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Recent ADP Trends in the Top 100

Each day, as we inch closer and closer to Opening Night on March 31st, the tension just gets thicker and thicker. Most leagues like to wait until the last minute to draft so if you’re in more than one league, this has to be a busy time for you. But it’s crunch time and you need to make sure your skills are sharp and you have as much information as you can. Some might frown upon being over-prepared, but personally, that means you’re just loaded with more options and are better skilled at making changes on the fly. You’re only doing yourself a disservice if you think you can’t learn anything more.

For example, let’s talk about the top 100 players and where they are going in drafts. Sure, those first three picks are complete no-brainers, possibly even the top five. But where you go from there and who you take with your second, third and fourth picks will push you into one direction or another. You just need to make sure that you’ve thought out most scenarios and you have a counter-attack for anything thrown at you. Nothing worse than seeing that guy, the one who is completely rigid in his choices and game plan, stare at his laptop like a deer in the headlights because three of the four guys he was hoping to take early have already come off the board.

So with that, we’re going to take a look at the top 100 picks, somewhere between seven and nine rounds depending on how many teams are in your league, and check in with who is rising and who is falling. Always key to know the trends. We’ll also look at some outliers when we compare the ADP data from the NFBC to that of Mock Draft Central.

Rank Player Team Pos Current ADP 1 Week Ago Trend MDC ADP %Diff
1 Miguel Cabrera Det 3B 1.85 1.94 4.86% 2.01 -8.65%
2 Mike Trout LAA OF 2.03 2.03 0.00% 3.23 -59.11%
3 Ryan Braun Mil OF 2.24 2.14 -4.46% 1.57 29.91%
4 Robinson Cano NYY 2B 4.70 4.56 -2.98% 7.49 -59.36%
5 Matt Kemp LAD OF 5.70 5.92 3.86% 3.86 32.28%
6 Andrew McCutchen Pit OF 6.04 6.09 0.83% 5.62 6.95%
7 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 7.50 7.37 -1.73% 6.84 8.80%
8 Joey Votto Cin 1B 8.51 8.56 0.59% 10.76 -26.44%
9 Carlos Gonzalez Col OF 9.93 10.25 3.22% 10.68 -7.55%
10 Prince Fielder Det 1B 9.96 9.93 -0.30% 14.57 -46.29%
11 Giancarlo Stanton Mia OF 14.58 14.86 1.92% 15.30 -4.94%
12 Josh Hamilton LAA OF 14.91 14.53 -2.55% 23.46 -57.34%
13 Stephen Strasburg Was SP 15.28 14.55 -4.78% 32.64 -113.61%
