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Picks, 4/18/10

If there's any pattern developing, it's that the more games I pick, the better I do. Then again, small sample size.

Houston +131. Roy Oswalt threw seven shutout innings and the Astros scored four runs. That works.

Texas/New York (AL) over 9.5 (-120). The game was 7-0 through four innings, but I needed a three-run shot in the eighth to just squeak over the number. Scott Feldman didn't pitch as badly as he line looked; he had command issues, but a number of the hits he allowed were cheap.

New York (NL) -105. As expected, Johan Santana pitched well and the Mets won.

Los Angeles (NL) +150. Charlie Haeger had no command of his knuckleball, and got little support from his defense. This actually could have been uglier--the Giants ran themselves out of an inning in the first.

Cleveland +111. Jake Peavy pitched better than expected and the game was tied in the eighth when the Indians scored off Matt Thornton for the win.

Florida -103. Man, I should have hit this harder. The Marlins scored five in the first and Ricky Nolasco had a shutout through 26 outs. The time to get Nolasco at good numbers may be nearing its end.

Today:

Texas/New York (AL) over 9.0 (-105), two units. It's still a good hitters' park, Rich Harden is facing a patient lineup, Andy Pettitte is facing power. Both teams are good defensively, which may be holding the number down.

Chicago (AL) -102, two units. I could go higher. Fausto Carmona has allowed 10 walks, struck out five men and given up the lowest BABIP in baseball. And he's favored.

Tampa Bay +128, one unit. Just a play on Matt Garza, with the caveat that his two strong starts have come against  the Orioles.

Milwaukee/Washington over 9.5 (-105), one unit. Fading Doug Davis, Jason Marquis, two bad bullpens and two mediocre defenses.

Houston +175, .5 units. Note the decimal. I can't quit Wandy.





 

Comments

By: Erickson
On: 4/18/2010 9:56:00 AM
"New York (NL) -105. As expected, Johan Santana pitched well and the Mets won."

Well played.
 
By: Joe Sheehan
On: 4/18/2010 11:00:00 AM
There's just something very rewarding about winning an over pick in the top of the first inning.
 
By: Erickson
On: 4/18/2010 11:02:00 AM
Eases the sting of backing Gavin Floyd today, eh?
 
By: Dave Regan
On: 4/18/2010 11:12:00 AM
At least Joe didn't parlay Floyd with Jason Marquis today.
 
By: Joe Sheehan
On: 4/18/2010 11:35:00 AM
I feel like I'm living through this again with Floyd. I had him last year in an AL-only, collected the awful stats at the start of the year, and released him at the exact point where his season turned. So seeing this is familiar.

Not sure what to do with the Indians at this point. Very odd team.
 
By: Carson Cistulli
On: 4/18/2010 12:01:00 PM
You appear to've won the MIL/WAS over. In the top of the first. With one out.
 
By: Scott Pianowski
On: 4/18/2010 8:43:00 PM
One of the funky things about totals is that it's standard for any game that goes less than 8.5 or nine innings to become a refund on the total, even if you've already made the number. I know that's crazy, but it's true. So in real life, it's possible to make the number early, then have it be a push if weather intervenes. Crazy world.

Nice rally, Joe.
 

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