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My Yahoo F&F Team - Reach For Drew Stubbs Edition

You've already seen Chris Liss' team, here's my squad - drafting out of the first spot. Here are the full results.


1. (1) Albert Pujols (StL - 1B)
2. (28) Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B)
3. (29) Andrew McCutchen (Pit - OF)
4. (56) Justin Verlander (Det - P)
5. (57) Drew Stubbs (Cin - OF)
6. (84) Dan Haren (LAA - P)
7. (85) Heath Bell (SD - P)
8. (112) Casey McGehee (Mil - 3B)
9. (113) Geovany Soto (ChC - C)
10. (140) Jason Bay (NYM - OF)
11. (141) Joel Hanrahan (Pit - P)
12. (168) Howie Kendrick (LAA - 1B,2B)
13. (169) Adam Jones (Bal - OF)
14. (196) Ricky Romero (Tor - P)
15. (197) Alcides Escobar (KC - SS)
16. (224) Derrek Lee (Bal - 1B)
17. (225) Matt LaPorta (Cle - 1B,OF)
18. (252) Bud Norris (Hou - P)
19. (253) Alexi Ogando (Tex - P)
20. (280) Jhonny Peralta (Det - 3B,SS)
21. (281) Brandon Belt (SF - 1B)
22. (308) Sean Burnett (Was - P)
23. (309) James McDonald (Pit - P)
24. (336) Jonathon Niese (NYM - P)
25. (337) Anibal Sánchez (Fla - P)


Here's my take on the Stubbs pick. You've seen my rankings and projections for Stubbs, so while I'm following that projection, I might have considered waiting later if I hadn't been on the end of the draft. There's a lot better chance he makes it back to me in 10-14 picks than a full 26. I seriously contemplated taking two top starters there (paired with Verlander), but instead rolled the dice with my speed + power option.

If there's a regret, it's passing on Zack Greinke at 6.14 and going with Haren instead - I just couldn't pull the trigger because of the latest injury news. But with an innings-cap league, that shouldn't matter as much, and I regretted passing on him almost as soon as Andy Behrens took him at 7.3.

Once I got blocked from Jose Reyes in the second round, I resigned myself to waiting late on shortstops, so I was pretty happy to get Alcides Escobar late and back him up with Jhonny Peralta even later - especially with such a thin bench, Peralta's dual-eligibility helps.

In the past I've waited too long pitching, particularly closers, so I made sure that didn't happen this year with Bell and then again with Hanrahan. Had I passed on a closer in that second closer spot, things would have gotten awfully gnarly pretty quick.

Scott already mentioned that my team rates well in the draft tool standings function - of course, it should, as they're my projections and I used the draft tool extensively during the draft. Nonetheless, I'm happier with my team this year than I have been in recent years. It's a tough league and I'll have to do a better job of the day-to-day management to really do well.

Comments

By: Zenguerrilla
On: 3/23/2011 3:29:00 PM
"my team rates well in the draft tool standings function - of course, it should, as they're my projections" WINNING!!! I think you intentionally nerfed Belts stats just so you could get him at a bargain? Funny, how they all of a sudden tripled up after your draft??? J/K :)
 
By: Mark Stopa
On: 3/23/2011 4:37:00 PM
We have a nice debate going on Stanton in Liss' blog. Chime in, Jeff. What's your take?

I remember you telling me when we did the auction for the magazine in December that you were high on Stanton, who you got pretty cheaply, and that by March "everyone would be." Seems to me you were right on. Did you actually anticipate that the industry would over-hype him, increasing his draft day price? How much of his draft day price is a product of industry hype?
 
By: Erickson
On: 3/23/2011 4:54:00 PM
I weighed in over there, but it bears repeating. I did think that his price would rise with industry-hype/further research into what the player is capable of. Yes, there's a groupthink function at work, but sometimes that's also justified. See also, Carlos Gonzalez circa last year. I can guarantee you that if Derek Carty didn't pay $27 for Stanton at LABR, Liss probably isn't considering him in the 4th round yesterday. But that's also draft dynamics - sometimes you just want your guy, and given that it's not an auction, why not just get your guy? With Carty having two picks before Liss's next pick, let alone the other players in the league, what percentage would you put the chances on Liss getting Stanton in the fifth or later? Probably no higher than 25%.
 
By: Erickson
On: 3/23/2011 5:04:00 PM
I actually bumped up Belt's projection during Tuesday's show, upon looking him for a listener's question, for what it's worth. And he's still a reserve to begin with for me, so he didn't factor into the projected standings.
 
By: Mark Stopa
On: 3/23/2011 5:20:00 PM
FWIW, I don't see Stubbs as a reach.
 
By: matthewthill7
On: 3/23/2011 5:34:00 PM
Strongly dislike McCutchen at 29. Nelson Cruz, Heyward, Choo and Justin Upton are absolutely better choices than Andrew. All three of those guys can easily match or exceed McCutchen in Avg and runs, and will run circles around him in HR and RBI. McCutchen might steal a handful more bags than those guys, but they are all 20+ SB threats, too. I ask - how can you possibly justify that selection? What has McCutchen done to justify a top-30 pick? Big mistake. It's a gross error if you are counting on growth from him simply because he's "young"; there are plenty of elite talents - Braun, Teixeira, Howard - who came into the leagues guns blazing, and then regressed in later years even though they are still in their "primes". Luckily they had talent to spare, so it's not as if we care a great deal, but McCutchen is not in their class.

Ditto for Stubbs at 57 - Why?? His career triple slash is .258/.328/.442, meaning his batting average and on-base skills are below replacement-level. I get that he's a tantalizing player who offers the (massively overrated) HR/SB holy grail, but his baseline bat skills are sub-par. Whoever got Granderson committed Grand Theft; Grandy has a better career triple slash, better ISO, better contact rate and better line up.

McGehee and Soto make sense, as those two can actually *hit* (even if they can't steal bases).
 
By: mhixpgh1
On: 3/23/2011 5:58:00 PM
I Have Escobar on 2 of my teams (just have 3 this season). I drafted him primarily for his SBs. Just curious, what do you folks set his SB +/- at this season?

Re: Laporta. It has to get better, right? He's hitting .174 with 8 hits and just 5 walks in 51 PAs this spring.
 
By: ScoresheetOwner
On: 3/24/2011 8:48:00 AM
McCutchen at 29 might be too early. But, when picking in the #1 spot (as Jeff was), if he does not take McCutchen then he has little chance of him lasting 19 more picks. Same with Stubbs - in a draft (unlike an auction) if there is a guy you want, especially if you are picking at the end of a round, you etter take him or he is liable to be gone before you pick again 19 picks later.
I really liked Kendrick at the end of round 12, Bay in round 10, and Ogando in round 19. If Feliz starts for Texas then Ogando can deliver an awful lot of saves for a round 19 pick. And that is a round where gambling (risk taking) should be the goal.
 
By: Tenac
On: 3/24/2011 9:11:00 AM
Nice team. And I like McCutchen at that spot. Pirates should have an improved lineup, he's batting third, and looks like a decent bet for a 20/40 or 25/35 season.

Haren, Soto, and Hanrahan look like really nice values.
 

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