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The ADP is Stagnant, But Not For Long

Aaaaaahhhhhhh. You feel that? That warm comforting hug your mind is getting? That’s the feeling of baseball in the air. Yeah baby! Spring Training 2013 has officially begun as pitchers and catchers reported for work today. It’s the first official sign that the ice is melting (sorry east coast) and winter is coming to a close.

What it also means is that the ADP data that we’re going to be analyzing is going to start seeing a whole lot more movement over the next several weeks. As we’ve been looking at the ADP data from the NFBC over the last few weeks, we’ve tracked movement here and there, but for the most part, it’s been fairly minimal. Trends of less than 10.0-percent usually don’t amount to a whole lot of pick movement even if you’re talking about late-round selections. The difference you’re seeing amounts to no more than a pick or two at the top, a handful of picks towards the middle or maybe a round/round and a half if you’re talking about players who go somewhere in the 18th round or beyond.

That’s not to say that the data is useless. It’s just stagnant right now. With only a few minor exceptions, the majority of the offseason player movement has been completed and there’s not much else to go on until spring training games begin and position battles are won and lost. Take a look below at the Top 100 players in the NFBC. Granted, that only accounts for roughly the first six and a half rounds, but the movement below is just as minimal in the grand scheme of things right now.

Rank Player Team Pos Current ADP 1 Week Ago Trend
1 Ryan Braun Mil OF 1.86 1.79 -0.07%
2 Miguel Cabrera Det 3B 2.07 2.09 0.02%
3 Mike Trout LAA OF 2.14 2.15 0.01%
4 Robinson Cano NYY 2B 4.53 4.62 0.09%
5 Andrew McCutchen Pit OF 5.93 6.00 0.07%
6 Matt Kemp LAD OF 6.21 6.32 0.11%
7 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 7.28 7.32 0.04%
8 Joey Votto Cin 1B 7.98 8.03 0.05%
9 Prince Fielder Det 1B 10.81 11.18 0.37%
10 Carlos Gonzalez Col OF 11.42 11.35 -0.07%
11 Josh Hamilton LAA OF 12.16 11.76 -0.40%
12 Stephen Strasburg Was SP 13.26 13.00 -0.26%
13 Buster Posey SF C 13.74 13.21 -0.53%
14 Justin Verlander Det SP 14.07 13.59 -0.48%
15 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 16.28 16.50 0.22%
16 Giancarlo Stanton Mia OF 16.70 17.12 0.42%
17 Troy Tulowitzki Col SS 17.14 17.79 0.65%
18 Hanley Ramirez LAD SS 18.93 19.12 0.19%
19 Jose Bautista Tor OF 19.16 19.79 0.63%
20 Adrian Beltre Tex 3B 19.91 19.47 -0.44%
21 Evan Longoria TB 3B 20.93 20.91 -0.02%
22 Jose Reyes Tor SS 21.95 22.21 0.26%
23 Justin Upton Atl OF 23.37 23.26 -0.11%
24 David Wright NYM 3B 24.02 23.91 -0.11%
25 Dustin Pedroia Bos 2B 26.60 26.59 -0.01%
26 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 1B 27.19 28.26 1.07%
27 David Price TB SP 28.16 28.12 -0.04%
28 Jason Heyward Atl OF 28.60 28.56 -0.04%
29 Ian Kinsler Tex 2B 30.86 30.24 -0.62%
30 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B 31.84 31.65 -0.19%