14 Troy Tulowitzki Col SS 15.30 15.40 0.65% 21.66 -41.57%
15 Justin Verlander Det SP 15.45 15.13 -2.07% 23.15 -49.84%
16 Buster Posey SF C 16.55 15.78 -4.65% 12.41 25.02%
17 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 16.74 16.40 -2.03% 16.61 0.78%
18 Jose Bautista Tor OF 19.33 19.34 0.05% 9.09 52.97%
19 Justin Upton Atl OF 20.18 20.99 4.01% 10.88 46.09%
20 Hanley Ramirez LAD SS 20.20 19.96 -1.19% 34.24 -69.50%
21 Evan Longoria TB 3B 20.37 20.47 0.49% 31.96 -56.90%
22 Adrian Beltre Tex 3B 20.77 20.54 -1.11% 17.04 17.96%
23 Jose Reyes Tor SS 21.23 21.62 1.84% 15.50 26.99%
24 Bryce Harper Was OF 24.53 26.95 9.87% 15.50 36.81%
25 David Wright NYM 3B 26.31 25.00 -4.98% 28.84 -9.62%
26 Dustin Pedroia Bos 2B 26.49 26.03 -1.74% 36.43 -37.52%
27 Jason Heyward Atl OF 27.87 28.34 1.69% 26.97 3.23%
28 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 1B 27.89 27.25 -2.29% 26.03 6.67%
29 David Price TB SP 29.56 29.67 0.37% 39.85 -34.81%
30 Adam Jones Bal OF 29.75 30.44 2.32% 23.84 19.87%
31 Ian Kinsler Tex 2B 31.14 30.93 -0.67% 40.65 -30.54%
32 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B 33.85 33.69 -0.47% 30.99 8.45%
33 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos OF 34.43 34.23 -0.58% 45.45 -32.01%
34 Ryan Zimmerman Was 3B 35.79 35.06 -2.04% 41.99 -17.32%
35 Starlin Castro ChC SS 36.46 36.64 0.49% 38.55 -5.73%
36 Yoenis Cespedes Oak OF 37.89 39.13 3.27% 48.51 -28.03%
37 Felix Hernandez Sea SP 39.59 38.98 -1.54% 48.12 -21.55%
38 Chase Headley SD 3B 39.86 37.91 -4.89% 45.03 -12.97%
39 B.J. Upton Atl OF 41.41 42.30 2.15% 23.76 42.62%
40 Jay Bruce Cin OF 42.00 42.72 1.71% 28.73 31.60%
41 Cole Hamels Phi SP 42.37 42.41 0.09% 47.59 -12.32%
42 Billy Butler KC 1B 44.54 43.88 -1.48% 38.36 13.88%
43 Ian Desmond Was SS 45.14 44.64 -1.11% 91.58 -102.88%
44 Matt Cain SF SP 45.76 45.98 0.48% 66.92 -46.24%
45 Matt Holliday StL OF 46.34 46.91 1.23% 55.53 -19.83%
46 Paul Goldschmidt Ari 1B 46.57 47.85 2.75% 22.18 52.37%
47 Craig Kimbrel Atl RP 47.70 47.98 0.59% 29.41 38.34%
48 Cliff Lee Phi SP 48.82 49.28 0.94% 39.49 19.11%
49 Ben Zobrist TB OF 49.22 49.36 0.28% 71.46 -45.18%
50 Aramis Ramirez Mil 3B 49.37 48.22 -2.33% 52.28 -5.89%
51 Allen Craig StL 1B 49.76 50.22 0.92% 36.62 26.41%
52 Gio Gonzalez Was SP 54.58 55.96 2.53% 76.20 -39.61%
53 Jered Weaver LAA SP 54.92 54.41 -0.93% 55.39 -0.86%
54 Aaron Hill Ari 2B 57.12 56.81 -0.54% 74.38 -30.22%
55 Jimmy Rollins Phi SS 57.27 56.76 -0.89% 104.26 -82.05%
