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Re-setting Expectations for the Knicks

The Knicks might have the most imposing three-man frontcourt in basketball. And their coach has led some of the most impressive offensive teams of the last decade-plus, including Steve Nash's Suns and Team USA.

So why is New York struggling to crack the 85-point barrier most nights?

The first quarter of this compressed season has exposed some major flaws in the Knick roster. Toney Douglas was supposed to fill in at point guard until Baron Davis was healthy enough to play, but it quickly became obvious that he's not up to the task. That led Mike D'Antoni to try rookie Iman Shumpert and Carmelo Anthony as initiators of the offense... which didn't work either. Shumpert may develop into a true point, but he's not there yet. And while Anthony is a very capable passer, he doesn't have a point guard's mentality; to 'Melo, setting up the best shot usually means taking it himself. Meanwhile, Amar'e Stoudemire started the season encased in rust after spending much of the summer and early fall rehabbing a back injury, and Landry Fields opened the year looking as lost as he did against the Celtics in last year's playoffs.

But things could improve... and fast.

Landry Fields has been much better in the last week and is putting up numbers comparable to the first half of last season when he was a two-time Eastern Conference rookie of the month. Stoudemire showed flashes of his 2010-11 form in Friday's win over the Bobcats - a positive indication that he isn't hurt - and he'll have a chance to play "lead dog" for the next couple of games as Anthony is sidelined. And the arrival of Baron Davis - which could be any day now - should allow the team to play Douglas and Shumpert in roles where they'll be more comfortable and better positioned to succeed.

I'd buy low on all of the above right now.

To answer a question someone posted in Working the Wire this week, I don't think Davis' arrival will hurt Fields or Shumpert much. Initially, Davis probably won't be playing heavy minutes anyway. I think Fields will remain in the starting backcourt - D'Antoni had Davis and Fields running with the starters in practice this week - with Shumpert backing both positions and Toney Douglas moving down to fourth in the guard rotation.

Fields could also get some playing time at small forward when Anthony rests; many people think the three is his natural position anyway.

About the decision to sit Anthony this weekend: I think the Knicks are making the right call. In the last two weeks,'Melo has suffered injuries to his ankle, his left wrist and his right wrist and thumb. And while he's tried to play through the pain, he's shooting .313 from the floor over his last five games. And let's be real - the team is likely to struggle in Miami whether Anthony plays or not. This is a perfect time to give him a much-needed rest and hopefully get him back on track.

I also think this is a great opportunity for the Knicks to feature Stoudemire. Anthony's ball-dominance isn't the only reason Stoudemire has struggled; I think the shift back to power forward - due to Tyson Chandler's arrival - has forced Stoudemire to work further away from the basket, and Chandler's presence has created spacing issues that the Knicks' three-point shooting slump have just made worse.

 It's far too early to tell whether or not the Knicks will live up to the considerable pre-season hype. But I don't think this team is as bad as it has looked.

Comments

By: PMain
On: 1/29/2012 11:57:00 AM
Charlie,

Sunday's NY Times says Baron won't be back for another 1-2 weeks.

Assuming he's back in, say 10 days, what do you think his numbers
will be like?

Is he still overweight?

If he's still fat his back will trouble him even more, as will his entire
body as it goes thru the pounding of NBA basketball with a condensed schedule
playing 4 games a week.
 
By: The Professor
On: 1/29/2012 10:37:00 PM
Oh, Charlie. You either scooped me or really set me up well for my Hoops Lab this week. I usually don't write my lead until Wednesday, but this weekend I had some time so I went ahead and wrote my lead...and it's all about the Knicks, and why they aren't better. And my reasoning differs almost 180 degrees from yours here...in fact, my reasoning is essentially that the first sentence in this post is false. I'd love to have you chime in with a comment once it comes out, maybe we can have a nice debate.
 
