Redemption of Gasol and Odom?

• By: The Professor
• On: 6/9/2009 12:17:00 PM

Related: The Professor 


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I was reading an article today by Britt Robson, who does an excellent job covering the Timberwolves with an extremely interesting and in-depth analytical style.  During the postseason he often breaks down the big games, and he is doing so with the NBA Finals.  He leads off today's article with a section titled "Redemption for Gasol and Odom", and goes on to detail how Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom were keys to the Lakers Game 2 win.  He points out how it was they, and not Andrew Bynum, that played the best defense on Dwight Howard.  He points out that they shot efficiently, made good passes, and crashed the boards and that those things were vital to the Lakers' win.  But Robson begins this section by describing the commonly held notion that it was Gasol and Odom coming up short that led to the Lakers' defeat last season, and thus they have some need to redeem themselves this year.  I question that assertion, though.  Not that it exists, as clearly many people believe this, but I question whether it is accurate that Gasol and Odom disappeared on the big stage last year.  Let me make my case:

In the last two conference and NBA Finals, the Lakers have had to face teams led by Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard.  Those are arguably the three best big men in the NBA, and without a doubt they are three of the best defender/rebounders of this or any other era.  All three are also strong on offense, leading their respective teams in postseason scoring before facing the Lakers.  Yet all three struggled mightily against defensive frontlines led by Gasol and Odom.  Duncan shot 42.6% from the field in last year's conference finals, Garnett shot 42.9% in last year's NBA Finals, and this year Howard is shooting 37.5% through two games of the Finals. 

On the other end of the court, yes, Gasol's and Odom's scoring has been down a bit.  But again, they are facing some of the best defenders in NBA history.  Despite that, in those three series Gasol has averaged 15 points, 10 boards, three assists, and shot 50% from the field on 12 shots/game.  Meanwhile, Odom has averaged 14 points, 10 boards, three assists, and shot 49% from the field on 10 shots/game. 

There are two general ways to judge the "toughness" of big men: defense and rebounds.  Gasol and Odom have played great defense against three of the best, and each has crashed the boards well.  Likewise, both have scored efficiently from the field and passed very well in both years.  The only number that was down is Gasol's scoring, but even that is within reason when you consider the number of shots that he got.  Thus, I have to question...why exactly are Gasol and Odom held up as the reason for why the Lakers failed to win the title last season?  Why are they in need of redemption, and why is their performance thus far this year considered any different than last year?  Could it not just be that the Celtics team was just better than the Lakers last year, and not due to perceived "softness" in Gasol and Odom?  Likewise, perhaps this year the Lakers as a team are just better than the Magic (at least so far).  To me, there was a bit of perception bias surrounding last year's Finals that continues on to today.  The logic exercise that I think many unconsciously undertook looked like this:

Given: Kobe Bryant is the best player in the NBA. 
Theory: The Lakers' overall team had as much talent as any team in the NBA. 
Results: The Celtics beat the Lakers conclusively. 
Conclusion:  Since Kobe is the best is a given, he could not have lost if his team was as talented as the Celtics.  Therefore it must have been the supporting cast that came up short, with Gasol and Odom as the fall guys.

In reality, I think this whole premise is a bit faulty.  Gasol and Odom were not able to win the series for the Lakers last year, but they are not the reason that they lost.  Likewise, their performance this year thus far isn't a redemption, it is simply more of the same.  I think that the reason that the Lakers are up 2 - 0 instead of down 2 - 0 has much more to do with the opponent than anything else.  And if there has to be a fall-guy on the Lakers for last year's Finals results, you might need to look elsewhere beyone Gasol and Odom to pin that blame.