56 Yu Darvish Tex SP 57.66 59.66 3.47% 57.08 1.01%
57 Joe Mauer Min C 57.94 58.91 1.67% 54.36 6.18%
58 Jason Kipnis Cle 2B 58.15 59.02 1.50% 53.80 7.48%
59 Zack Greinke LAD SP 59.33 55.78 -5.98% 107.01 -80.36%
60 Madison Bumgarner SF SP 60.47 61.11 1.06% 73.01 -20.74%
61 Brandon Phillips Cin 2B 63.41 63.80 0.62% 76.18 -20.14%
62 Carlos Santana Cle C 65.46 65.33 -0.20% 48.14 26.46%
63 Curtis Granderson NYY OF 65.85 53.41 -18.89% 109.68 -66.56%
64 Desmond Jennings TB OF 68.06 68.91 1.25% 81.73 -20.09%
65 Adam Wainwright StL SP 68.43 70.95 3.68% 69.78 -1.97%
66 Yadier Molina StL C 69.70 69.70 0.00% 41.30 40.75%
67 Chris Sale CWS SP 69.72 69.95 0.33% 87.62 -25.67%
68 Alex Rios CWS OF 69.75 70.07 0.46% 77.68 -11.37%
69 R.A. Dickey Tor SP 70.41 68.49 -2.73% 89.68 -27.37%
70 Brett Lawrie Tor 3B 72.50 70.11 -3.30% 88.07 -21.48%
71 Max Scherzer Det SP 72.92 75.20 3.13% 92.93 -27.44%
72 Shin-Soo Choo Cin OF 74.30 75.16 1.16% 81.96 -10.31%
73 Victor Martinez Det C 74.52 75.33 1.09% 117.39 -57.53%
74 CC Sabathia NYY SP 75.50 75.12 -0.50% 102.19 -35.35%
75 Kris Medlen Atl SP 75.73 75.37 -0.48% 76.03 -0.40%
76 Freddie Freeman Atl 1B 76.23 78.16 2.53% 58.11 23.77%
77 Matt Wieters Bal C 77.35 77.33 -0.03% 54.45 29.61%
78 Michael Bourn Cle OF 78.49 78.99 0.64% 71.08 9.44%
79 James Shields KC SP 79.56 79.99 0.54% 73.96 7.04%
80 Wilin Rosario Col C 80.15 80.82 0.84% 48.99 38.88%
81 Pablo Sandoval SF 3B 83.58 81.96 -1.94% 138.45 -65.65%
82 Aroldis Chapman Cin RP 84.31 85.73 1.68% 129.84 -54.00%
83 Elvis Andrus Tex SS 86.78 85.78 -1.15% 146.71 -69.06%
84 Alex Gordon KC OF 86.83 89.47 3.04% 61.74 28.90%
85 Yovani Gallardo Mil SP 89.56 90.68 1.25% 110.79 -23.70%
86 Roy Halladay Phi SP 90.49 86.28 -4.65% 96.68 -6.84%
87 Mat Latos Cin SP 90.65 91.58 1.03% 118.82 -31.08%
88 Jonathan Papelbon Phi RP 90.70 90.97 0.30% 74.31 18.07%
89 Johnny Cueto Cin SP 91.81 92.38 0.62% 105.59 -15.01%
90 Austin Jackson Det OF 92.12 94.80 2.91% 96.61 -4.87%
91 Jordan Zimmermann Was SP 93.08 93.16 0.09% 112.96 -21.36%
92 Jose Altuve Hou 2B 93.82 94.16 0.36% 99.88 -6.46%
93 Anthony Rizzo ChC 1B 93.90 95.76 1.98% 51.70 44.94%
94 Eric Hosmer KC 1B 95.74 97.04 1.36% 76.50 20.10%
95 Jason Motte StL RP 96.41 96.93 0.54% 73.34 23.93%
96 Matt Moore TB SP 96.68 97.64 0.99% 137.84 -42.57%
97 Miguel Montero Ari C 96.87 96.47 -0.41% 58.73 39.37%
98 Asdrubal Cabrera Cle SS 97.28 96.67 -0.63% 130.22 -33.86%
99 Martin Prado Ari OF 98.70 100.58 1.90% 158.96 -61.05%
100 Mark Trumbo LAA OF 99.64 99.39 -0.25% 72.03 27.71%

