pro-style Princeton offense. I buy his per-game value the rest of the way at a top-50 level.

• Note: Williams is expected to miss seven more weeks with a broken jaw. If someone dropped him in a ROTO league then be sure to scoop him up right away and stash him on your bench. H2H owners should target a Week 10-11 pickup as he should be back in action by Week 13.

Channing Frye (per-game rank: 23)
Trending up: 3PTM, PTS, FG%, AST
Level of optimism: Moderate. The vast majority of Frye's value spike can be attributed to his sudden fascination for the long ball. Frye has hit 46 treys through 17 games this season after coming into the year having hit just 20 in his prior 278 games. A 70-attempt sample over the course of four seasons isn't nearly enough to really extrapolate conclusive data from, but looking at his three-year track record on long two's (16-23 feet) should give us a better idea. During that span Frye has shot 42.3% from that range on 786 attempts -- a pretty solid conversion rate with the league average sitting at 39%. The fact that Frye is cutting down on those long two's for threes is encouraging in and of itself since it's widely known that the long two is the worst shot a player can attempt. Can he continue to shoot at a 46.9% clip from three? Probably not. But it's not like he's going to fall off below 40% either. I think a 42% rate is certainly reasonable, and even when you're factoring that in he's still hitting 2.4 treys per game. Frye has shown no signs of slowing down (22 treys in first 8 games, 21 treys in last 8 games) and the return of Robin Lopez shouldn't affect his value much.


Anthony Morrow (per-game rank: 42)
Trending up: 3PTM, STL, FG%
Level of optimism: Low. Coming off a stellar rookie season where he led the NBA in three-point percentage, Morrow has found a way to outdo himself once again this season. He has hit 52.5% of his three-point attempts through 15 games which has in large ballooned his field-goal percentage to 51.8%. Now considering the NBA single-season record for 3PT% is 52.4%, set by Steve Kerr back in '95, there is no way you can expect Morrow to continue to convert these triples at a historic rate. Just as concerning is his lack of progress in other areas. Morrow's assist rate is down (11.3 to 10.1) and his turnover rate has risen significantly (7.4 to 10.7). His value is almost entirely reliant on his three-point shooting, which is almost never a promising sign. Also keep in mind that the Y! player rater tends to give too much weight to the 3PTM category which causes three-point shooters to become over-ranked. If you've got an owner that tends to overpay for a player's price tag (current rank) then by all means sell high, because Morrow is more of a strong utility play than anything.