By: nayfel
On: 1/30/2012 5:20:00 PM
Mr. Professor, I think we are headed to the same place. Amare is NOT an elite player right now. He is not even a great one. The guy is completely lost and doesn't seem to care at all either.
I live in NYC but not a Knicks fan and can't watch the games now because of Time Warner (don't get m started on this) but I have gone to a bunch of consistently seeing a passionless and seemingly bored Amare. Before the game, he seems to have a ton of energy chest bumping and the like but come game time, he doesn't take an aggressive stance at all. He is NOT getting involved in the offense after the ball passes the half court and isn't lining up in the pst to give the offense some balance. He rarely even starts low and pops high, which is a natural way to free yourself for a jumper. He imply sits on the perimeter, in spots which cannot be reached by a single pass. He rarely goes to set the pick and roll and when he does, he slides out, usually towards the baseline, and waits to see what happens. This is NOT the behavior of a motivated, strong willed, aggressive star player. It seems like he knows he doesn't have to score 25 a game anymore (not saying it is true but that's what it seems like to me) and will just let Melo carry the weight.
Considering how he always wanted to be "The Man" when in Phoenix and the way he played in beginning of last year, this is truly weird. I guess it was more about respect than winning and now that he has the respect, he can let someone else work their tail off and expose themselves to the media.
I would rather a guy like Melo over Amare any day. It kills me that Melo has taken such a beating this year while Amare has not come under fire much. Melo at least is playing to win and doing his very best, even fi it sometimes is not the best way for the team to try and win. Amare simply doesn't care.

And lastly, the coaching has been an absolute joke. I have not seen the Knicks run an actual play all year. The Knicks run an offense which puts people in spots, that is it. then, it is up to the ball-handler to make something of it. But with this roster, it makes no sense. The fact that D'Antoni has not tried some creative ways to get Amare more involved is baffling. Before the season, he said he wanted Amare to run into a stretch 4, which obviously is not working. Now, its almost like they won't acknowledge that this isn't working for Amare personally or the Knicks in general. I have yet to see any urgency ion the coaching to try and right this offensive ship.

Lats last thing: on defense, the Knicks fall under the coaching of M Woodson. I know he is a former head coach and is a defensive minded coach but what he has the Knicks doing is ridiculous. Not sure if peoppe are aware but the Knicks have a policy that they MUST switch on every pick and roll. doesn't matter which players are involved, what the score is and how they are playing. The Knicks switch on EVERY pick and roll. And when they lost to Denver about 10 days ago, Denver exposed this policy on every possession for the last 20 or so possessions. every single time down they would start with a pick and roll that wasn't intended to initiate offense but to get a mis-match. Then, Denver would start their offense. Forget about the question if they should have a policy like this or not, as that's a much larger conversation. But, when you notice a defense is purposely doing it every time down and getting a mis-match every possession, how do you not change your plan? These are professionals, they know how to make adjustments, this isn't some high school team that needs a 1 size fits all type of strategy. denver came back from double digits in the 2nd half and won the game in double overtime mostly bc of Gallinari and the mi-matches. I am not kidding when I say that there were dozens of fans who noticed and screamed and complained about this while watching it happen play after play after play.

Sorry for the long comment but it really bothers me how that the Knicks are playing like this when they clearly are capable of more. And that the blame is directed to the wrong person in my opinion.
 
By: Poincare
On: 1/31/2012 2:42:00 AM
nayfel,

Speaking only for myself, there is absolutely no need to apologize for your lengthy comment. I thoroughly enjoyed reading it--even more than your original post in fact. I genuinely appreciate your observations on the Knicks players and games. The 2nd to last paragraph regarding the pick and roll switch was the highlight for me. I find that kind of information fascinating. That is the kind of stuff I love finding out while reading a sports blog.
 
By: Charlie Zegers
On: 1/31/2012 9:36:00 AM
@Dre - looking forward to it. I do think the Melo/Stoudemire/Chandler CAN be one of the league's best, and certainly stacks up if you look at career stats and such... but right now they're having a very hard time figuring out how to play together. The fact that Anthony is spending too much time as a facilitator and Stoudemire hasn't adjusted to playing more of a traditional power forward role are big factors there.

@Nayfel - yeah, the switching drives me nuts too. D'Antoni loves to do that, and it sort of works when you've got more than one player on the floor that can defend multiple positions... they had some success with Jared Jeffries and Wilson Chandler switching on every play last season. I do think they've scaled it back to some extent since the Denver game... next time you're able to watch, see if you agree.
 
By: nayfel
On: 1/31/2012 4:20:00 PM
Unfortunately, i can't watch the games anymore.

I know most of what I wrote is subjective but most of the advanced stats back up a passive Amare. In fact, his numbers are way down since the trade, which can be attributed both to the addition of Melo and the loss of Felton.

I hope he plays better or at least begins caring.
 

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