Recent Outfielder ADP Trends
Early on last week, we were wrapping up another position-by-position ADP analysis until we got sidetracked by a quick ADP study of a draft done by the recently created Mock Draft Army. Now mind you, it was a good interruption and one I think a lot of people got something out of, for sure. And if you haven’t gotten into one of the Army’s mocks, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@rotobuzzguy) and stay tuned for more updates. Everyone who has participated has walked away with a very positive experience. But I digress, yet again. So let’s get back to the task at hand and let’s look at some of the most recent ADP trends we’ve seen amongst the outfielders.
The most interesting thing I see with the outfielders is that no matter how deep you may think the position is, it gets real thin, real quick. That is, of course, if you play in a real shallow league that requires you start no more than three. However, in most leagues, like the NFBC for example, you start five outfielders and in some you start six. Now obviously the player pool for outfielders runs fairly deep, but if you take into account that 26-percent of the first 100 picks are outfielders, you can see how the pool gets pretty shallow afterwards. Even more telling is that 17 of the first 45 picks (three rounds), according to NFBC ADP, are outfielders. It’s not that you’ll end up with the worst outfield if you don’t invest early, but chances are you’ll have a couple of holes to fill later on if you leave the position for later.
So with that, let’s take a look at some of the recent trends and how some of the ADP numbers from the NFBC stack up against those from Mock Draft Central…
|Rank||Player||Team||Current ADP||1 Week Ago||Trend||MDC ADP||%Diff|
|49||Alejandro De Aza||CWS||195.09||196.15||0.54%||147.80||24.24%|
Leonys Martin (+3.88%) – While the percentage jump doesn’t appear to be big, it amounts to just over 13 picks which is almost a full-round jump. He’s been impressing at camp this spring and manager Ron Washington has, more or less, endorsed him as the Rangers starting center fielder for the time being. Of course, there’s not much competition in camp either so it hasn’t been the toughest position battle we’ve seen. Martin has a little bit of pop and a little bit of speed, but overall, it’s tough to see him having any kind of a serious impact to your roster.
Domonic Brown (+3.83%) – His increase is a full round and, truth be told, he could prove to be a tremendous bargain given his ADP numbers. This should be his first full season in the bigs and if he lives up to the potential we were all expecting from him a few years ago, owners will be very happy they used a late-round selection on the once highly-touted prospect. His ceiling looks to be 15-20 home runs with 10-15 stolen bases and it’s hard to imagine anyone being disappointed with those totals.
Oscar Taveras (+3.34) – Roughly a 10-pick climb for what appears to be the top outfield prospect right now. Despite not having a job in the majors, Taveras is being jumped on by numerous owners with the hopes of seeing the young power hitter get his first run at some point this season. Several things need to happen, such as a rash of injuries in the outfield, a depleted bench and an impressive performance at the Triple-A level, but it wouldn’t be the craziest thing to see all of that actually come to fruition. He’s probably more of a second half guy for this year, but keeper league owners will want to grab and stash now while they can.
Aaron Hicks (+2.86%) – The little-known Hicks has jumped almost a full round thanks to a three-homer game this spring this past week and is likely to continue trending upwards. Though he hasn’t played above the Double-A level after five seasons in the minors, he is the front-runner for the starting center field job in Minnesota right now. GM Terry Ryan says that the arbitration clock will have nothing to do with where Hicks opens the season, so if that’s true, he should be edging out Darin Mastroianni soon enough. His power is modest, but scouts say he has plus-speed and that he’s got the potential to swipe 30 bags with a full season in the bigs. We’ll just wait to see if he gets there and if he does, how soon it will be.
For the most part, there aren’t too many players who are seeing any kind of a significant drop in ADP recently; at least not amongst those mocking for the NFBC. While you’d like to see more guys slipping to better bargain spots, a lack of movement usually makes drafting a little easier as you get a better idea as to where it is you should be looking for a particular group of players. But, obviously there are a few who are sliding and might need a mention here.
Curtis Granderson (-12.57%) – The percentage drop might look big, but it’s actually only about a half-dozen picks right now and that’s nothing compared to the drop he’s seen over at Mock Draft Central (we’ll hit on that soon enough). A broken arm has him out until roughly the end of May, so he’ll still have two-thirds of the season to help with your power totals. Of course, should the arm injury sap his power, which it very well might, then no matter how short the porch in right field is at Yankee Stadium, he’s going to have trouble reaching that 30-home run barrier.
Carl Crawford (-5.34%) – Crawford seems to be slipping close to a half a round lately thanks to being shut down for a week after experiencing forearm soreness. He took 50 swings off a practice tee Monday, but there’s a good chance he just levels off where he is in the ADP world as he becomes a bit more of a risk with even just these minor injury reports. Obviously there’s potential upside with Crawford and there’s always hope that he reverts back to his old ways, but injuries have ravaged the latter part of his career and it’s a little too tough to bet on a guy like that.
Delmon Young (-2.79%) – He’s recovering fairly well from the ankle injury, but with reports that he won’t be back until mid-April, he’s still dropping in the ADP ranks. He’s not dropping by much, but based on his rank, it amounts to roughly half a round. He’s supposedly going to be the regular right fielder once he returns, so should he have his head on straight this year, he could prove to be a solid late-round selection.
Curtis Granderson – Injury has him dropping like a hot rock to most. Could be a nice bargain if you can stash him in a DL spot.
Carlos Gomez – Do the masses not know who he is or is his placement in the default rankings keeping him low on the ADP trail? Could be a great power/speed combo if he can build on last year’s second half.
Josh Hamilton – While those in the NFBC believe in his power as an Angel, the masses at MDC do not. Perhaps it’s the injury concern as well.
Martin Prado --- There’s over a 40-pickj differential here which is surprising. Sure, he doesn’t hit for big power but he’s got outstanding position eligibility.
Giancarlo Stanton – First round choice in the NFBC, mid-second at MDC. Some think thathe’ll be pitched around all year, but if the Marlins are that bad and falling behind early, then pitchers won’t about throwing to him.
Jose Bautista – The opposite of Stanton actually as he’s a mid-second-rounder in the NFBC but those at MDC love him to the point of a late-first round selection.
Torii Hunter – The move to Detroit and an unusually high BABIP last year are keeping his value down in the NFBC, but MDC drafters are loving him still.
Alfonso Soriano – He’s going about 100 picks higher at MDC and it’s hard to imagine why so many at the NFBC are down on him. His average isn’t very good, but he still has solid 25-30 home run power which is somewhat at a premium these days. Unless of course they think he’ll be dealt to team that will use him in more of a platoon situation.
Angel Pagan – He’s going about 60 picks higher at MDC which begs the question of which ADP rank suits him better. While he’s been relatively stable over the last couple of seasons, he is getting up there in age and some are probably wondering when the speed will decline.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at firstname.lastname@example.org.