Recent ADP Trends for First Basemen

• By: Howard Bender
• On: 2/8/2012 12:52:00 PM

Related: Howard Bender 


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Traditionally, first base has been one of the deepest positions in fantasy.  You could wait round after round and still end up with a solid masher.  Well, the times they are a changing!  Suddenly first base is looking a little thin these days.  The top six are all bona fide studs and will be off the board within the first two rounds of your draft.  Beyond that though, the power doesn’t seem to be as strong and there seem to be some question marks surrounding some of the remaining options.  With that, it’s important to see how the ADP trends are being affected so that you know exactly where you should be looking in case you don’t pick up one of the top guys.

First Basemen ADP Trends

	Current ADP	Change	1 Week Ago	Change	2 Weeks Ago	Overall Trend
Miguel Cabrera	2.42	18.2%	2.86	12.2%	3.21	32.6%
Albert Pujols	2.84	-5.6%	2.68	-10.4%	2.40	-15.5%
Joey Votto	9.31	3.0%	9.59	0.9%	9.68	4.0%
Adrian Gonzalez	9.34	2.0%	9.53	-5.1%	9.04	-3.2%
Prince Fielder	13.80	4.7%	14.45	4.2%	15.05	9.1%
Mark Teixeira	27.07	1.0%	27.33	-1.0%	27.05	-0.1%
Paul Konerko	48.38	0.4%	48.58	-1.4%	47.89	-1.0%
Eric Hosmer	52.29	-1.1%	51.71	1.5%	52.47	0.3%
Michael Morse	77.47	1.4%	78.53	5.1%	82.56	6.6%
Freddie Freeman	122.40	-0.6%	121.66	-0.2%	121.42	-0.8%
Mark Trumbo	142.56	0.1%	142.70	-0.8%	141.60	-0.7%
Ryan Howard	145.31	-0.5%	144.64	0.3%	145.08	-0.2%
Paul Goldschmidt	147.67	-0.5%	146.93	-2.0%	143.98	-2.5%
Adam Lind	151.93	-1.2%	150.13	-1.0%	148.63	-2.2%
Justin Morneau	162.04	0.3%	162.46	-0.1%	162.37	0.2%
Ike Davis	174.06	2.6%	178.65	2.6%	183.23	5.3%
Gaby Sanchez	197.97	0.1%	198.15	-0.3%	197.50	-0.2%
Kendrys Morales	214.92	2.9%	221.12	2.0%	225.62	5.0%
Mike Carp	217.13	7.6%	233.68	0.0%	233.68	7.6%
Todd Helton	219.39	-0.6%	218.10	8.1%	235.75	7.5%
Carlos Pena	220.51	0.1%	220.67	1.5%	223.94	1.6%
Justin Smoak	221.61	-0.5%	220.53	-0.2%	220.00	-0.7%
James Loney	223.68	0.4%	224.50	14.2%	256.43	14.6%
Daniel Murphy	230.48	0.3%	231.14	1.8%	235.24	2.1%
Derrek Lee	230.98	-0.2%	230.60	0.2%	230.95	0.0%
Mitch Moreland	236.33	-0.5%	235.09	0.2%	235.66	-0.3%
Adam LaRoche	256.43	4.8%	268.84	21.9%	327.78	27.8%
Aubrey Huff	261.60	2.0%	266.77	0.0%	266.77	2.0%
Jesus Guzman	266.77	-1.2%	263.67	5.5%	278.15	4.3%
Casey Kotchman	266.77		ND		ND
Chris Davis	269.87	34.1%	361.90	2.3%	370.17	37.2%
Anthony Rizzo	309.17	-9.7%	279.18	-7.8%	257.47	-16.7%
Dan Johnson	431.18	0.7%	434.28	1.9%	442.55	2.6%
Brandon Snyder	460.13	0.0%	460.13	0.4%	462.20	0.4%

Let’s just start by acknowledging a changing of the guard up top as Miguel Cabrera’s 32.6% increase has allowed him to leapfrog Albert Pujols for the top honors at the position.  Obviously, the addition of Prince Fielder to the lineup and the expected third base eligibility have a lot more to do with it than people’s doubts in Pujols’ ability to continue his onslaught on pitchers now that he is in the American League.
 
