NFL Notes

• By: Dalton Del Don
• On: 11/3/2009 8:23:00 PM

Related: Dalton Del Don 


• View Comments : 26

Baltimore came out of its bye and gave Ray Rice 20-plus carries for the first time all season, while Willis McGahee has become completely moot. Rice is on pace to finish the year with 1,998 yards with 87 catches and 11 touchdowns. And that’s with him averaging just 13.7 carries per game, so if Sunday’s increased usage was a sign of things to come, his numbers will look even bigger at season’s end. He’s not only matched his preseason hype, he’s exceeded it. Rice is the No. 3 player on my board right now…Eddie Royal has yet to catch a touchdown this year and has recorded three catches or fewer in all but one game this season. He’s on pace to finish with 46 receptions for 361 yards. I had high hopes entering the year, but I could not have been more wrong about Royal’s 2009 fantasy prospects.

What a tough break for Owen Daniels owners. His season-ending knee injury will likely adversely affect Matt Schaub as well, but Kevin Walter deserves an upgrade as a result…Schaub was able to muster 7.9 YPA Sunday, but with a 0:2 TD:INT ratio, this Buffalo pass defense continues to impress. It’s officially a terrible matchup for opposing quarterbacks…Entering 2009, Terrell Owens had totaled 58 receiving touchdowns over his past 68 games. He has one through eight games this year. He also “leads” the NFL with seven drops…Even if he was doing so unconventionally, Steve Slaton was easily a top-10 fantasy back entering last week, despite the fact most of his owners continued to complain about him. After losing his fourth fumble over his past five games (four games really, since the last one happened at the very beginning of Sunday’s game) and fifth of the year, even his most staunch supporters, including myself, couldn’t blame Gary Kubiak for benching him. Ryan Moats is obviously the No. 1 waiver priority this week after his performance, but don’t confuse him for anything but an average back who happened to be facing the NFL’s worst run defense. Slaton would have likely matched or surpassed those numbers if given the opportunity, and he remains the team’s most dangerous back, especially as a receiver. Still, it looks like a three-headed committee for the time being, making all risky starts.

Most Matt Forte owners were probably hoping for a big game against one of the league’s worst run defenses with the hope of dealing him afterward. With 121 yards and two touchdowns Sunday, there won’t be a better time to execute the plan. Don’t even think this is the beginning of a turnaround either, as his 3.5 YPC against a Browns’ front seven that has allowed 5.1 YPC on all non-Forte rushing attempts this season only solidifies the reason to deal him… Even though the final score was lopsided, the Bears’ offense was highly disappointing last week. The offensive line has been a real problem in Chicago…What Derek Anderson is doing is fairly unprecedented. With a 42.9 completion percentage, 4.4 YPA and a 2:9 TD:INT ratio, it’s hard to believe this is the same quarterback who threw for 29 touchdowns two years ago. Putrid doesn’t even begin to describe it. Anderson has done the impossible – make Brady Quinn seem like an upgrade…Do you realize that Eric Mangini punted on 4th and 1 down 24 points with 2:31 left in Sunday’s game? I wouldn’t expect anything different from such a gutless coach. He should be fired yesterday.

Over his past three games, Tony Romo has gotten 9.3 YPA with an 8:0 TD:INT ratio. Not coincidentally, that stretch has also coincided with Miles Austin’s insertion into the starting lineup. Unexpected players surprise every year in the NFL, and some even come out of nowhere, but this is a pretty rare case, as Austin is an undrafted WR from Monmouth who is already in his fourth year in the league. He entered Week 5 with five catches on the season. Since he’s in a terrific situation with Romo as his QB and few other options at wide receiver in Dallas (not only is Roy Williams not a No. 1, I’d argue he’s a below average No. 2), Austin has to be viewed as a legitimate top-10 fantasy WR, especially since his skill set can take full advantage of the situation; he’s got meaningful snaps in just three games this season, yet his eight catches for 25-plus yards lead the NFL. Austin’s upcoming schedule isn’t easy, but he’s a must-start at this point…I remember being shocked when Edgerrin James was selected ahead of Ricky Williams during the 1999 draft, which looked especially crazy when New Orleans traded its entire draft to move up to grab Williams. But after Edge scored 35 touchdowns over his first two seasons compared to 11 by Williams, it’s odd to see James cut by Seattle while Williams is quietly having one of the best years of his career at age 32. Of course, James’ 1,000 more career carries is the main reason why…T.J. Houshmandzadeh can bitch about his role all he wants, but like Roy Williams, he has a superior WR playing opposite him. Nate Burleson, who is on pace to finish with 87 catches, 1,113 yards and seven touchdowns, is an underrated fantasy commodity. He’s tied for sixth in the league with 66 targets.

