Relief Pitcher/Closer ADP Trends

• By: Howard Bender
• On: 2/3/2012 1:14:00 PM

Related: Howard Bender 


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What stands out the most when examining the ADP trends for relievers and closers is that the overall opinion of their fantasy usefulness is not very high.  The position can be extremely volatile throughout the season and when people view the players merely as single-category contributors, it drags down their value.  However, if you understand that having a premier closer or two on your team can also boost your ratios and strikeouts as well as help you in saves, then you will be able to use these trends to your advantage.  If the demand is low, then so is the cost, and that can certainly be beneficial when drafting.

Top 40 Relievers/Closers

	Current ADP	Change	1 Week Ago	Change	2 Weeks Ago	Overall Trend
Craig Kimbrel	60.13	0.5%	60.45	-5.9%	56.88	-5.4%
Drew Storen	82.73	-0.6%	82.25	-1.6%	80.91	-2.2%
John Axford	92.01	-0.7%	91.37	-4.7%	87.04	-5.4%
Mariano Rivera	98.24	0.3%	98.49	5.9%	104.26	6.1%
Jonathan Papelbon	104.23	-0.4%	103.84	-1.8%	101.95	-2.2%
Brian Wilson	114.46	-0.9%	113.41	5.4%	119.59	4.5%
Jose Valverde	123.24	0.2%	123.49	7.2%	132.39	7.4%
Heath Bell	127.51	0.6%	128.24	8.8%	139.51	9.4%
Joel Hanrahan	129.61	0.0%	129.67	3.2%	133.76	3.2%
J.J. Putz	137.10	0.0%	137.12	2.5%	140.50	2.5%
Ryan Madson	144.58	0.4%	145.16	-1.0%	143.76	-0.6%
Andrew Bailey	156.70	1.0%	158.23	5.2%	166.52	6.3%
Neftali Feliz	157.39	1.0%	158.93	7.3%	170.61	8.4%
Jordan Walden	158.14	0.9%	159.57	5.6%	168.51	6.6%
Carlos Marmol	164.67	0.5%	165.46	2.9%	170.25	3.4%
Joakim Soria	170.41	-0.1%	170.25	5.1%	178.96	5.0%
Sergio Santos	172.72	0.8%	174.18	1.8%	177.24	2.6%
Kenley Jansen	179.75	1.8%	182.97	-5.5%	172.84	-3.8%
Brandon League	181.99	2.3%	186.24	-6.6%	173.86	-4.5%
Joe Nathan	185.07	-0.1%	184.83	-0.3%	184.20	-0.5%
Jason Motte	187.47	0.0%	187.50	-2.7%	182.53	-2.6%
Huston Street	188.12	0.0%	188.13	-0.8%	186.61	-0.8%
Chris Perez	192.80	0.4%	193.61	1.8%	197.15	2.3%
Rafael Betancourt	200.12	1.3%	202.63	-3.0%	196.58	-1.8%
Sergio Romo	214.84	-0.6%	213.55	31.2%	280.21	30.4%
Juan Carlos Oviedo**	215.86	7.8%	232.65	2.7%	238.85	10.7%
Kyle Farnsworth	221.38	0.7%	222.85	0.3%	223.42	0.9%
Francisco Rodriguez	223.23	-0.5%	222.04	-0.5%	220.83	-1.1%
David Robertson	225.96	0.0%	225.95	-1.1%	223.40	-1.1%
Matt Thornton	226.06	-1.7%	222.31	-0.2%	221.87	-1.9%
Jonny Venters	227.44	0.0%	227.49	-0.9%	225.50	-0.9%
Mike Adams	228.84	0.5%	229.98	-1.9%	225.50	-1.5%
Francisco Cordero	229.15	1.0%	231.42	-1.9%	227.07	-0.9%
Chris Sale	229.68	-0.4%	228.73	-1.2%	225.93	-1.6%
Mark Melancon	229.83	-0.4%	228.92	-1.6%	225.15	-2.0%
Frank Francisco	231.03	0.6%	232.43	-0.1%	232.13	0.5%
Javy Guerra	231.44	-0.3%	230.72	-1.5%	227.15	-1.9%
Tyler Clippard	231.74	0.8%	233.69	-0.3%	233.07	0.6%
Aroldis Chapman	232.06	0.0%	232.08	-1.9%	227.74	-1.9%
Fernando Salas	232.52	-0.2%	231.96	-1.1%	229.39	-1.3%

While the Overall Trends seem to be all over the place, in that there is a strong mix of both risers and fallers, the key column to look at right now is the change over this past week.  We’ve added almost 150 more drafts worth of data in the past week and seeing the miniscule levels of fluctuation, it appears as if the position is stabilizing in drafts.  It would seem that only the biggest of news, whether it’s an injury or a job actually changing hands, would cause any of the players listed to see any significant ADP movement.

