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Picks, 4/17/10

Well, the Marlins didn't quit...

Florida +252. The Phillies jumped out to a big lead against Anibal Sanchez, then held their breath in the ninth inning as their middle relief allowed the tying run to get to the plate before Ryan Madson ended the threat.

Busy day today:

Houston +131, one unit. Color me not bought in just yet on the return of Tom Gorzelanny, who has been quite effective as a Cub. As bad as the Astros are, however, you have to see getting plus money with Roy Oswalt against the righty-heavy Cubs and Gorzelanny as a play.

Texas/New York (AL) over 9.5 (+105), one unit. I'm fading Scott Feldman heavily this season, as his 2009 was a fluke peak season; his starts aren't going to be listed at 9.5 for much longer. Throw in two teams that hit fly balls in a park that rewards the practice, and the plus money, and this is a clear play.

New York (NL) -105, one unit. When Johan Santana pitches, the Mets are a much, much better team than when other guys pitch. Posting this game as pick 'em factors in those other days a bit too heavily. Also, the Cardinals may be a bit overrated off a strong start against a somewhat weak slate of opponents.

Los Angeles (NL) +150, one unit. The Giants aren't very good, and even Tim Lincecum's presence leaves me thinking 3-2 on the home team and the better team is the right play. Charlie Haeger struck out a dozen men last time out, a good sign for his chances against the free-swinging Giants.

Cleveland +111, one unit. Jake Peavy hasn't done nearly enough outside of Petco Park to warrant being a road favorite against a team deep in left-handed hitters. I'm higher on the Indians than most because of those lefty bats, and getting to back Jake Westbrook against all the Sox righties at plus money is a bonus.

Florida -103, two units. Ricky Nolasco as a small dog to Jamie Moyer. I'll take two, thanks.

Comments

By: Erik Siegrist
On: 4/17/2010 10:44:00 AM
Meant to blog about Feldman in the spring, but oh well... I do not believe his 2009 is anywhere near as much of a fluke as the consensus seems to think. His fastball tails in to righties, and his cutter tails in to lefties, and for 50-odd feet they are virtually indistinguishable, which made his cutter the third-most effective pitch in all of baseball last season.

He's defense-dependent, sure, but I don't see him blowing up and vanishing. Feldman will be league average or so, with a solid team (both at the plate and in the field) around him. That's not a guy who should be shunned.
 
By: Mark Stopa
On: 4/17/2010 10:53:00 AM
Haeger's strikeouts last time out mean nothing as far as this game is concerned, I think.
 
By: Joe Sheehan
On: 4/17/2010 3:39:00 PM
It would appear Mark was correct. In Charlie's defense, he was badly let down by Joe Torre, who played Jamey Carroll behind him at shortstop, with the expected result.
 
By: Mark Stopa
On: 4/17/2010 4:17:00 PM
I can't say I envisioned Haeger having a line like that. My point was that I wouldn't trust/bet on a knuckleballer, especially at just +150 against Lincecum.

That pick surprised me, but I really enjoy this column. I like your thought processes.
 

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