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NFBC vs MDC: An ADP Comparison

The closer we get to pitchers and catchers reporting, the more mock drafts are happening on a daily basis. And with that, the data here on Mock Draft Central that we have been somewhat avoiding lately is starting to become more relevant. As of today, February 8, there were 195 mixed-league, 5x5 mock drafts done in the past week, and while that’s nowhere near the 550 per week that we’ll start seeing in March, it’s enough to see just how far off from the NFBC data we’ve been using over the past several weeks it really is.

We’re know that we are still not at the point where we can fully trust the ADP data here, but right now, it’s hard to trust any ADP data actually. Spring training has yet to begin, free agent signings are still taking place and there will be numerous position battles to be won and lost. We’ve been using the NFBC data because of the expectation that NFBC mockers have been taking the process a little more seriously than some of the fanboys we expect to see here on Mock Draft Central. And as such, the ADP data is considered to be more reliable.

But let’s face facts. Not every draft you are going to do is filled with serious fantasy baseballers who make sensible value picks. A lot of your home leagues are going to be filled with these very same fanboys and ADP be damned, they’re going to take who they want, when they want. So while the data here may not be totally reliable for the serious drafts, it’s actually good to check in with now so that you can see who the trendy picks are and just how early they are being grabbed in comparison to where most of the pundits are taking them.

So what I’ve done for you here is put the top 50 ADP from both the NFBC and here at Mock Draft Central and put them side by side so that we can see the big differences and see how close or how far apart the ADP rankings really are right now.

NFBC



Mock Draft Central


Rank Player Team Pos ADP
Rank Player Team Pos ADP
1 Ryan Braun Mil OF 1.81
1 Ryan Braun Mil OF 1.69
2 Miguel Cabrera Det 3B 2.11
2 Mike Trout LAA OF 2.06
3 Mike Trout LAA OF 2.11
3 Miguel Cabrera Det 3B 2.56
4 Robinson Cano NYY 2B 4.57
4 Matt Kemp LAD OF 4.66
5 Andrew McCutchen Pit OF 6.00
5 Andrew McCutchen Pit OF 5.79
6 Matt Kemp LAD OF 6.32
6 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 6.60
7 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 7.30
7 Robinson Cano NYY 2B 7.22
8 Joey Votto Cin 1B 7.92
8 Jose Bautista Tor OF 9.46
9 Prince Fielder Det 1B 11.03
9 Joey Votto Cin 1B 10.10
10 Carlos Gonzalez Col OF 11.49
10 Carlos Gonzalez Col OF 11.43
11 Josh Hamilton LAA OF 11.81
11 Prince Fielder Det 1B 12.55
12 Stephen Strasburg Was SP 13.11
12 Justin Upton Atl OF 13.60
13 Buster Posey SF C 13.32
13 Curtis Granderson NYY OF 13.82
14 Justin Verlander Det SP 14.03
14 Buster Posey SF C 13.90
15 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 16.78
15 Adrian Beltre Tex 3B 16.63
16 Giancarlo Stanton Mia OF 16.95
16 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 17.09
17 Troy Tulowitzki Col SS 17.32
17 Bryce Harper Was OF 17.96
18 Hanley Ramirez LAD SS 18.59
18 Troy Tulowitzki Col SS 18.60
19 Jose Bautista Tor OF 19.49
19 Giancarlo Stanton Mia OF 18.69
20 Adrian Beltre Tex 3B 19.89
20 Justin Verlander Det SP 21.96
21 Evan Longoria TB 3B 20.78
21 Josh Hamilton LAA OF 22.08
22 Jose Reyes Tor SS 22.03
22 Paul Goldschmidt Ari 1B 23.70
23 Justin Upton Atl OF 23.35
23 Adam Jones Bal OF 25.21
24 David Wright NYM 3B 23.81
24 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 1B 26.30
25 Dustin Pedroia Bos 2B 26.65
25 David Wright NYM 3B 27.23
26 Edwin Encarnacion Tor 1B 27.86
26 Evan Longoria TB 3B 27.83
27 David Price TB SP 28.32
27 B.J. Upton Atl OF 28.37
28 Jason Heyward Atl OF 28.59
28 Stephen Strasburg Was SP 29.91
29 Ian Kinsler Tex 2B 30.57
29 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B 30.66
30 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B 31.86
30 Jay Bruce Cin OF 32.73
31 Adam Jones Bal OF 32.49
31 Craig Kimbrel Atl RP 33.35
32 Ryan Zimmerman Was 3B 33.76
32 Hanley Ramirez LAD SS 34.29
33 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos OF 34.08
33 Jason Heyward Atl OF 36.06
34 Bryce Harper Was OF 34.65
34 Allen Craig StL 1B,OF 37.45
35 Felix Hernandez Sea SP 36.49
35 Starlin Castro ChC SS 37.54
36 Starlin Castro ChC SS 36.73
36 Ian Kinsler Tex 2B 37.87
37 Chase Headley SD 3B 37.43
37 Jose Reyes Tor SS 38.07
38 Curtis Granderson NYY OF 40.16
38 Billy Butler KC 1B 38.41
39 Cole Hamels Phi SP 41.73
39 Dustin Pedroia Bos 2B 38.44
40 Aramis Ramirez Mil 3B 42.78
40 David Price TB SP 39.84
41 Matt Cain SF SP 43.70
41 Cliff Lee Phi SP 40.89
42 Yoenis Cespedes Oak OF 43.84
42 Yadier Molina StL C 42.44
43 Ian Desmond Was SS 44.03
43 Aramis Ramirez Mil 3B 42.48
44 B.J. Upton Atl OF 44.22
44 Ryan Zimmerman Was 3B 43.99
45 Matt Holliday StL OF 45.08
45 Felix Hernandez Sea SP 44.07
46 Jay Bruce Cin OF 45.51
46 Chase Headley SD 3B 45.39
47 Billy Butler KC 1B 46.11
47 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos OF 46.24
48 Craig Kimbrel Atl RP 46.95
48 Cole Hamels Phi SP 49.13
49 Ben Zobrist TB OF 49.14
49 Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 49.59
50 Gio Gonzalez Was SP 49.51
50 Yoenis Cespedes Oak OF 50.33