First off, the most important trend to watch is the pick distribution here in the top 100. This allows you to see what position is most likely to thin out first and which ones you’ll be able to wait on until later in your draft.

Breakdown
Catcher: 8%
First Base: 11%
Second Base: 7%
Third Base: 9%
Shortstop: 8%
Outfield: 27%
Starting Pitcher: 26%
Relief Pitcher: 4%

And based on this, clearly the run on outfielders is something to keep in mind. With such a higher percentage relative to the depth found at the position, it might not be a position you want to wait too long to fill if your starting roster requires five or six. Three? Sure, wait all you want. But more than that and you’re going to need to make sure you make an early move. And while starters also seem to have a high percentage, remember just how much deeper the position is than the outfield. You can still wait and build a successful rotation without having to reach too high for an ace.  

As for actual ADP trends, the movement that we are seeing within the NFBC data is fairly minimal – not more than a couple of picks’ worth, in fact. Your biggest percentage increase is found in Bryce Harper (+9.87%) but when it comes to actually pick position, his increase comes to about two and a half spots in the rankings and that’s all. With that being the biggest increase, you can see in the rest of the risers, no one is moving up more than that. The stability is actually pretty helpful as it leaves few surprises and the consistency is more conducive to setting up multiple game plans based on who you pick first. You’ll be able to gauge, with pretty strong accuracy, who will be available to you when it comes to your next few picks and which direction makes the most sense for you as you move through the first few rounds.

As for fallers, your biggest is an easy one – Curtis Granderson (-18.89%) – who has now seen his ADP drop by a dozen picks. It’s a pretty easy one to understand as he isn’t expected to return until the middle to end of May. From there we’ve got Zack Greinke who has seen his ADP drop 5.98-percent, or roughly four and a half picks. He’s actually been on a downward trend for the last few weeks as he continues to sort out his elbow issues. Earlier reports basically said that he was still feeling a twinge and that the Dodgers were planning on taking it very slow with him considering the level of investment they made. However, you can probably expect him to level of again as he returned to the mound Wednesday and tossed four sharp innings of one-hit ball.

The place where you’re going to see the biggest swings is when you move back and forth between ADP data of NFBC and that of Mock Draft Central. This is where you see the stark differences between the consistent ADP of a single style league and the fluctuations that occur when you add in the data of numerous other leagues of varying styles. While Mock Draft Central offers five different styles of draft, each one is customizable which creates several different permutations. So let’s actually look at the biggest differences between the two main sets of data.

MDC Outliers

The biggest outlier is found in Stephen Strasburg whose 32.64 ADP at MDC is a 113.61-percent drop from the 15.28 ADP in NFBC drafts. The idea of waiting on pitching is obviously much more prevalent over at MDC and while a guy like Strasburg is basically considered late first-round material in the NFBC, he apparently doesn’t go for another round or two, depending on how many teams are in the league. One of the reasons that this might be the case is the level of competition. You have to assume that most, if not all, of your competition in the NFBC understands the depth of pitching as well and that you’re all probably going for the same late-round sleepers. Therefore, perhaps a grab of an ace or two earlier on can give you a slight edge. Personally, I think you slight yourself on offense, but that’s just one man’s opinion here.

The difference in ADP you see in Ian Desmond is, to me, a bit of a head-scratcher still. He goes so unbelievable early in the NFBC (~45th) but doesn’t get taken until roughly the 91st pick over at MDC. The difference is actually staggering. Is there just a lack of belief in Desmond by so many or is position scarcity such an important factor in the NFBC that a guy like Desmond gets rushed onto a roster? I’m not the biggest believer in Desmond’s ability to repeat his 2012 totals, so I side more with the MDC drafters, but still the difference is out of whack.

Other big fallers you see include: Jimmy Rollins (-82.05%), Zack Greinke (-80.36%), Hanley Ramirez, (-69.50%) and Elvis Andrus (-69.02%)

Conversely, the ADP for Paul Goldschmidt on MDC is significantly higher (+52.37%) than it is in the NFBC. While the position is deep, many believe that Goldy is the real deal and he’ll not only build on his power, but also maintain the speed numbers. I believe in his ability to routinely club 30-plus homers, and from the first base position, that’s all I really care about. Yes the speed is a bonus, but would I look at him differently if he stole two bases instead of 12? Probably not.

Another up and coming, power-hitting first baseman showing a major increase is Anthony Rizzo whose ADP on MDC is 51.70 while in the NFBC is sits all the way down on 93.90. It’s actually a combination of the position depth viewed by NFBC participants and the masses’ desire to be the one who discovers the next big thing.

Other risers include: Justin Upton (+46.09%), B.J. Upton (+42.62%),  Yadier Molina (+40.75) and Miguel Montero (+39.37%)

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

 

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