Steady Your Itchy Trigger Finger

• By: Shannon McKeown
• On: 11/5/2012 11:00:00 AM

Related: Shannon McKeown Detroit Pistons Milwaukee Bucks Orlando Magic Phoenix Suns Toronto Raptors Washington Wizards NBA 



• View Comments : 9

The NBA regular season is 82 games long. But even with fantasy owners knowing that fact, some of us like to jump the gun on early-season successes or failures and make rash roster decisions. Let's take a look at some of the most popular adds/drops in Yahoo Leagues the past couple of days:

Adds

Carl Landry

Jarrett Jack

Larry Sanders

E'Twaun Moore

J.J. Redick

Drops

Rodney Stuckey

Samuel Dalembert

Jared Dudley

Bradley Beal

Jonas Valanciunas

If someone were to offer me a package of those five players on the most-dropped list for those five players on the most-added list, I would take the deal in the heartbeat. I'm not going to jump the gun on a handful of players who have had a good game or two, instead banking on the players with the history of proven worth (Stuckey, Dalembert, Dudley) or the young rookies with tons of potential (Beal, Valanciuanas).

That's not to say I dislike those most-added players, but expectations should be tempered for many of them. Landry, Jack and Redick will all hold plenty of value in deeper formats, as each of those players has significant roles off the bench for their respective teams. But no one should expect them to continue to outperform their career per-36 marks like they have during the first week of the season, Redick, for instance, has averaged 14.8 points throughout his career per-36 minutes played. Consider me skeptical that he?ll continue to average 22.5 points on 64 percent shooting from the floor. Landry has seen a similarly large per-36 scoring average jump while hitting 65-percent of his shots, while Jack's per-36 assist numbers are up 2.7 dimes per game over his career mark. For each of these three, I expect them to regress back to their respective norms, while having slight adjustments for increased usages for a player like Redick, who has an increased role with his team.

Sanders and Moore are more of unknowns than the rest of the group, but I'm not willing to bet on either breaking out and sustaining value over the long haul. Moore saw increased minutes due to Jameer Nelson?s absence Sunday, but he?ll be a clear-cut reserve for the Magic this year. Meanwhile, Sanders is shooting a ridiculous 81.3 percent from the floor through two games. His hot hand will cool and Sanders will be lost in the depth of the Bucks' frontcourt.

The players who are being dropped are even more interesting to me. Stuckey (4.3 percent!) and Dudley (31.6 percent) are being downgraded by owners for starting off the season on shooting slumps. Both players are locked in as their team's starting point guards and have track records of productivity. Would you drop a position player in baseball who goes 1-for-10 in the first three games of the season? If Stuckey or Dudley were dropped in mid-to-deep sized leagues, they should scooped back up immediately.

Beal and Valanciuanas are both rookies with tons of upside. Anytime you draft a rookie in fantasy sports, you should be aware of the possible growing pains. These two rookies are near the top of their class talent-wise and both are holding starting gigs. Be patient.

Dalembert is a bit more worrisome, as he's averaging a putrid 1.0 points, 2.5 rebounds and 0.5 blocks in just 13 mpg. Over the first two games, Sanders and Ekpe Udoh have outplayed Dalembert. Still, I fully expect Dalembert to separate himself and be the best fantasy option of the trio this season. Bucks coach Scott Skiles named Dalembert the starter for a reason, and the veteran should start getting more run soon. He might not match his career averages, but Dalembert proved last season he could still be an effective player while seeing just 22 mpg.