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RotoWire Experts Mock Draft -- An ADP Comparison

On Wednesday, RotoWire’s Derek VanRiper and Kevin Payne hosted a live NFBC-style mock draft during their show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. The group of 15 was comprised of the two show hosts, a handful of guys who play in the NFBC and mock regularly, and a mix of RotoWire staff/interns and XM producers. Yours truly was also in on the action.

Aside from the fact that I have become a mock draft whore and have at least 20 mocks under my belt already, I thought this would be a good opportunity to see how a group of “well-informed industry folk” drafted in relation to the ADP rankings we have been discussing over the last several weeks. Now like I’ve always said, while ADP rankings can be extremely useful when determining who to draft and at which round to draft them, they should be used more as a guideline than the gospel. Sometimes you need to deviate from the plan, depending on what is happening at that particular point in the draft as well as what your specific roster needs are at the time. I don’t recommend swaying too far, but sometimes it can be okay to reach every once in a while. In this draft, however, things got a little crazy.

For the sake of brevity, we’re just going to take a look at the top 120 picks from the draft. You can click here for the full results if you’d like to see the draft in its entirety, but listing all 450 picks for you might be a bit of overkill. Alongside each player’s name, I’ve listed at what pick they were selected, their ADP both from the NFBC and from Mock Draft Central as well as the percentage difference of where they were taken versus their overall ADP rankings. From there it will be easy to see which players were reached for, which ones went right where everyone else is taking them and who slipped through the cracks and fell by more than just a handful of picks. Brace yourself now. This ride is about to get a little bumpy.

