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Picks, 4/19/10

Getting in and out quickly today, much like John Lackey:

Texas/New York over 9.0 (-105). Like Saturday, six runs in the first three innings. Unlike Saturday, just one the rest of the way. Time to take a good long look at the Rangers' offense; you can't blame the loss of Ian Kinsler, as Joaquin Arias has played out of his mind. As currently constituted, they're going to need a bat from inside--Justin Smoak, Max Ramirez--or out.

Chicago (AL) -102. Fausto Carmona put up another quality start, this time even striking out more men than he walked. The Indians pounded Gavin Floyd in support of him.

Tampa Bay +128. Matt Garza for the win.

Milwaukee/Washington over 9.5 (-105). This one was in with one out in the top of the first, on its way to 18 runs. Would that everything were so easy.

Houston +175. The Astros were shut out into the eighth, then scored in that inning and the next two to squeeze out a win.

Today:

New York (NL) +119, one unit. The Cubs and Randy Wells aren't really good enough to be road favorites behind their #4 starter against a comparable team. The Mets aren't very good, but they represent value here even if they probably won't get to bat against Tyler Colvin and Jeff Baker.

Torontp -114, one unit. Brandon Morrow is better than he has looked so far, and even if he's not, this is just north of even money against the Royals, a team that made Dontrelle Willis look viable twice in one week.

Los Angeles (AL) -176, 1.5 units. You won't see me on a line this big very often. Today, however, it represents an underlay against Willis, who doesn't have anywhere near the command necessary to pitch in a major-league rotation.

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