The Drop-Off

• By: Erickson
• On: 2/21/2012 3:48:00 PM

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The Drop-Off

In virtually every draft or auction, there’s a dynamic at work that flummoxes even experienced fantasy players. At some point, there’s going to be a run on a particular commodity, be it a position or a category. It might be that the final top tier catchers are running out, or the last of the 30-steal players are going off the board. Meanwhile, as you await your pick three slots away, you have the last two of that commodity sitting in your queue, waiting to take one of those two with your pick, only to see them both go before you. What do you do next? A common mistake I see is for the league owner to elevate the next guy from that classification to catch up on the run at that commodity, especially in the middle rounds of the draft. A related mistake, as articulated by RotoWire colleague Chris Liss on our radio show, is to prop up the last remaining guy in a tier to make sure you don’t get left out, when there’s better value available elsewhere.

When you knowingly pass up value to reach for commodity, you get caught up in a cycle where you continually need to catch up to your opponents in later rounds of the draft. Certainly, snake drafts and even more so auctions aren’t perfectly efficient exercises, so such opportunities to catch up exist. But your margin for error in later rounds, where the error-rate is higher, is much smaller, and you’re counting on your opponents to err more often. It’s a tough way to get a leg-up on your league. This problem is an even greater issue in auctions, where the owner that overspends on a commodity at the drop-off has less to work with later on in filling other important roles on his team.

Here are some of the ways to combat this problem.

- Do your homework. The best way to avoid getting caught up in a run on at a position or commodity is to really know the player pool, so that you’re fully aware of what exists at each tier. Many successful owners create tiers ahead of time, and then try to map out their strategies accordingly. If you play in auction leagues, we have a <a href=”http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/dollarvalues_grid.htm”>Grid Tool</a> to give you a start. But I’d highly recommend you do your own legwork here. There’s the obvious benefit of getting to know each player better when you do it yourself, and you might also have differing opinions about where a player slots than we do (or anyone else who you lean upon for advice). Moreover, nearly every league has its own character and thus its own drop-off points.

- Have alternatives ready. Drafts and auctions feature a certain amount of give-and-take. It’s a rare occasion where you’re able to accomplish everything that you’d like. It’s more likely that at some point, the going rate for a certain type of player is going to be too much to bear. If you had planned on getting one of the top eight catchers but found the going rate too high, be ready to take the value at a different position and have your top options at catcher for later in the draft. A good contingency plan can cure a lot of ills.

- Get ahead of the drop-off. This especially applies in auctions, when the player nomination process isn’t necessarily linear. If you have planned on spending $15 on one closer from a cluster of six closers, and the bidding has stalled out at $12 on the guy ranked fifth in that tier, but with others you still alike ahead of him still available, you should still go ahead and buy him under your budgeted amount and spend the difference elsewhere. The only exception in this scenario might be if there have been other closers auctioned off before and they were all getting purchased for less than you expected. But more often than not, when you pass up a bargain in your tier, you’ll have to overpay later. Auctions are more of an agnostic exercise than a targeted one.

More often than not, these drop-offs occur with scarce positions (C, SS, 2B, 3B) and scarce commodities (saves, stolen bases). To give you an example of how I prepare for a draft, here is my top tier of catchers for mixed league drafts, and my top contingencies if I get shut out. In a standard 12-team mixed league that requires you to start two catchers, I try to get one of the top eight catchers, though I’m rarely the first to draft a catcher. In an ideal world, though, I’ll get two catchers from that tier by the eighth round, or one from that tier by then and then wait 10 rounds to fill the other slot. If I miss out, however, I’ll wait six-to-seven rounds to grab my first catcher, and instead double-up with two mid-round catchers.

Top-Tier Catchers

Carlos Santana
Buster Posey
Mike Napoli
Brian McCann
Joe Mauer
Miguel Montero
Matt Wieters
Alex Avila

In most of the mock drafts that I’ve done so far, I’ve had at least one of Montero, Wieters or Avila.

Top Contingencies

Wilson Ramos
Jonathan Lucroy
Salvador Perez
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Devin Mesoraco

The key is to not overreact and take that first catcher in the ninth or 10th round, but instead realize that the value will come to you later on. If the league is shutting you out on catchers, punish them by taking what they’re leaving behind for you. If you get shut out or priced out on closers, beat them by having a far superior staff of starting pitchers and trade for closers midseason. Be ready for what happens in the draft, and take advantage of value opportunities that always exist.