Quick Starters: Buy or Sell?

• By: Justin Phan
• On: 11/5/2009 1:49:00 AM

Related: Justin Phan Memphis Grizzlies New York Knicks NBA 



• View Comments : 4

The first few weeks of the fantasy hoops season are a real mixed bag. It counts, but at the same time it really doesn't. As us fantasy hoops enthusiasts scour box scores trying to pick games apart and get an early read on players, we must also keep in mind that we are dealing with sample sizes of five games or less here. While early signs of life from players like Marc Gasol and Danilo Gallinari are certainly encouraging, their current averages and ranks will almost surely be significantly off from what they will be at the end of the season. The real question is how far off will they be?

Marc Gasol (per-game rank: 10)

Gasol has certainly done his part to silence those of us who wrote him off due to the addition of Zach Randolph, assuming he would just be phased out like the rest of his teammates. He is currently putting up career-highs in all nine categories and has logged four double-doubles in five games. The mere fact that he is putting up career-highs across the board should raise a bunch of red flags about his value.

It is hardly feasible to buy that an offense that added Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson in the offseason has become more efficient, which it has managed to do over the first five games (offensive efficiency from 103.5, 28th in the league, to 106.8, 10th in the league). So count me out in believing that Gasol will maintain his much-improved shooting efficiency (60.4 percent from the field). The rebounding spike is a bit absurd as well. The Grizzlies are currently leading the league in rebounding, averaging nearly nine more rebounds per game than they did last season. Gasol's increased output on the offensive glass has also fed into more attempts at the line. By the numbers, an added 1.5 offensive rebounds should lead to an added 2.8 attempts at the line. Gasol has added 3.7. Throw all of this together and you'll get a near six-point increase in his scoring average.

Combine that with the fact that the Grizzlies have faced three opponents in the top-10 in ease ranking, one of which went into overtime, and you'll see that Gasol is playing out of his mind right now.

Projected end-of-season averages: 13.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1 steal, 2.2 turnovers, 54% FG on 8.7 attempts, 76% FT on 5 attempts.

Danilo Gallinari (per-game rank: 29)

I see Gallinari taking a very similar path to fantasy relevancy as Wilson Chandler did last season. Both started out as promising swingmen in Mike D'Antoni's up-tempo, run-n-gun offense and lived up to the preseason hype by getting off to quick starts.

After about a month though, the fatigue started to set in for Chandler and his per-game averages slipped significantly because of it.

This is a scenario that I can almost guarantee will play out with Gallinari, especially considering that he came into this season out of shape and a significant injury risk with his back. While Chandler was able to rough it and play through the full 82-game schedule, I am highly skeptical that Gallo will be able to do the same.

Chandler had solid rebounding, steal, and block averages to fall back on, whereas Gallinari's fantasy game has been pretty one-dimensional so far -- limited to three-point shooting. If he gets into a shooting slump and his three-pointers made average falls into the 2.0-2.5 range, he could be borderline ownable in standard 12x13 leagues. Hanging onto Gallo could pay off if he manages to weather the storm during his slump though.Chandler came back from a three-month long slump to post stellar averages after the All-Star break.

Projected end-of-season averages:14.0 points, 2.8 three-pointers made, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks, 1.5 turnovers, 40.8% FG on 11.5 attempts, 81.8% FT on 2.2 attempts

There is no universal advice I can offer as to whether or not you should 'sell high' on this duo. If someone in your league is willing to overpay for these guys based on their current rank then by all means, but chances are that it won't happen. The best advice I can offer is to get a sense of what the market is for these two players and make your decision based on which side of the above projected averages the owner falls on.