Player Pos Team Drafted NFBC ADP Diff MDC ADP Diff
Trout, Mike OF ANA 1 2.07 107.00% 3.25 225.00%
Cabrera, Miguel 3B DET 2 2.18 9.00% 2.02 1.00%
Braun, Ryan OF MIL 3 1.80 -40.00% 1.54 -48.67%
Kemp, Matt OF LA 4 6.13 53.25% 3.93 -1.75%
Cano, Robinson 2B NYY 5 4.51 -9.80% 7.65 53.00%
McCutchen, Andrew OF PIT 6 5.95 -0.83% 5.66 -5.67%
Gonzalez, Carlos OF COL 7 10.98 56.86% 10.63 51.86%
Pujols, Albert 1B ANA 8 7.44 -7.00% 6.51 -18.63%
Bautista, Jose OF TOR 9 19.36 115.11% 9.49 5.44%
Upton, Justin OF ATL 10 22.95 129.50% 12.55 25.50%
Votto, Joey 1B CIN 11 8.16 -25.82% 10.26 -6.73%
Fielder, Prince 1B DET 12 10.55 -12.08% 13.46 12.17%
Stanton, Giancarlo OF MIA 13 15.89 22.23% 19.76 52.00%
Posey, Buster C SF 14 14.00 0.00% 13.55 -3.21%
Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL 15 16.55 10.33% 19.44 29.60%
Strasburg, Stephen SP WAS 16 13.56 -15.25% 35.4 121.25%
Beltre, Adrian 3B TEX 17 20.65 21.47% 17.38 2.24%
Kershaw, Clayton SP LA 18 16.44 -8.67% 19.27 7.06%
Harper, Bryce OF WAS 19 32.40 70.53% 16.47 -13.32%
Verlander, Justin SP DET 20 14.24 -28.80% 25.74 28.70%
Hamilton, Josh OF ANA 21 12.53 -40.33% 22.75 8.33%
Longoria, Evan 3B TB 22 20.82 -5.36% 30.02 36.45%
Reyes, Jose SS TOR 23 22.11 -3.87% 38.69 68.22%
Ramirez, Hanley SS LA 24 19.25 -19.79% 35.46 47.75%
Price, David SP TB 25 28.89 15.56% 43.43 73.72%
Wright, David 3B NYM 26 24.56 -5.54% 27.29 4.96%
Granderson, Curtis OF NYY 27 40.00 48.15% 12.59 -53.37%
Kinsler, Ian 2B TEX 28 30.56 9.14% 38.52 37.57%
Heyward, Jason OF ATL 29 28.25 -2.59% 36.11 24.52%
Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS 30 25.96 -13.47% 39.32 31.07%
Encarnacion, Edwin 1B TOR 31 27.33 -11.84% 25.08 -19.10%
Castro, Starlin SS CHC 32 37.00 15.63% 37.39 16.84%
Ellsbury, Jacoby OF BOS 33 33.65 1.97% 46.5 40.91%
Craig, Allen 1B STL 34 53.04 56.00% 36.38 7.00%
Cespedes, Yoenis OF OAK 35 42.98 22.80% 48.09 37.40%
Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS 36 33.71 -6.36% 42.49 18.03%
Gonzalez, Adrian 1B LA 37 32.60 -11.89% 30.93 -16.41%
Holliday, Matt OF STL 38 45.87 20.71% 52.58 38.37%
Bruce, Jay OF CIN 39 44.36 13.74% 28.66 -26.51%
Hernandez, Felix SP SEA 40 35.84 -10.40% 50.26 25.65%
Goldschmidt, Paul 1B ARI 41 52.85 28.90% 22 -46.34%
Jones, Adam OF BAL 42 31.18 -25.76% 24.08 -42.67%
Butler, Billy 1B KC 43 45.16 5.02% 37.99 -11.65%
Molina, Yadier C STL 44 70.42 60.05% 39.76 -9.64%
Ramirez, Aramis 3B MIL 45 44.07 -2.07% 40.75 -9.44%
Kimbrel, Craig RP ATL 46 47.76 3.83% 31.11 -32.37%
Hill, Aaron 2B ARI 47 57.16 21.62% 75.8 61.28%
Upton, B.J. OF ATL 48 43.44 -9.50% 24.05 -49.90%
Kipnis, Jason 2B CLE 49 61.45 25.41% 51.2 4.49%
Lee, Cliff SP PHI 50 51.65 3.30% 41.29 -17.42%
Headley, Chase 3B SD 51 37.55 -26.37% 43.17 -15.35%
Wieters, Matt C BAL 52 79.15 52.21% 55.83 7.37%
Hamels, Cole SP PHI 53 42.38 -20.04% 52.43 -1.08%
Santana, Carlos C CLE 54 65.47 21.24% 51.06 -5.44%
Freeman, Freddie 1B ATL 55 82.82 50.58% 59.83 8.78%
Cain, Matt SP SF 56 43.75 -21.88% 66.96 19.57%
Lawrie, Brett 3B TOR 57 69.04 21.12% 64.31 12.82%
Darvish, Yu SP TEX 58 64.45 11.12% 60.81 4.84%
Zobrist, Ben 2B TB 59 49.13 -16.73% 67.04 13.63%
Desmond, Ian SS WAS 60 44.35 -26.08% 94.04 56.73%
Rosario, Wilin C COL 61 80.60 32.13% 76.55 25.49%
Jennings, Desmond OF TB 62 70.91 14.37% 81.83 31.98%
Wainwright, Adam SP STL 63 73.96 17.40% 74 17.46%
Weaver, Jered SP ANA 64 52.82 -17.47% 57.07 -10.83%
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI 65 54.33 -16.42% 102.42 57.57%
Cabrera, Asdrubal SS CLE 66 97.53 47.77% 127.4 93.03%
Sandoval, Pablo 3B SF 67 83.58 24.75% 115.27 72.04%
Choo, Shin-Soo OF CIN 68 77.15 13.46% 77.86 14.50%
Medlen, Kris SP ATL 69 75.56 9.51% 81.09 17.52%
Trumbo, Mark OF ANA 70 99.04 41.49% 67.55 -3.50%
Mauer, Joe C MIN 71 58.62 -17.44% 56.95 -19.79%
Halladay, Roy SP PHI 72 87.58 21.64% 92.9 29.03%
Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN 73 63.45 -13.08% 77.85 6.64%
Konerko, Paul 1B CHW 74 120.02 62.19% 69.8 -5.68%
Teixeira, Mark 1B NYY 75 63.42 -15.44% 48.01 -35.99%
Gordon, Alex OF KC 76 93.67 23.25% 63.8 -16.05%
Shields, James SP KC 77 77.87 1.13% 78.18 1.53%
Sabathia, CC SP NYY 78 73.16 -6.21% 98.92 26.82%
Andrus, Elvis SS TEX 79 82.73 4.72% 130.22 64.84%
Bourn, Michael OF CLE 80 81.04 1.30% 71.81 -10.24%
Bumgarner, Madison SP SF 81 60.29 -25.57% 77.1 -4.81%
Hosmer, Eric 1B KC 82 98.49 20.11% 91.65 11.77%
Jackson, Austin OF DET 83 101.67 22.49% 102.02 22.92%
Gonzalez, Gio SP WAS 84 52.31 -37.73% 82.71 -1.54%
Montero, Jesus C SEA 85 118.36 39.25% 91.94 8.16%
Martinez, Victor C DET 86 77.47 -9.92% 108.61 26.29%
Espinosa, Danny 2B WAS 87 135.76 56.05% 105.7 21.49%
Rizzo, Anthony 1B CHC 88 98.07 11.44% 50.57 -42.53%
Greinke, Zack SP LA 89 55.60 -37.53% 89.2 0.22%
Crawford, Carl OF LA 90 125.56 39.51% 125.31 39.23%
Scherzer, Max SP DET 91 78.60 -13.63% 102.95 13.13%
Sale, Chris SP CHW 92 69.91 -24.01% 92.72 0.78%
Dickey, R.A. SP TOR 93 64.27 -30.89% 91.4 -1.72%
Montero, Miguel C ARI 94 96.96 3.15% 61.75 -34.31%
Rios, Alex OF CHW 95 67.64 -28.80% 81.13 -14.60%
Beltran, Carlos OF STL 96 116.15 20.99% 112.81 17.51%
Pence, Hunter OF SF 97 105.82 9.09% 97.28 0.29%
Moore, Matt SP TB 98 99.18 1.20% 136.51 39.30%
Zimmermann, Jordan SP WAS 99 91.11 -7.97% 116.15 17.32%
Altuve, Jose 2B HOU 100 94.58 -5.42% 99.7 -0.30%
Cabrera, Melky OF TOR 101 119.36 18.18% 81.23 -19.57%
Morrow, Brandon SP TOR 102 122.44 20.04% 139.44 36.71%
Escobar, Alcides SS KC 103 155.15 50.63% 214.16 107.92%
Cueto, Johnny SP CIN 104 89.04 -14.38% 110.03 5.80%
Davis, Ike 1B NYM 105 124.91 18.96% 87.18 -16.97%
Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL 106 108.05 1.93% 151.22 42.66%
Cruz, Nelson OF TEX 107 107.56 0.52% 97.36 -9.01%
Gomez, Carlos OF MIL 108 125.25 15.97% 216.11 100.10%
Middlebrooks, Will 3B BOS 109 112.93 3.61% 150.63 38.19%
Seager, Kyle 3B SEA 110 160.91 46.28% 130.11 18.28%
Motte, Jason RP STL 111 97.42 -12.23% 77.82 -29.89%
Maybin, Cameron OF SD 112 220.58 96.95% 146.9 31.16%
Prado, Martin OF ARI 113 105.71 -6.45% 148.19 31.14%
Gallardo, Yovani SP MIL 114 89.73 -21.29% 116.91 2.55%
Vogelsong, Ryan SP SF 115 223.67 94.50% 167.55 45.70%
Latos, Mat SP CIN 116 91.11 -21.46% 123.23 6.23%
Wilson, C.J. SP ANA 117 143.16 22.36% 151.41 29.41%
Rutledge, Josh SS COL 118 161.31 36.70% 227.01 92.38%
Perez, Salvador C KC 119 105.91 -11.00% 138.32 16.24%
Chapman, Aroldis SP CIN 120 83.55 -30.38% 133.03 10.86%