 The Lions’ offense was shutout at home against the Rams until 1:38 was left in Sunday’s game. I’m beginning to believe the team misses Calvin Johnson’s presence in the lineup. Speaking of, Johnson isn’t a bad target for fantasy teams right now. He could still make a big impact from here on out…I hope I’m wrong, but I can’t help but compare Kevin Smith to Kevin Jones. Both played for Detroit, wore #34, showed good promise as rookies, consistently got banged up and hampered by injuries, often leaving games early only to not even appear on the following week’s injury report, effective receivers yet poor YPC marks with similar running styles (not flashy or fast but effective enough). Here’s to Smith’s career turning out better…Part of me is sad Steven Jackson won’t finish with 2,000 yards and zero touchdowns this year. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

I actually think Frank Gore is going to be more valuable over the second half of the season, since he’s received more than 16 carries in just one game this year, but his current 5.6 YPC mark is a bit misleading. If you take away three of his rushing attempts, that number drops all the way down to 2.3 YPC. Of course, those long TD runs count, but it’s at least worth noting just how boom-or-bust his performance has been so far…Alex Smith wasn’t great Sunday, but he was facing one of the NFL’s best secondaries without his two starting tackles for most of the game, so it has to be considered yet another encouraging outing. Michael Crabtree continues to look like the real deal…There isn’t a bigger dichotomy of real life value versus fantasy value than Josepha Addai right now…There are only about seven or eight fantasy running backs I’d rather own than WR Reggie Wayne.

Rarely will you see a team outgain their opponent 378 yards to 104 and lose, but so was the case with the Jets on Sunday. A lot of people are killing New York for kicking to Ted Ginn, but the team entered the game with one of the best coverage units in football, and Ginn hadn’t exactly been some prominent returner throughout his career. Still, Rex Ryan clearly blew a (non) challenge as well, so his in-game management has been a major issue this year…Part of me thinks this Miami team is really good, but more of me sees the Dolphins’ bad secondary (8.2 YPA is second-most allowed in football), and if their ground game is shutdown, that offense can be ugly. Start New England’s defense with confidence this week…Don’t give up on Shonn Greene. The fumble returned for a score Sunday was a killer, but in favorable matchups, he’ll be a viable flex moving forward…The Jets are 4-4, but with a pass defense that has yielded the fewest YPA (5.5) in the NFL, a terrific rushing attack and now a healthy Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards (not to mention Dustin Keller) in the passing game, New York remains dangerous, although a rookie quarterback will ultimately be their downfall…I’ve previously made a “worst decision of 2009” proclamation this year, but the Dolphins’ decision to go for two up 30-19 with 8:48 left takes the cake. Truly mind-boggling. I don’t see the upside of going from 12-to-13 points, but I surely see the downside leaving it at 11 (it now only takes a FG and a TD instead of two touchdowns). More than any other outcome Sunday, I was rooting for the Jets to kick a field goal and then score a TD with a two-point conversion to tie the game. What was Tony Sparano thinking? This was first grade math type stuff. Unbelievable.

I’m not sure what to make of the Giants right now, but a good bet is that they are somewhere in between the team that looked unstoppable (mostly when beating what has later been revealed as bad teams) early in the year and the one that has looked awful during three straight losses. Health has played a role, but in a tough division, New York can’t afford to lose to the Chargers this week…With the broken bone revelation followed by Sunday’s lackluster performance, Ahmad Bradshaw owners shouldn’t be sleeping well at night. It’s not time to totally panic, but picking up Danny Ware wouldn’t be a bad idea…Is there a more explosive player in the NFL than DeSean Jackson? Jeremy Maclin is also a sneaky WR3 option from here on out…Donovan McNabb has been a bit up-and-down this season, but his astronomical 151.9 QB rating at home easily leads the NFL.

