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Recent ADP Trends -- The All-Important Wide Receivers

If there’s one thing that everyone in the fantasy community can agree on, it’s that, while the position is incredibly deep, wide receivers are continuously on the rise and are becoming much more valuable to owners each year. And we’re just talking standard scoring here. Forget about PPR leagues. In those, the values of some are going through the roof. But even in standard leagues, they are steadily climbing up the charts.

Obviously the depth of the quarterback position coupled with the lack of depth (and reliability) of the running backs is what’s helping boost the value of receivers, but you simply cannot slight the talent to be found as receivers today are better than ever. Names like Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall adorn the elite tiers, but even “secondary guys like Eric Decker and Mike Williams are posting fantasy numbers that can be the difference-maker during any weekly match-up. Given the fact that many leagues now use three wide receivers and a flex in the starting roster requirements, the receivers’ level of importance has grown immensely and even though there’s tremendous talent to be had in the later rounds, you’re not going to want to wait.

We know the ADP value of many receivers is going to be higher in PPR leagues and we’ll do a full piece on that soon enough. For today, though, let’s start with the base and discuss the trends we are seeing right now in standard-scoring drafts. Similarly to what we saw in the running backs the other day, the position on the whole is rising. The majority of receivers have seen an ADP increase over the last two weeks and those that haven’t are either saddled with a debilitating injury, a suspension or have a decrease that is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