31 Adam Jones Bal OF 32.33 32.76 0.43%
33 Ryan Zimmerman Was 3B 33.86 33.85 -0.01%
32 Bryce Harper Was OF 33.86 34.68 0.82%
34 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos OF 34.16 34.12 -0.04%
35 Felix Hernandez Sea SP 36.07 36.97 0.90%
36 Starlin Castro ChC SS 36.53 37.24 0.71%
37 Chase Headley SD 3B 37.42 36.94 -0.48%
38 Curtis Granderson NYY OF 39.88 40.15 0.27%
39 Cole Hamels Phi SP 42.00 41.47 -0.53%
40 Yoenis Cespedes Oak OF 43.28 44.09 0.81%
41 Aramis Ramirez Mil 3B 43.79 42.74 -1.05%
42 B.J. Upton Atl OF 43.98 44.50 0.52%
43 Matt Cain SF SP 44.02 43.94 -0.08%
44 Ian Desmond Was SS 44.28 43.76 -0.52%
45 Billy Butler KC 1B 45.51 46.24 0.73%
46 Jay Bruce Cin OF 45.60 45.21 -0.39%
47 Matt Holliday StL OF 45.70 45.44 -0.26%
48 Craig Kimbrel Atl RP 47.16 46.56 -0.60%
49 Ben Zobrist TB OF 49.05 49.06 0.01%
50 Gio Gonzalez Was SP 50.47 49.65 -0.82%
51 Cliff Lee Phi SP 51.77 52.24 0.47%
52 Jered Weaver LAA SP 52.07 51.26 -0.81%
53 Allen Craig StL 1B 53.21 53.44 0.23%
54 Paul Goldschmidt Ari 1B 53.65 54.76 1.11%
55 Jimmy Rollins Phi SS 54.44 53.53 -0.91%
56 Zack Greinke LAD SP 55.30 56.41 1.11%
57 Aaron Hill Ari 2B 56.14 56.91 0.77%
58 Joe Mauer Min C 58.47 57.85 -0.62%
59 Madison Bumgarner SF SP 60.16 60.24 0.08%
60 Jason Kipnis Cle 2B 62.37 60.82 -1.55%
61 Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 62.88 62.21 -0.67%
62 Brandon Phillips Cin 2B 62.91 63.85 0.94%
63 Yu Darvish Tex SP 65.37 66.18 0.81%
64 R.A. Dickey Tor SP 65.42 64.97 -0.45%
65 Carlos Santana Cle C 65.58 65.38 -0.20%
66 Alex Rios CWS OF 66.98 66.26 -0.72%
67 Brett Lawrie Tor 3B 68.51 67.24 -1.27%
68 Chris Sale CWS SP 68.95 69.00 0.05%
69 Yadier Molina StL C 71.07 71.62 0.55%
70 Desmond Jennings TB OF 71.21 69.85 -1.36%
71 Adam Wainwright StL SP 73.81 75.68 1.87%
72 CC Sabathia NYY SP 73.84 74.24 0.40%
73 Kris Medlen Atl SP 76.56 76.35 -0.21%
74 Shin-Soo Choo Cin OF 77.19 78.91 1.72%
75 Victor Martinez Det C 77.74 77.82 0.08%
76 Michael Bourn Atl OF 78.42 76.50 -1.92%
77 James Shields KC SP 78.95 79.26 0.31%
78 Max Scherzer Det SP 79.63 80.62 0.99%
79 Elvis Andrus Tex SS 79.65 79.09 -0.56%
80 Matt Wieters Bal C 79.65 79.82 0.17%
81 Wilin Rosario Col C 80.37 79.44 -0.93%
82 Pablo Sandoval SF 3B 81.88 82.97 1.09%
83 Aroldis Chapman Cin RP 81.91 81.44 -0.47%
84 Freddie Freeman Atl 1B 84.51 84.91 0.40%
85 Roy Halladay Phi SP 88.30 87.91 -0.39%
86 Johnny Cueto Cin SP 89.26 90.06 0.80%
87 Jonathan Papelbon Phi RP 89.84 89.76 -0.08%
88 Yovani Gallardo Mil SP 90.02 91.18 1.16%
89 Jordan Zimmermann Was SP 90.58 90.21 -0.37%
90 Mat Latos Cin SP 90.93 91.21 0.28%
91 Jose Altuve Hou 2B 93.12 93.71 0.59%
92 Corey Hart Mil 1B 93.26 85.09 -8.17%
93 Alex Gordon KC OF 94.56 95.76 1.20%
94 Asdrubal Cabrera Cle SS 97.00 96.68 -0.32%
95 Miguel Montero Ari C 97.63 97.09 -0.54%
96 Eric Hosmer KC 1B 97.98 95.06 -2.92%
97 Jason Motte StL RP 98.30 99.41 1.11%
98 Anthony Rizzo ChC 1B 98.93 98.74 -0.19%
99 Matt Moore TB SP 99.42 100.26 0.84%
100 Mark Trumbo LAA OF 100.02 105.20 5.18%