After he scored two touchdowns last week, LaDainian Tomlinson owners should be shopping him around like crazy. Remember, he also got 3.1 YPC while at home against the Raiders. His value will never be higher this season. In one of my leagues, I was recently offered him for Roddy White, and I considered it a personal attack, on par with someone insulting a family member, or even worse, dissing this season of “Curb Your Enthusiasm”…I’m sorry, but how funny is it that Al Davis selected Darrius Heyward-Bey ahead of Michael Crabtree? Will that ever get old? I say no…Finally, Norv Turner replaces Chris Chambers with Malcom Floyd. Better late than never, I guess.

Maurice Jones-Drew’s line Sunday (eight carries, 177 yards) has to go down as one of the craziest in 2009. David Garrard might want to stop audibling away from those run plays…Speaking of Garrard, we are entering Week 9, and he has zero touchdown passes on the road this season…It’s a shame how underused Chris Johnson is in Tennessee’s passing game. He’s clearly one of the best and most dynamic backs in the league.

During the two games against his former team this year, Brett Favre has gotten 9.2 YPA with a 7:0 TD:INT ratio, which is pretty good. Favre returned to a perfect situation – great offensive line, best running back in football, solid defense, underrated receiving corps, but there’s no denying just how good he’s been. As it turns out, he’s only enhanced, instead of tarnish, his legacy. I for one certainly didn’t see it coming…Jared Allen is an unstoppable force. What a beast. But I’m tired of hearing about his “motor.” Can we please come up with a better word?...Through seven games, Aaron Rodgers has almost been sacked as many times (31) as all of last year (34). Green Bay’s offensive line has not played well, but plenty of the blame belongs on him as well. Still, this is a quarterback who has gotten 9.8 YPA with a 12:2 TD:INT ratio over the past five games, so he’s the least of the Packers’ worries…In a game that had already totaled 58 points with 10:26 left, Green Bay’s decision to go for two down five was questionable, although this one was at least debatable, unlike the Miami one.

Funny how the Cardinals/Panthers game last week played out basically exactly the opposite as last year’s Divisional playoff meeting. This time, Arizona was the double-digit home favorite, yet it was Kurt Warner committing the six turnovers instead of Jake Delhomme…If I’m an Anquan Boldin owner, I’d rather him sit out and get 100 percent healthy than fight through a clearly hobbling ankle injury. His toughness is admirable, but it’s not helping matters either…Do you realize Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards receiving this year? It’s not his fault, of course, but his current 10.8 yards-per-catch mark is a career-worst by a wide margin…Arizona’s 28-7 deficit Sunday was the worst possible thing to happen to Chris Wells, who still is an afterthought during obvious passing situations…Carolina rushed for 270 yards against an Arizona defense that entered the game leading the NFL in YPC against. The Panthers will live and die based on their running game.

With Michael Turner running for 151 yards on just 20 carries after entering the game with just a 3.4 YPC mark, it appears the absence of Sedrick Ellis will be quite a blow for New Orleans. Turner deserves plenty of credit himself, of course, as he looked quite impressive breaking numerous tackles all night long. Speaking of, this was Atlanta’s first loss ever when Turner ran for more than 100 yards, which highlights how silly that stat was to begin with…Mike Bell isn’t some scrub, but as the superior runner and pass-catcher, it’s hard to see why Pierre Thomas isn’t getting a greater majority of the carries. Bell is viewed as the more punishing back and the team’s “closer,” but Thomas has gotten 6.2 YPC during the second half of games this season, including a whopping 7.4 during fourth quarters…After the Saints came back down 31-3 ATS last week, how did they ruin my cover this week up 11 with 1:23 left and with the ball? Even without the benefit of hindsight, why not kneel there? The only chance the team had of losing the game (forget the spread) was a fumble there, and there’s little chance of gaining the first down with the Falcons obviously loading the box (and there’s also added risk of injury). The thing I hate most about today’s NFL is how coaches behave based more on “protocol” than what’s right regarding percentages.