ROTOWIRE.COM NFL MLB / Minors NBA NHL GOLF RACING    COMMUNITY FORUMS PODCASTS MYROTOWIRE ASK AN EXPERT GAMES

Second Base ADP Trends in the NFBC

In looking at the second base position and its ADP numbers in the NFBC, you might be surprised at the lack of movement we are seeing. That’s not to say that we don’t have plenty of trends to look at for individual players because there are definitely some rising and falling ADP numbers that should be pointed out. However, what I am actually referring to is the order in which the second basemen get drafted. There are a few risers and fallers in the order, but really, not by much.

So with that lack of movement in draft order comes a certain amount of stagnancy at the position. It’s still a bit deeper than it has been in past years but no one is separating themselves as a true riser, like we saw with say Jose Abreu over at first base. Perhaps we still have some movement ahead of us, seeing as how spring games have only just begun, but the likelihood of an extreme move seems unlikely. Sure, we can hope that Tommy La Stella supplants Dan Uggla in Atlanta or maybe that Scooter Gennett shows more in Milwaukee to make us forget about Rickie Weeks and consider him a more appealing option on draft day, but that isn’t happening right now and might not at all this season. Monitoring these situations is important, but given the levels of production we’re looking at, the priority level isn’t all that high on the list.

That being said, let’s take a closer look at the ADP numbers and look at some of the rising and falling trends which could potentially affect your decision-making process come draft day.

Top 40 Second Basemen – ADP Trends

Rank Player Team Current ADP 1 Month Ago Trend
1 Robinson Cano Sea 10.03 11.19 11.57%
2 Jason Kipnis Cle 20.66 22.00 6.49%
3 Dustin Pedroia Bos 31.66 33.72 6.51%
4 Matt Carpenter StL 53.93 48.41 -10.24%
5 Ian Kinsler Det 65.79 66.41 0.94%
6 Ben Zobrist TB 84.37 77.69 -7.92%
7 Jose Altuve Hou 89.87 89.75 -0.13%
8 Jedd Gyorko SD 100.12 102.66 2.54%
9 Brandon Phillips Cin 102.43 104.72 2.24%
10 Daniel Murphy NYM 107.51 101.41 -5.67%
11 Aaron Hill Ari 111.53 112.47 0.84%
12 Chase Utley Phi 144.20 143.88 -0.22%
13 Howie Kendrick LAA 170.46 169.41 -0.62%
14 Jurickson Profar Tex 181.42 174.34 -3.90%
15 Brian Dozier Min 194.79 189.34 -2.80%
16 Neil Walker Pit 220.88 213.59 -3.30%
17 Anthony Rendon Was 230.62 223.75 -2.98%
18 Alex Guerrero LAD 251.22 269.63 7.33%
19 Omar Infante KC 272.17 270.47 -0.62%
20 Kolten Wong StL 276.51 269.44 -2.56%
21 Emilio Bonifacio ChC 307.12 292.63 -4.72%
22 Josh Rutledge Col 315.83 314.66 -0.37%
23 Dustin Ackley Sea 338.34 329.56 -2.60%
24 DJ LeMahieu Col 339.88 356.81 4.98%
25 Scooter Gennett Mil 346.89 337.06 -2.83%
26 Dan Uggla Atl 366.66 366.97 0.08%
27 Nick Franklin Sea 380.46 337.81 -11.21%
28 Marco Scutaro SF 383.72 384.42 0.18%
29 Gordon Beckham CWS 407.32 405.75 -0.39%
30 Brian Roberts NYY 418.74 441.48 5.43%
31 Rickie Weeks Mil 432.06 412.55 -4.52%
32 Rafael Furcal Mia 433.93 452.68 4.32%
33 Jonathan Schoop Bal 499.37 493.77 -1.12%
34 Danny Espinosa Was 516.61 521.10 0.87%
35 Ryan Flaherty Bal 520.04 527.23 1.38%
36 Maicer Izturis Tor 539.14 538.45 -0.13%
37 Jemile Weeks Bal 540.79 550.40 1.78%
38 Tommy La Stella Atl 541.79 534.69 -1.31%
39 Daniel Descalso StL 542.08 530.93 -2.06%
40 Mark Ellis StL 565.25 550.57 -2.60%

Risers

Robinson Cano, SEA (+11.57%) – It’s the largest percentage increase at the position, but obviously only slight movement. It still goes to show you, though, that Cano’s overall value is considered lower based on his move to Seattle. I’m still not convinced that his drop-off in production is going to be as dramatic as many people think, but I’ll happily sit on the wrong side of the fence until this season proves me right or wrong. Should you be drafting in the latter half of the first round, you shouldn’t be afraid to draft him. He’ll slip to you, based on these numbers, but he’s still well worth the first-round pick.

