The Recent Trend Of Top QB Good Health
- By: schoenke
- On: 8/13/2013 9:01:00 PM
- View Comments : 0
From 1998 to 2007, a quarterback that was picked in the top 50 overall in average draft position (ADP) had a 37 percent chance of ending up a bust. There were 72 quarterbacks in that period taken in the top 50 of ADP. Of those, 27 didn't finish in the top 12 at QB in fantasy points by the end of the season (which I define as a bust since you could have perhaps found a better QB on the waiver wire). Of those 27, 23 were due in some part to an injury and the other four lost their job due to poor performance.
Historically quarterbacks are busts at very high rates - the highest of any of the main fantasy positions (QB, RB, TE, WR):
|POS||ADP||Total VBD||Avg. VBD||Players||Bust||Bust Percentage|
But look what's happened since 2008. Quarterbacks that are the consensus best in the league - at least according to ADP - are staying healthy and productive. Since 2008, just 19 percent of quarterbacks (6 of 31) taken in the top 50 of ADP have turned into busts. And Just four were busts due to injury (which may be harder to forecast).
Is this just a fluke of a smaller sample size? Is it just that Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have been very healthy (other than the two missed seasons from Brady and Manning). Have the recent rule changes making it harder to hit a QB had a big impact?
Here's the impressive list:
|Season||Player||ADP||Final Position Rank|
Does this change your thinking about quarterback? I still think the depth at the position means you should wait on a quarterback. And 2013 may feature the deepest quarterback group ever, so I'm not afraid to wait on a QB until crazy late (I took Jay Cutler as my first QB in the 11th round in a 16-team league last month).
However, this data may indicate that if you are in a two-QB league - or a league with a QB in the flex - it may not be a bad idea to invest in two top-tier QBs. After all, the recent trend shows they hold value.