Now let’s get specific…
Player Pos Team Current ADP Change 1 Wk Ago Change 2 Wks Ago Overall Trend
Calvin Johnson WR DET 4.96 2.00% 5.06 13.80% 5.76 16.10%
A.J. Green WR CIN 13.04 5.40% 13.74 -1.00% 13.60 4.30%
Dez Bryant WR DAL 13.98 3.60% 14.48 2.80% 14.88 6.40%
Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 16.35 4.60% 17.10 2.50% 17.52 7.20%
Julio Jones WR ATL 17.33 5.20% 18.23 0.70% 18.36 5.90%
Brandon Marshall WR CHI 19.76 4.10% 20.58 -5.00% 19.56 -1.00%
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 27.61 11.70% 30.84 0.60% 31.04 12.40%
Roddy White WR ATL 28.08 7.30% 30.13 3.80% 31.28 11.40%
Andre Johnson WR HOU 31.94 9.50% 34.97 2.10% 35.72 11.80%
Jordy Nelson WR GB 32.90 5.30% 34.65 2.00% 35.36 7.50%
Dwayne Bowe WR KC 36.27 5.40% 38.23 0.00% 38.24 5.40%
Randall Cobb WR GB 36.41 8.50% 39.52 2.70% 40.60 11.50%
Victor Cruz WR NYG 38.33 9.70% 42.03 -0.90% 41.64 8.60%
Torrey Smith WR BAL 38.47 3.10% 39.68 1.80% 40.40 5.00%
Marques Colston WR NO 42.24 5.60% 44.61 1.90% 45.44 7.60%
Vincent Jackson WR TB 43.76 8.90% 47.65 -1.40% 47.00 7.40%
Hakeem Nicks WR NYG 46.39 1.70% 47.16 1.10% 47.68 2.80%
Danny Amendola WR NE 47.84 2.60% 49.06 -0.20% 48.96 2.30%
Cecil Shorts WR JAX 52.59 -1.70% 51.68 1.20% 52.28 -0.60%
Mike Wallace WR MIA 52.69 -0.20% 52.58 2.10% 53.68 1.90%
Eric Decker WR DEN 55.78 2.80% 57.32 2.40% 58.68 5.20%
Mike Williams WR TB 56.61 2.60% 58.10 0.10% 58.16 2.70%
Pierre Garcon WR WAS 60.12 2.60% 61.71 5.30% 64.96 8.10%
Antonio Brown WR PIT 60.51 2.40% 61.97 0.20% 62.08 2.60%
DeSean Jackson WR PHI 62.57 2.50% 64.13 5.70% 67.80 8.40%
Steve Johnson WR BUF 66.61 1.00% 67.29 3.70% 69.76 4.70%
Steve Smith WR CAR 68.31 2.50% 70.00 2.30% 71.64 4.90%
Reggie Wayne WR IND 69.02 2.80% 70.94 5.80% 75.04 8.70%
Kenny Britt WR TEN 69.94 4.90% 73.39 2.20% 75.04 7.30%
Wes Welker WR DEN 70.37 1.00% 71.06 6.30% 75.56 7.40%
Anquan Boldin WR SF 71.86 2.40% 73.55 5.10% 77.32 7.60%
Tavon Austin WR STL 77.69 1.80% 79.10 4.60% 82.72 6.50%
Lance Moore WR NO 79.63 2.30% 81.45 4.90% 85.44 7.30%
Miles Austin WR DAL 82.84 4.60% 86.65 4.10% 90.20 8.90%
James Jones WR GB 84.06 6.20% 89.26 3.70% 92.56 10.10%
T.Y. Hilton WR IND 84.14 5.90% 89.13 3.30% 92.08 9.40%
Denarius Moore WR OAK 84.67 1.20% 85.68 3.60% 88.80 4.90%
Sidney Rice WR SEA 86.20 1.80% 87.74 2.90% 90.32 4.80%
Josh Gordon WR CLE 86.59 -21.30% 68.13 4.10% 70.92 -18.10%
Greg Jennings WR MIN 93.02 -1.40% 91.71 10.10% 101.00 8.60%
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR IND 93.37 1.70% 94.97 1.10% 96.04 2.90%
Michael Floyd WR ARI 95.88 0.40% 96.26 3.80% 99.88 4.20%
Malcom Floyd WR SD 101.63 1.40% 103.10 2.60% 105.76 4.10%
Chris Givens WR STL 105.57 4.10% 109.90 2.90% 113.08 7.10%
Brian Hartline WR MIA 106.33 -0.90% 105.42 4.80% 110.48 3.90%
Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 108.37 2.60% 111.23 2.70% 114.20 5.40%
Emmanuel Sanders WR PIT 108.69 1.30% 110.13 4.70% 115.32 6.10%
Greg Little WR CLE 112.24 1.30% 113.74 4.00% 118.24 5.30%
Rueben Randle WR NYG 114.86 1.00% 116.00 5.40% 122.24 6.40%
Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN 119.61 3.00% 123.19 3.10% 127.04 6.20%
Jacoby Ford WR OAK 121.94 1.80% 124.13 0.10% 124.28 1.90%
Justin Blackmon WR JAX 125.76 -2.80% 122.26 7.60% 131.56 4.60%
Stephen Hill WR NYJ 125.82 2.30% 128.68 0.90% 129.88 3.20%
Aaron Dobson WR NE 126.88 3.10% 130.84 2.80% 134.56 6.10%
Kendall Wright WR TEN 129.67 0.70% 130.58 7.40% 140.20 8.10%
DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 130.45 1.60% 132.48 6.80% 141.52 8.50%
Ryan Broyles WR DET 133.24 -0.80% 132.13 7.80% 142.44 6.90%
Golden Tate WR SEA 133.59 2.20% 136.52 22.50% 167.24 25.20%
Brian Quick WR STL 142.71 3.40% 147.52 0.50% 148.20 3.80%
Mohamed Sanu WR CIN 142.73 0.00% 142.71 8.40% 154.64 8.30%
Jonathan Baldwin WR KC 147.29 4.30% 153.68 4.50% 160.52 9.00%
Brandon LaFell WR CAR 147.69 1.20% 149.52 5.30% 157.40 6.60%
Jacoby Jones WR BAL 158.00 -1.80% 155.16 11.20% 172.48 9.20%
Donnie Avery WR KC 159.12 -0.80% 157.84 6.90% 168.72 6.00%
Vincent Brown WR SD 159.61 17.20% 187.03 5.70% 197.64 23.80%
Andre Roberts WR ARI 162.55 -0.10% 162.35 24.20% 201.64 24.00%
Nate Burleson WR DET 165.18 0.80% 166.42 15.60% 192.44 16.50%
AJ Jenkins WR SF 168.43 3.00% 173.55 15.10% 199.76 18.60%
Rod Streater WR OAK 171.71 2.60% 176.13 13.20% 199.36 16.10%
Santonio Holmes WR NYJ 173.18 7.50% 186.23 10.20% 205.28 18.50%
Dexter McCluster WR KC 188.43 8.50% 204.52 1.60% 207.76 10.30%

Biggest Risers

Golden Tate, SEA (+25.20%) – He may not be the biggest guy out there, but Tate has excellent speed, good hands and can be a fantastic deep threat when the Seahawks want to spread the field. But Tate isn’t seeing a rise in his ADP because of his talent and potential alone. He’s climbing up the ranks thanks to a Percy Harvin injury and lack of other options in Seattle. He’ll start opposite a slightly banged-up Sidney Rice and should see a considerable amount of targets from a more comfortable and confident Russell Wilson. He’s still a pretty good bargain with an ADP of 133.59, but should he continue to climb, you better be careful and not reach too high.