Alex Guerrero, LAD (+7.33%) – We’re only 15 at-bats into the spring, so his .267 average means nothing. I wouldn’t mind seeing him draw a couple of walks, but just three strikeouts aren’t too bad. He still isn’t a player you target, but when it comes to your later rounds, say roughly the 20th, he could be a decent middle infield play with his 12 to 15-home run potential. Unless he suddenly turns it up a few notches and starts busting out some serious power, he shouldn’t rise much higher.

Brian Roberts, NYY (+5.43%) – Don’t shake your head. Yeah, you. Stop it. We all know the injury history of Robert and no one is even remotely saying that you should draft him, but if you’re sitting there at the tail-end of your draft and you’re looking for some depth, then it couldn’t hurt to give him a look. Yankees manager Joe Girardi says that he is sending Roberts out onto the field for every game so long as he is healthy, so you have to figure he’s going to see some decent playing time. Should he stay healthy, well then you just might have a nice, low-cost middle infield option and if he doesn’t, he’s an easy drop and you can simply move on.

Fallers

Nick Franklin, SEA (-11.21%) – The biggest issue for Franklin right now is that the Mariners went and brought in Cano, displacing the youngster from his normal spot at the keystone. He’s being given the opportunity to compete for the starting shortstop job, but Brad Miller did a solid job last year and is the odds-on favorite to win it again this year. The Mariners just might explore a trade which would be best for Franklin, but until that happens, he’s not much of a fantasy option, even at a thin position.

Matt Carpenter, STL (-10.24%) – Last year’s darling was getting some early ADP love, but the doubters have spoken and he continues to see himself fall down the rankings. Most cite the inability to sustain the batting average and the lack of power. Also, the lineup is different, so 120 runs scored might not be as attainable. He’s dropped from an early fourth-round choice to mid to late fifth-rounder which is probably where he’ll hover between now and the start of the season. He still presents a strong value thanks to his position flexibility, so if he continues to fall, you’re still safe grabbing him anywhere below the fourth round.

Ben Zobrist, TB – The power drop-off from last year is a major detractor, but even more so now are the back problems that are keeping him out of the early lineup. There hasn’t been any talk about an MRI or herniated disc or anything that might be considered a major red flag and he did get back onto the field Monday. He’s another whose multi-position eligibility helps to increase his value, but if the power doesn’t come back, he’s barely Martin Prado.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for nearly two decades on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him directly at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com

Comments

By: maineskin
On: 3/5/2014 8:34:00 AM
I honestly do not think Cano will regress in his skill set. The '13 SB were for his contract imo, but losing a +33% LHP HR stadium, a lineup that rivals NYY '13 (I do believe Seager, especially in OBP lgs, is going to leap Donaldson), a bigger park with the dense Sea air and an unquantifiable point, he was just paid. I'm going Kipnis and expecting his Spd/increasing BB% makes up for his BABIP regression. Kipnis is more of a .270 type guy w/his K%.
 

Leave a comment

Commenting is restricted to registered users only. Please register or login now to submit a comment.

Tell Someone

  • Digg it
  • submit to reddit reddit
  • Add to Mixx!

Recent Favorites

What I Think You Should Know About The USMNT
Needless to say, it's been a great World Cup thus far. The USMNT having some success would be awesome.
La-La-La-L.A. Gets Lord Stanley!
Just a few things that caught my eye:
  • Alec Martinez's Cup-winning goal celebration? # priceless. I wonder if he'll ever get his gloves back.
  • Henrik Lundqvist stopped the 50th shot of the game. He couldn't stop the 51st. #connsmythe if the Rangers had found a way to come back in this series.
Do Analytics Take the Fun Out of Sports?
Apparently that was the topic of one of the presentations at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston last week. The presenter, Yale's Edward Tufte, opined:

Don't let people tell you analytics are reductionist and take the joy out of sports. They mostly just take the stupidity out of sports.

Is he right?

RotoWire's AL LABR Squad
The 2014 AL LABR auction went down at the Arizona Republic offices in downtown Phoenix Saturday night. It's a 12-team, 5 x 5, AL-only league with 2 C, 1 1B, 1 2B. 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 CI, 1 MI, 5 OF, 1 U and 9 pitchers. Everyone has $260 to spend.
The Problem With Drafting Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton went for $28 in the NL LABR auction this past weekend. I discussed this with a fellow writer who participates in Tout Wars with me later this month and we discussed the problem with investing heavily into Hamilton.

RSS Feeds