RotoWire Draft vs NFBC ADP

Assuming that any draft done with the exact same specifications of the NFBC would result in minimal ADP deviations, technically, shouldn’t be too far-fetched. However, at any given moment, any owner…or in this case owners…can stray from the path and put the entire draft into a dizzying free-for-all and ADP just goes completely out the window. While you’d like that to not be the case, you have to be able to roll with the punches. Here’s a look at some of the places where the typical path was abandoned and an alternate draft reality became truth.

Too Soon?

Jose Bautista and Justin Upton go 9th and 10th overall – Normally left to the middle of the second round, both outfielders jumped a minimum of 10 picks and went ahead of first round regulars such as Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Buster Posey and Stephen Strasburg. Leapfrogging a pitcher or a catcher, in my opinion, is no big deal, but even though most consider first base to be incredibly deep, it was a surprise to me to see them go over two of the biggest and most consistent power hitters in the game. However, if you look at their ADPs over at MDC, the picks seem to coincide with what the masses are thinking.

Bryce Harper goes 19th overall – Again, the pick jibes with what the masses are thinking, but according to most NFBC mockers, he’s an early third round selection. He’s a true talent, no question, but in a non-keeper league, is his current rate of production worthy of such a high selection? Perhaps the sight of him on the cover of this week’s Sports Illustrated had him too fresh in everyone’s mind.

Allen Craig gets taken with the 34th pick – Most in the NFBC have the sense to at least take him 20-odd picks later, but in this one, well….the owner may have been the mayor of Reach City. I think I’ve said my peace on Craig over the last few weeks. No reason to beat a dead horse.