Adrian Gonzalez seems to be taking a slight hit in the rankings recently as people are pointing towards his shoulder problems that hindered his power in the second half of 2011 and the fact that his .380 BABIP is completely unsustainable.  He’s still an elite option and should post a .300-30-100 batting line at the minimum, but people seem to be opting for either Joey Votto (+4.0%) or players at more scarce positions like Robinson Cano and Evan Longoria.

As the position starts to thin, players with strong power potential like Michael Morse (+6.6%) and Ike Davis (+5.3%) are starting to trend upwards as power is starting to look like it might be at a premium again.  You should also notice Adam LaRoche’s 27.8% increase in ADP over the last two weeks as he should continue to trend upwards as well because of his power potential.  He was given a full endorsement as the team’s starting first baseman which returns Morse to the outfield.

Also on the rise is Kendrys Morales who will likely see plenty of time as the Angels designated hitter this season.  With Pujols locked in at first, the club needs to find room for Morales bat and based on some of the raves they’ve given over Morales’ offseason workouts, it appears that they have settled on him as their regular DH.  Morales’ rise in ADP will coincide with an eventual drop for Mark Trumbo who looks like he might be the odd man out.

Though only by a small amount, the downward trend you see from players like Freddie Freeman (-0.8%), Paul Goldschmidt (-2.3%) and Adam Lind (-2.5%) tells me that they aren’t generating much excitement and folks know they can wait on these guys a little longer as primary first basemen is super deep mixed leagues and corner infielder in shallower leagues.  If you have a solid first baseman and are just looking for a decent corner guy, then you might be better off building elsewhere first as these guys are becoming more readily available in the later rounds.

In conjunction with that, you’ve got a rise in ADP for players like Todd Helton (+7.5%), Mike Carp (+7.6%) and Carlos Pena (+1.6%).  Though in the long run, the guys above, Freeman, Goldschmidt and Lind might have better upside, these guys are being picked up just as often though a few rounds later.  Even James Loney (+14.2%) is finding himself climbing up the rankings as people need corner infielders.

Yonder Alonso is conspicuously absent from the rankings here, but fellow Padre Jesus Guzman actually makes a debut this week as the 29th ranked first baseman.  This should be a situation to watch this spring as the Padres traded for Alonso with the hopes of him being their first baseman of the future.  But Guzman made quite a name for himself in just 271 plate appearances last year, so the team will have give him a strong look.  If Alonso gets outhit this spring and can’t limit the strikeouts, he could land in Triple-A once again.  However, with Guzman’s ability to play the outfield, there’s a chance we see both up here.  Expect to see Alonso’s name hit this list at some point closer to the season.

Also absent from the first base ADP rankings is Mark Reynolds.  He is listed on the site as a third baseman, but played in 44 games at first last year thus qualifying him at the position.  His current ADP is 118.26 which is a 0.9% increase over the last two weeks.  You’re still probably better off drafting him as a third baseman, but if first base bottoms out for you too quickly, he is definitely worth a look…so long as you are willing to eat the batting average and put up with the strikeouts.

Biggest Riser:  Chris Davis, BAL  (+37.2%) – While the Orioles signed Wilson Betemit to help with depth at the corners, the team is still planning on going with the feast or famine mentality and have said that Davis will see plenty of time at first base and DH this season.  They’ve withstood Reynolds’ strikeouts so long as he hits 30 bombs, so they feel they can do it with Davis as well.  He’s not a good candidate as your primary first baseman, but could make for an outstanding corner infielder.

Biggest Faller:  Anthony Rizzo, CHC  (-16.7%) – Though Rizzo is considered the Cubs first baseman of the future, the team is likely going to start the year with Bryan LaHair at first while Rizzo takes some at bats down in Triple-A.  The expected plan is that the Cubs will move either Alfonso Soriano or Marlon Byrd and then move LaHair to the outfield.  That will then open up space for Rizzo, so if he hits in the PCL as he did last season, he won’t be down there for too long.
 
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire, FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz.  You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.