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Recent First Base ADP Trends

Just as we did earlier in the month, we’re looking at each position and its ADP trends separately so you have a better idea as to where you should be looking for certain players and should you miss out on the ones up top, how long you can wait before filling that spot. Today we’re covering one of the deepest positions in fantasy baseball, likely the deepest among the position players – first base. You’ve got your big-time sluggers here and even if you miss out on that first-round group that comes off the board so quickly, the guys in the middle can be just as potent. Heck, even some of the guys near the bottom of the list could surprise you.

So let’s start off with a look at the top 50 first basemen. As we did with the catchers, we are looking at the ADP trends within NFBC mock drafts and then afterwards, comparing those rankings to what we have on Mock Draft Central. The pace is picking up on MDC so soon enough we will just be heading over there full-time, but for now, the NFBC data seems to be as accurate as it is plentiful.

Rank Player Team Current ADP 1 Week Ago Trend MDC ADP %Diff
1 Albert Pujols LAA 7.25 8.55 17.93% 6.59 9.10%
2 Joey Votto Cin 8.20 9.78 19.27% 10.52 -28.29%
3 Prince Fielder Det 10.17 12.96 27.43% 13.04 -28.22%
4 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 27.78 27.92 0.50% 23.83 14.22%
5 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 33.46 35.86 7.17% 29.94 10.52%
6 Billy Buttler KC 44.87 45.16 0.65% 36.08 19.59%
7 Paul Goldschmidt Ari 51.17 52.25 2.11% 20.92 59.12%
8 Allen Craig StL 52.10 51.92 -0.35% 35.48 31.90%
9 Mark Teixeira NYY 64.81 66.92 3.26% 46.24 28.65%
10 Freddie Freeman Atl 81.33 83.24 2.35% 59.34 27.04%
11 Anthony Rizzo ChC 98.16 97.45 -0.72% 49.42 49.65%
12 Eric Hosmer KC 98.77 97.37 -1.42% 92.97 5.87%
13 Mike Napoli Bos 105.25 108.96 3.52% 67.00 36.34%
14 Corey Hart Mil 114.12 110.82 -2.89% 206.96 -81.35%
15 Ryan Howard Phi 116.59 119.04 2.10% 71.35 38.80%
16 Paul Konerko CWS 119.43 124.57 4.30% 71.56 40.08%
17 Ike Davis NYM 121.87 124.69 2.31% 91.01 25.32%
18 Adam LaRoche Was 124.91 128.78 3.10% 114.01 8.73%
19 Chris Davis Bal 127.06 126.10 -0.76% 95.80 24.60%
20 Kendrys Morales Sea 134.19 134.45 0.19% 150.58 -12.21%
21 Adam Dunn ChW 164.87 166.92 1.24% 159.35 3.35%
22 Justin Morneau Min 190.74 197.57 3.58% 195.52 -2.51%
23 Garrett Jones Pit 238.58 237.02 -0.65% 233.63 2.07%
24 Brandon Belt SF 241.97 237.88 -1.69% 263.86 -9.05%
25 Yonder Alonso SD 258.51 256.33 -0.84% 245.30 5.11%
26 Brandon Moss Oak 287.90 295.82 2.75% 196.55 31.73%
27 Mark Reynolds Cle 288.56 289.22 0.23% 200.31 30.58%
28 Lance Berkman Tex 297.75 319.75 7.39% 231.31 22.31%
29 Adam Lind Tor 301.88 303.92 0.68% 275.04 8.89%
30 Matt Carpenter StL 312.00 314.44 0.78% ND  
31 Mitch Moreland Tex 323.51 324.61 0.34% 290.55 10.19%
32 Chris Carter Hou 374.69 394.72 5.35% 252.58 32.59%
33 Mike Olt Tex 379.11 382.14 0.80% ND  
34 Justin Smoak Sea 384.29 389.46 1.35% 291.59 24.12%
35 Chris Parmelee Min 392.59 397.74 1.31% ND  
36 Brett Wallace Hou 420.68 426.59 1.40% ND  
37 Carlos Pena Hou 430.36 434.08 0.86% 302.96 29.60%
38 James Loney TB 442.97 439.08 -0.88% ND  
39 Mat Gamel Mil 459.32 453.06 -1.36% ND  
40 Carlos Lee Mia 472.54 448.73 -5.04% 445.65 5.69%
41 Matt Adams StL 508.90 504.33 -0.90% ND  
42 Ty Wigginton StL 558.52 555.00 -0.63% ND  
43 Gaby Sanchez Pit 559.33 560.06 0.13% ND  
44 Todd Helton Col 577.92 587.29 1.62% ND  
45 Bryan LaHair ChC 610.82 597.48 -2.18% ND  
46 David Cooper Tor 616.95 612.85 -0.66% ND  
47 Mauro Gomez Bos 629.31 624.50 -0.76% ND  
48 Casey McGehee NYY 657.12 656.97 -0.02% ND  
49 Casey Kotchman Mia 658.69 656.42 -0.34% ND  
50 Laynce Nix Phi 674.57 674.57 0.00% ND  