He might be trending downward lately, but Craig Kimbrel is holding steady as the number one most coveted reliever.  His K/9 was an unbelievable 14.84 and he had an equally tasty 3.97 K/BB ratio.  His 127 strikeouts put him 72nd overall in 2011 and that’s of all pitchers.  Do you know how many starters he topped with that total?  Couple that with a 2.10 ERA in 77 innings of work and 46 saves and you’ve got an outstanding contributor to your fantasy rotation.  Depending on the size of your league, he’s going in the 5th or 6th round, so if you want him, he’s comes at a pretty appropriate cost.

The interesting thing that comes next is the significant gap in picks between Kimbrel and Drew Storen; 22 to be precise.  And then it’s still another 10-12 picks after that to get top notch relievers like Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon.  Closers like Rivera (+6.1%), Brian Wilson (+4.5%), Heath Bell (+9.4%), and Jose Valverde (+7.4%) – players with the job locked down with almost zero competition, barring injury of course – might be trending upwards and can close the gap somewhat, but the change won’t be that significant in the long run.  You can still expect to land them somewhere between the 8th and 10th round which should be a steal.

Several upward trends to notice around the 11th and 12th rounds as well as late on in the 17th and 18th.  Those seem to be the bigger runs for relievers, so if you don’t grab yourself a top option earlier, that’s where you should start looking.  They’re going to come off the board fast once you hit those rounds.

Neftali Feliz should be an interesting one to watch in the coming weeks.  His ADP is up 8.4% and it’s likely due to the fact  that you’ll be able to use him in your RP slot even though he’s slated to join  the Rangers’ rotation this year.  With Joe Nathan signed, Feliz shouldn’t be called upon to return to the closer’s role, so expect to see him start trending up even more once pitchers and catchers report.  Same goes for Chicago's Chris Sale.

It’s somewhat surprising to see Kenley Jansen, not only the 19th reliever off the board, but that he’s going before numerous guys that have already been tabbed as the team’s closer, including Javy Guerra, the player whom Jansen should be setting up this season.  Not only that, but he’s also trending upwards in the past week (+1.8%) after dropping the week before.  Either more leagues that count holds have begun drafting or no one has any confidence in Guerra holding down the job.

**Juan Carlos Oviedo is the former closer formerly known as Leo Nunez.  He’s seen a surprising upward trend of +10.7% over the last two weeks, but word is out that he likely won’t start the season with the team due to legal issues stemming from falsifying his identity.  You can probably expect to see him drop until the issue is worked out and people start realizing that just because Bell’s K/9 dropped so much last season, he’s still not losing his job.

Remember, downward trends for some guys can be quite beneficial to you if you believe in a particular player.  Relievers like Mark Melancon (-2.0%), Mike Adams (-1.2%), and even Jonny Venters (-0.9%) are all closers-in-waiting, so they should be great bargains if you’re looking to do relievers even more on the cheap.
 
The Biggest Riser:  Sergio Romo, SF (+30.4%) – Again, perhaps more leagues that count holds are drafting as this is roughly a 65 pick increase (5 rounds), or no one has much faith in Wilson’s elbow holding up this year.  With such a strong K-rate, he might be a nice value pick to stash, especially if you believe Wilson could miss some time with injury (which I do), but not as the 26th reliever off the board (unless holds is a category).  Still plenty of legit closers behind him on the list.

The Biggest Faller:  John Axford, MIL (-5.4%) --  The overall trend is actually tied with Kimbrel, but Axford has taken a slight drop over the last two weeks while Kimbrel actually jumped a bit.  This movement though is very negligible and is likely just a matter of preference over the span of about two or three picks.

Relievers to watch who failed to make the Top 40, but should see an upward trend in the coming weeks include:  Addison Reed, CHW, Matt Capps, MIN, Brandon Lyon, HOU, Rex Brothers, COL, and Luke Gregersen, SD

Super Sleeper for your radar:  Brad Brach, SD    

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire, FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz.  You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.