Biggest Outliers

Favored by Mock Draft Central:

If we’re assuming that it’s the fanboys and eager-beavers that are mocking it up here at MDC, then these are the picks that should be considered the trendiest of selections. These picks are made based on a variety of things, but for the most part, it comes down to hype and/or a highly productive season the year before. They are getting tons of press right now and are in the forefront of every fantasy player’s mind. Again, the assumption is that their real value is found in the NFBC data, but if these are the guys being reached for now, it could take an even bigger reach to attain their services the closer we get to the start of the season, especially if they are having a strong spring.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B ARI (30.38) – It’s not just the power here that everyone covets, it’s also the .286 average from last year and the prospect of continued double-digit steals totals. He’s just outside the top 50 overall in NFBC play, going in the middle of the third round, but he’s such a desired commodity, that he is second round material for the masses and almost a top 20 overall pick. Given the depth at the position and the fact that he’s only entering his second season, the masses probably need to cool their jets a little.

Yadier Molina, C STL (28.86) – It’s always a risk to take a catcher early in your draft, considering how taxing the position is, but the people are clamoring for Yaddy who is coming off a career year at the age of 30. The fact that he is going inside the first three rounds of most MDC mocks seems to be too much of a reach here even if he does put up similar numbers.

Curtis Granderson, OF NYY (26.34) – Batting average be damned says the public. Forty bombs is forty bombs and if you’re kicking in double-digit steals, then that’s worthy of a pick just around the turn after the first round. If there was more consistency with the stolen base total, then I would be in full agreement with those at MDC, but for now I’ll say that he should slot somewhere in the middle between the two. The boys at the NFBC seem to put too much stock in batting average, pushing him to the tail-end of the third round.

Bryce Harper, OF WAS (16.69) – The name alone is going to force you to reach whether you like it or not. He had a solid season in his first year and the hype says that he’ll be even better in each successive season. In a keeper league, he’s a no-brainer high pick, but in re-draft leagues, I lean towards the NFBC who has him more as an early third round selection.

Allen Craig, 1B/OF STL (16.36) – I said my piece on Craig’s ADP in the last article, but if you don’t want to click back, I’ll say that he’s going too high in both. If he’s available to me in the sixth or seventh round (which, given the hype, he’ll never be) then I would make the move, but higher than that, I’ll let anyone else take the risk.

Also favored at Mock Draft Central: B.J. Upton (15.85), Craig Kimbrel (13.60), Mark Teixeira (13.14), Jay Bruce (12.78), Cliff Lee (11.43)

Favored by NFBC

So this is apparently where the smarties are showing the public just how wrong they can be. Obviously there are certain difference that need to be taken into account such as the size of the leagues, the level of competition and some constrictive rules that need to be put into place in a big money-league situation, so be careful as to just how much stock you’re putting into their ADP. If you play in a deep, competitive league, then it’s all probably comparable, but if your league is shallow and filled with casual owners, you may not want to let it guide/restrict you too much. Here are some of the guys that are much more highly coveted in the NFBC than they are in the general public’s eye.

Ian Desmond, SS WAS (48.55) – Maybe it’s position scarcity in a 15-team league doing the talking here but while Desmond is listed as the 90th overall player by the masses, those in the NFBC have him going in the tail-end of the third round. The position is super-thin and he showed a crazy spike in power last year, but I see regression in his future and that knocks him down a number of spots. Maybe not all the way down to 90, but considering how far most of the shortstops are falling, maybe the 5th or 6th round is a better spot to grab him. If he goes before that, then feel comfortable about moving onto someone else.

Matt Cain, SP SF (17.08) – Save for the top five starters, the masses seem to be adopting the standard expert proclamation that you wait on starting pitching. In the NFBC, however, the league is deep and with no trading allowed, starters are getting more attention and rightfully so. Even in a 15-team league, I’m hesitant to take Cain in the late third, where he’s going in the NFBC, but in a 12-team league or less, I’m not looking for him until the fifth or sixth round at the earliest. And if someone takes him before me, I’m happily moving on to the next guy.

Jose Reyes, SS TOR (16.04) – I think the NFBC has it on the money here with Reyes going in the second round. The public is probably too concerned with his injury history (proven a non-factor last year), but with position scarcity, his ability to swipe 40-plus bags and moving to a hitter’s park where he could return to 15-plus home run power, he’s definitely a favorable pick.

Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS LAD (15.70) – Obviously the dual-position eligibility is huge, but Hanley seems primed for a rebound and should have no problem reaching 20-20 status again. Possibly even 25-25 if the shoulder is good and he continues to get the green light. It’s obvious as to why he’s getting more love in the NFBC, and with a hot spring, the masses will follow.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF TB (13.72) – Crazy good position eligibility and 20-plus home run power is doing great things for Zobrist’s popularity and is a no-brainer pick in the fourth round where he’s going in the NFBC. It’s actually a little odd that he is where he is at MDC, but that will probably change soon enough. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him creep up even further in the NFBC mocks as well.

Also favored in NFBC: Jacoby Ellsbury (12.16), Dustin Pedroia (11.79), David Price (11.52), Josh Hamilton (10.27), Ryan Zimmerman (10.23)

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for more detailed questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

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