Andre Roberts, ARI (+24.00%) – Confidence is high with Carson Palmer taking over in Arizona and while Larry Fitzgerald should still dominate the targets, Roberts is getting more and more respect in fantasy drafts as many owners are realizing just how talented he is and how underutilized he’s been. He’s actually listed third on the depth chart with Fitz and Michael Floyd leading the way, but should Floyd stumble even just a little bit, Roberts is more than capable of stepping in as the number two.

Vincent Brown, SD (+23.80%) – He was already on the rise back in June, now that he’s at full health finally, but now with Danario Alexander (ACL) out for the year and Malcom Floyd (knee) almost following suit, Brown continues to climb both the team depth chart and the ADP rankings. He’s an incredibly talented receiver, but be careful with him as he’ll start to lose value once more and more people start writing about him and his ADP climbs above where it normally should be. That’s not to say that he’s going to be a bust if you take him in the fifth or sixth round, but he’ll be so much more valuable if you can snag him in the ninth round and beyond .

A.J. Jenkins, SF (18.60%) – There is so much talent to be had here and if you ask any of his teammates about him, you’ll hear more gushing than an erupting volcano. Unfortunately, Jenkins isn’t shining when it counts most. While he looks great in practice, he is floundering during games, as evidenced by his drops and lost fumble during the team’s first preseason game. The 49ers have another 10 receivers in camp, all vying for the chance to be the team’s number two guy opposite Anquan Boldin, so Jenkins needs to start picking up his level of play all around if he even wants to make the team. His age and potential should help keep him around, but if he doesn’t step it up soon, he could be on the outs.

Santonio Holmes, NYJ (18.50%) – While he may still be dealing with a foot issue that could sideline him for more than just a few weeks again, fantasy owners are looking to grab him in the middle to later rounds with the hopes that he will show that once-explosive level of play he had while with the Steelers years ago. Should he return both healthy and to form, Holmes would make for an outstanding pick at roughly the 173rd pick. Any higher and you better be sure that he’s going to bounce back.

Nate Burleson, DET (+16.50%) – He’s listed on the Detroit depth chart as the number two receiver, but has an ADP of 165.18 due to the lack of targets he’ll really get while Calvin Johnson is still around. But be careful here as well, as Burleson’s stay as the number-two guy may be short-lived given the talents of Ryan Broyles who emerged last season as a reliable and trustworthy receiver. Broyles has awesome sleeper potential and if he lives up to it, Burleson better step up his game if he wants to continue to be relevant.

In addition to the above wide receivers, here’s a list of those who have recently been drafted, but were not as of a week or even two weeks ago. They are, technically, on the rise and should be monitored closely in deeper leagues as they have the potential to be fantasy relevant at some point during the season, but for right now, we’re not looking at anyone who can’t be had on the waiver wire over the first few weeks of the season.

Brandon Lloyd FA 196.41
-NR-
-NR- ++
Santana Moss WAS 197.69 2.40% 202.35
-NR- ++
Jeremy Kerley NYJ 198.27 4.90% 208.06
-NR- ++
Andrew Hawkins CIN 198.88
-NR-
-NR- ++
Nate Washington TEN 199.76
-NR-
-NR- ++
Josh Morgan WAS 202.08
-NR-
-NR- ++
Earl Bennett CHI 203.29
-NR-
-NR- ++
Mario Manningham SF 207.67
-NR-
-NR- ++
Joseph Morgan NO 207.98 -7.30% 192.81 6.60% 205.52 -1.20%
Robert Woods BUF 208.41
-NR-
-NR- ++
Davone Bess CLE 208.67
-NR-
-NR- ++
T.J. Graham BUF 209.61
-NR-
-NR- ++
Percy Harvin SEA 209.82 -3.10% 203.29 -75.10% 50.60 -75.90%
Michael Crabtree SF 210.39
-NR-
-NR- ++
Julian Edelman NE 224.38 -7.00% 208.68
-NR- ++
Riley Cooper PHI 244.02
-NR-
-NR- ++
 

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

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