The most obvious thing when I look at this ADP table is the complete lack of drop-off for the position. Obviously there are a few players who may be taken a small handful of picks later but there is no one who is trending downward so much that you would be taken aback. That just shows the strength of the position right now. Even Corey Hart who underwent knee surgery and is expected to miss at least the first month of the season, has only seen his ADP drop by 2.86% in the past week. The fact that his healing time has diminished is definitely working in his favor as rumors swirl that he could be back as early as the end of April.

So if no one’s falling, let’s take a look at some of the recent risers…

Lance Berkman, TEX (+7.39%) – His ADP is still fairly low, but he’s managed to crack the top 300 finally. I can’t say that I’ve ever been a huge fan, particularly for the fact that his power numbers have been on the steady decline for a number of years. Yes, 2011 was an up year but that season was more an aberration than the norm. In fact, look at his splits that season and you’ll see that there was virtually no power to be had in the second half. Sure, he posted a decent average, but he was hitting like a middle infielder and killing owners who either held onto him or traded for him. Sure, he’s DHing in Texas now and the risk for injury is less and the ballpark is super tasty, but he still has to run the bases, doesn’t he? Maybe for some depth in the final few rounds of your draft, but never as a primary guy on whom to rely.

Chris Carter, HOU (+5.35%) – here’s another one pretty far down the list, but, in my opinion, loaded with more upside. The Astros still have a few things to iron out, but for right now, they’re penciling in Carter to play left field for them. With Carlos Pena and Brett Wallace handling duties at first base and at DH, there wasn’t a whole hell of a lot of room for Carter when they picked him up. But should this move to left field work, Carter could become a real interesting sleeper candidate. He’s displayed strong power during his time in the minors and flashes of it during his sporadic major league moments. Should he be in line for full-time at-bats, you could be looking at close to 25 home runs on the year.

Other guys climbing the ADP ranks include Paul Konerko, Mike Napoli (but that’s probably more his catcher eligibility coming through) and Brandon Moss. The movement isn’t huge, but there are certainly more people buying into them.

Outliers from Mock Draft Central

Corey Hart is getting no love from the masses over at MDC right now, but should a few more positive reports come through you’ll probably see a growth in believers…at least maybe as many as there are in the NFBC.

There’s almost a two round gap between where Kendrys Morales is going  in the NFBC and where he’s coming off the board at MDC. Few are enamored with the move to Safeco for the former 30-HR Morales, but this difference seems to be more about the size of the leagues drafting. Remember, the NFBC is 15 teams while there’s an obvious array of different sized leagues with the average being 12.

Paul Goldschmidt continues to lead the anomaly train as he remains a second round pick at MDC and ends up going somewhere around the fourth in the NFBC. A lot is tied to the default rankings within the system, but there are also a whole lot of believer expecting a .280-30-15 season.

Anthony Rizzo seems to be in a very similar boat, but just a couple of rounds later.

Mike Napoli is seeing a 40 pick difference, going much higher over at MDC than he is in the NFBC. Again, that is obviously tied to his position eligibility at catcher, ironically, another position you can probably wait on in your draft.

And finally, there’s Ryan Howard who is also seeing about a 40-pick differential between the two. The uncertainty which surrounds his upcoming performance is causing those at the NFBC to wait, but the masses are obviously expecting a full return to his beastly power-hitting ways. Of course, it could also be that the masses just crave power in any form they can get their hands on and are just reaching a little too high for anyone who may or has already reached that 30-HR plateau.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for more detailed questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

 

Comments

By: driscollj
On: 2/27/2013 7:04:00 PM
Could Cuddyer have a few years of decent productivity left?
 
By: Howard Bender
On: 3/4/2013 4:04:00 AM
The Cuddyer comment was answered over at MDC, so check out the detailed answer. The quick response, though, is a yes.
 

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