There are only two players who have seen movement that is relatively noticeable – Corey Hart and Mark Trumbo. Hart continues to drop due to the knee surgery that will have him shelved for most of the first half and Trumbo has actually been on the rise, finally cracking the top 100, since Kendrys Morales was dealt to Seattle, opening up the DH spot for him. Aside from those two the movement within the NFBC is almost non-existent.

Hopefully last week’s column inspired you to give a closer look at the ADP here at Mock Draft Central. We all recognize that the data has been somewhat unreliable to date, but this is where it starts to get a little better. The murky picture clouded by default rankings is going to start taking a much better shape with the start of spring training. Keep in mind, that as more people start doing complete mock drafts, the fluctuations you’re going to see early on are going to be big. They aren’t something that should be alarming or concerning right now as things will eventually level off. However, you should definitely take a look here at the site’s ADP Trend Report and take note of some of the bigger risers and fallers which should help you get a better understanding of where many of them should settle in as we inch closer to Opening Day.

Here are just a few of my favorites to watch:

Ryan Braun, OF MIL (+24.5%) – If he can beat the rap once, he can do it again, right? Few people seem concerned with this latest batch of allegations from the clinic in Miami and he is vaulting right back up to the number one spot he enjoys so much.

Jose Bautista, OF TOR (+49.3%) – Joey Bats makes the leap into the top 10 after lingering in the early to middle second round. The question is, is he worth it now that he no longer has third base eligibility?

Curtis Granderson, OF NYY (+142.6) – From third round selection to getting picked up on the turn after the first, it looks as if people are less concerned with the batting average and focusing more on the 40-plus bombs with double-digit steals. Smart people.

B.J. Upton, OF ATL (+81.5%) – Apparently the move from Tampa and the addition of his brother as a teammate has put people in the mindset that B.J. is ready to put it all together. He’s already shown the 20-20 ability, but maybe this time he adds some batting average? Obviously people are considering it as makes his immense climb up the ranks.

Doesn’t matter if your last name is Kershaw or Verlander or Lee or Hernandez as all the starting pitchers are dropping in the ranks with more drafters listening to the experts about the depth of pitching and the reasons to wait. They’ll be back up in no time though so don’t think you’re getting one of the aforementioned arms at any sort of a bargain rate. Well, maybe King Felix, but we’ll wait on some further test results before passing judgment.

Jason Motte, RP STL (+71.9%) – Yes the closer position is extremely volatile which is why the value of a guy with a great arm and killer job security is going through the roof. The market will level off, but if you’re looking for elite closers, you may have to act earlier than you’d like, as they all appear to be on the rise.

Melky Cabrera, OF TOR (-36.5%) – Unlike Braun, hardly anyone thinks Melky can beat the rap here and if he’s found guilty again, you’re looking at a 100-game suspension. Suddenly everyone’s quiet on the great debate, huh?

Elvis Andrus, SS TEX (-17.2%) – While everyone wants to hear what will happen with Jurickson Profar, it would appear as if Andrus’ stock is taking a big hit. Texas may trade him, but then again….they may not. He’ll need a strong start to the year to get back in the public’s good graces.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B PIT (+31.3%) – The power is real and now it appears that some are expecting that either the average will come up or that he’ll smack so many dingers than no one will care about his average. Hello, Adam Dunn.

Mike Morse, OF SEA (-30.8%) – No one believes in him as a member of the Mariners. Will Safeco Field prove to kill the power of yet another strong bat?

Juan Pierre, OF MIA (-20.4%) – Really? He’s got a full-time job, the leadoff spot and still something left in the tank. Do people not like late-round picks who can swipe 40 bases? Weird. I bet he starts to trend upwards soon enough.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for more detailed questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

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