Yadier Molina and Matt Wieters go 44th and 52nd, respectively – While the picks are popular ones at MDC, they are definite reaches in the NFBC and I have to agree. The depth found at catcher this year is plentiful and while these guys are talented, the position presents too many risks to be using picks this high.

Paul Konerko goes 74th – Is an aging Konerko, who has had recurring back problems over the last few years, that much better an option than looking for the upside of a potential power hitter like Anthony Rizzo? People in the NFBC don’t think so as this pick looks like a 45-pick reach. Personally, if I couldn’t get Rizzo in the following round, I’d be happy to wait the next four or five and grab a comparable Adam LaRoche.

Cameron Maybin taken with 112th pick (8th round) – A stunner here. While I like Maybin’s skill set, this pick, comparatively, comes more than 100 picks too soon in the NFBC and is even a 35-pick reach according to MDC standards. This one could have waited at least another half dozen rounds.

Too Far?

Josh Hamilton drops to the 21st pick – While this pick coincides with the one at MDC, he’s fallen from a late first round pick by NFBC standards to a somewhat forced mid-second rounder. The ballpark change shouldn’t be a factor, especially if you’ve studied his home/road splits, but obviously, the injuries are a concern.

Ian Desmond falls to the 60th pick – Here’s an interesting one actually as Desmond is a popular choice in the NFBC as most believe in his breakout season from last year but falls nearly 20 picks in this draft which is surprising given the lack of depth at the position. What’s interesting here is his lack of popularity amongst the masses as this pick is more than 30 picks ahead of where he’s going at MDC. I see him settling somewhere in the middle on both sites as people will almost be forced to believe in last season’s totals due to a lack of better options.

2nd/3rd Tier Starters Drop 20-30 picks – Between picks 81 and 93, four starters – Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Chris Sale and R.A. Dickey – all came off the board, but like most industry people, the owners in this draft waited on pitching. By the end of the 5th round, four teams were still without a starter while nine of the remaining 11 had just one. While you’d think it would be a good idea to go against the grain and build up your rotation, the depth of the league and the lack of starters taken sort of prevent you from doing that.

Quick Notes from the MDC Side

Will the masses ever side with the NFBC players with regard to Stephen Strasburg? You’ve got one group that has enough faith to make him a late first round selection while the rest are thinking early third. As much as I like him and his potential, I still think I’d have to side with the MDC crowd even if I were taking a pitching-heavy approach.

While I think a first round selection might be pushing it a bit, I like the MDC view that the power and speed of Curtis Granderson certainly trumps the negatives of his batting average. 40 home runs is not an easy feat and the dimensions of Yankee Stadium have helped him maintain that total for two straight years. A third straight season seems very likely here.

Paul Goldschmidt got absolutely no respect in this draft, comparatively speaking, while Aaron Hill may have gotten a little too much. Goldy may be going too high at MDC, but you don't want to sleep on him this year. And while Hill is a soli dchoice at second, just make sure you're not reaching too high.

At the 66th pick, Asdrubal Cabrera was a huge overshoot. And it’s not just with MDC as he was an overshoot according to NFBC standards as well.

And finally, there’s far too much love in this draft for Alcides Escobar, Carlos Gomez and Josh Rutledge. All three have been trendy selections this offseason, but don’t get too caught up in the hype. Let someone else do the reaching.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for more detailed questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

Comments

By: msarvi
On: 2/21/2013 6:46:00 AM
While you can argue that There are some players that should be picked before J. Upton and Bautista, its hard to argue that they were picked too early because if you like those guys, they would not be around when the pick comes bad. To me the only time you are reaching for a player is when it is almost certain that player would be there when you pick next.

A technical question I have is on the MDC ADPs. My experience is that many of those drafts have a high percentage of picks selected by the default setting (Auto picks or absent/vacant drafters). Since those are ranked by the Rotowire rankings, aren't they skewed? Or do you have a way of only counting drafts with a high participation rate? Are the NFBC ADP numbers from the actual drafts for pay leagues or from NFBC mock drafts?
 
By: MaineSkin
On: 2/21/2013 8:32:00 PM
MDC only counts mocks that have a certain amount of real owner selection. Don't know about others, but I believe the NFBC is the paid leagues.
 
By: landfallnav
On: 3/2/2013 6:23:00 AM
THe link int the article "You can click here for the full results if you’d like to see the draft in its entirety" is broken.
 

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