Top 10 ADP Fallers in PPR Leagues -- Wide Receivers
We’re going to continue with our look at the ADP trends for wide receivers in PPR leagues today. We’ve already looked at the top 10 risers, so today we’re going to move on and look at the top 10 fallers for the last two weeks. There are a number of reasons that a player is slipping in the ADP rankings, whether it’s a position battle lost, suspension, injury or possibly even just a misconception by the public as to what to expect or what the player’s role will be throughout the season. Whatever the reason may be, slipping in the ADP ranks usually doesn’t bode well for the player’s fantasy value, however, sometimes, it can also mean that you can grab the player at more of a bargain rate than usual, especially if you think that eventually they will break out. So without further ado, let’s take a look at the top 10 fallers right now.
|Player||Team||Current ADP||Change||1 Wk Ago||Change||2 Wks Ago||Overall Trend|
The ADP for Josh Gordon has taken a hit over the last few weeks thanks in part to the two-game suspension he received for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. He tested positive for codeine and we’re not talking just excessive amounts of Tylenol. On top of that there has been plenty of talk about Gordon’s lackluster attitude and that he’s been loafing around practices. Throw in some patella tendinitis and you can understand the 21.7% drop we see in the overall trend. But take note that there has been a recent climb, though fairly small, as Gordon continues to get work in practice and still looks to be a prominent target for Brandon Weeden. It’s hard to imagine him rising much more, but if he’s going to see a significant number of targets, he could be worth a quick stash on your bench.
Reports on DeAndre Hopkins had been great leading up to the team’s second preseason game, but a concussion during the game has quickly taken any momentum away for the rookie receiver. He’s already been ruled out for the team’s third preseason game and is actually still considered to be in the first phase of the NFL’s concussion protocol. There was hope that he would gain clearance to play and we saw a recent increase in ADP over the week, but that now seems unlikely to continue until we get official word that he can be back on the field.
While Golden Tate’s overall trend is down, he’s seen a major increase over the past week. With Percy Harvin out for the season and Sidney Rice on the bench nursing a knee injury, Tate has been the lead guy on the practice field. It hasn’t translated to the preseason games just yet, as he has just four catches in preseason games, but confidence in him remains high as evidenced by the 12.3% increase he’s seen this past week.
The ADP for Ryan Broyles appears to be seeing the same trend as that of Tate, however, this might be based more on speculation than on actual evidence. While most fantasy writers are hyping Broyles as a big-time sleeper this year, he’s continued to work exclusively with the second-string until while Nate Burleson continues to line up with the first-team. The expectation is that Broyles will soon overtake him, but for now, that just doesn’t seem to be the case.
The next six players on the list have all seen a downward trend overall, but if you look closely at the numbers, you’ll see that the change in trend only amounts to a small handful of picks. While each one may have something specific affecting their current value, none of it seems major enough to warrant you downgrading them on your draft board.
Wes Welker – He’s returning from a minor ankle sprain, so anyone who was even remotely concerned can now rest easier. How the targets get distributed between him, Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas still hasn’t been laid out yet and that could be concerning, but the injury will have nothing to do with that.
Tavon Austin – He’s being featured more as a punt returner than as a leading receiver and that is going to keep his value from rising much further. Chris Givens is the lead receiver which leaves Austin to compete for targets with Brian Quick and Austin Pettis.
Randall Cobb – What was first deemed a minor injury, the biceps issue Cobb has been suffering from is now considered more serious and coach Mike McCarthy now says that the effects could be long-term. That alone will keep Cobb’s value from rising and if we find out that it’s a more severe strain or even an actual tear, then he’s likely to see an even steeper drop.
Eric Decker – The presence of Welker is obviously affecting the overall value and ADP trend of Decker, but after watching him catch six passes for 66 yards and seeing the number of targets he saw in the Broncos’ third preseason game, he could end up back on the rise.
Vincent Brown – He’s working exclusively with the first-team offense, but it seems that fantasy owners are growing concerned with the lack of production in the preseason. It shouldn’t be too much of a concern, but while Brown is expected to be the top guy in San Diego right now, he should be treated more like a WR3 than a WR1 until he proves otherwise.
Greg Jennings – Though he’s been quiet in camp, Jennings is still expected to be a viable fantasy producer. He may not be the guy he once was in Green Bay, but reports are coming in that he is still showing that burst of speed on the field and can still be considered a solid pick in the middle rounds of your draft. Obviously having Christian Ponder at the helm is a bit of a value detractor, but even the top receiver on a bad team is going to have value in fantasy. And for those who support Ponder, it's not that I'm hating on the guy. It's just that his abilities have a direct affect on the fantasy value of several players, so you MUST take that into account. Take a mediocre wide receiver, give him Tom Brady and the value goes up. Take a top wide receiver and given him Ponder...well, you know...
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at email@example.com.