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Studying ADP: The Trendy Picks of 2013

Every year there comes a list of players whom the fantasy experts laud and the masses flock to. They might not be the biggest names out there, but they are the ones who are expected to have the biggest breakouts relative to their draft positions. That’s right, they’re the sleepers of 2013.

However, for those of you who follow me around the interwebs, you’ll know that I’ve been down on the concept of sleepers lately. With so much coverage these days, those “off the radar” picks that we used to love so much are now becoming trendy household names. When you look at the industry mocks out there, those players emerge from the shadows but they appear at the appropriate times. However, in looking at the mocks both in the NFBC and at Mock Draft Central, you start seeing them coming off the board earlier than originally anticipated. Suddenly, a guy you could sneak through in the 22nd round is coming off the board in the 18th as the masses start reaching more and more. And while the NFBC is considered the more reliable ADP right now due to the fantasy knowledge level of those participating, some of those guys are just as much at fault.

So today we’re going to take a look at the ADP trends of a few of the players that are topping sleeper lists all over. We’ll see who is rising and by how much and see if maybe one or two of them are still maintaining their “best kept secret” status. Probably not, but there’s always hope.

Allen Craig, 1B/OF STL – If you’ve been following along and saw my ADP analysis for the second half of the top 100, then I shouldn’t have to go into too much detail here. His current ADP in the NFBC is 53.23 which is just a 0.21% drop from last week and he’s holding steady as a mid-third round pick. At MDC, his ADP is an insane 37.18, up just 0.20% from last week but up over 9.0% from two weeks ago. I cannot stress enough as to how much of a reach this is. Again, 29-years old, never had a full-time gig, and four trips to the DL in last two years. You can do better with a pick this high.

Josh Rutledge, SS COL – His current NFBC ADP is at 163.20 which is a 14.55% increase over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, his ADP on MDC sits at a very sleeper-like 220.20 which is actually down 4.90% from two weeks ago. That tells me the pundits are onto him but the masses aren’t just yet. Given the lack of depth at the position, it’s probably just a matter of time before they are so be careful.

Desmond Jennings, OF TB – The speedy Rays outfielder is being tabbed for an expected breakout, but with speed being so plentiful, no one in the NFBC is reaching too high for him. In fact, his current 71.30 ADP is 1.33% lower than it was three weeks ago which means that he’s basically hovering around the late fourth/early fifth round still. In the MDC world, he hasn’t been seeing nearly as much love as his 85.17 ADP puts him in the seventh round in 12-team leagues. He is, however, trending upwards, increasing by 7.40% over the last two weeks, so perhaps we see a continuation there are we move further into spring training.

Marco Estrada, SP MIL – With a current ADP of 222.18 in the NFBC and 232.37 at MDC, you can see that the masses haven’t quite caught up to the supposed smarties just yet. However, given the fact that he is going somewhere in the 14th round in the NFBC means that it’s just a matter of time before he starts trending upwards on MDC. He used to be going in the 18th round in NFBC play just a few short weeks ago.

Salvador Perez, C KC – While a very popular pick at catcher this year, it’s a relief to see that he hasn’t really moved over the last several weeks in NFBC play (just a 0.20% decrease over a four week span), and while he’s dropped 12.90% over the last two weeks at MDC, his 132.97 doesn’t differentiate between one and two-catcher leagues. He’s, more or less, staying exactly where he has been for the majority of the offseason.

Jurickson Profar, SS TEX – It’ll be interesting to watch what the Rangers do to get Profar into their lineup this year as he is currently blocked by Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus. But that doesn’t seem to concern anyone as he is still being drafted in the 17th round of the NFBC (ADP: 255.14). Actually though, that’s a 15.64% drop from where he was going three weeks ago so it looks like those who are competing for the big prize are coming to their senses a little. . Unfortunately, the masses haven’t quite caught up as he owns a 225.10 ADP at MDC which is up 1.7% from two weeks ago. Again, I’m not saying he’s not a talented ball player, but without a starting job, you can’t be taking him over strong, proven talent unless it’s a hardcore keeper league.

Billy Hamilton, SS CIN – With no starting job and word coming that the minors beckon, he’s actually dropped nearly 20.0% from where he was in the NFBC about a month ago and has plateaued over these last two weeks with a current ADP of 298.23 or a late 19th round pick. At MDC, however, people still seem amped up about his speed potential and are probably assuming that he has a job sooner rather than later. His current 236.79 ADP is a 4.8% increase over where he was going just two weeks ago. There’s no doubt that his time will come, but with so much speed available in drafts, is he really worth eating the bench spot until you find out?  

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for more detailed questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

Comments

By: negan50
On: 2/13/2013 6:33:00 PM
Would you elaborate a bit on Rutledge...not clear to me what you recommend or endorse as his value. I like him but have considered him a late round bench value or MI if fI have that slot. Not been confident enough to make him my starting SS or 2B. If I wait for him as starter I can be in some trouble at MI if I miss him.
 
By: Howard Bender
On: 2/14/2013 12:34:00 AM
@negan50 -- I'm definitely a fan. Has the skills to go 15-15, but with just 291 AB above the Double-A level, I'm just not ready to trust him as my starting SS/2B. Solid as a mid to late round choice for the MI slot, but make sure there's a contingency plan in place.
 
By: smitty1512
On: 2/16/2013 11:13:00 PM
 

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