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More Late Spring ADP Risers and Fallers

With the season opening on Sunday night, it’s time for our last look at some of the risers and fallers in the recent ADP rankings. Again, since we’re just looking to identify simple trends we’re going to stick with the trend report on Mock Draft Central rather than be too concerned with actual ADP rankings from the NFBC as we have used through most of the spring. Besides, the ADP trends and their reflective ranks that we see here on MDC seem to be slightly more in line with more shallow leagues. – leagues of 12-teams or fewer, regardless of one or two-catcher rules.

Late Risers

Buster Posey, C  SF (ADP: 10.98; +10.9%) – It’s been a long time since a catcher rated a spot this high in drafts but Posey has held strong inside the top 15 here for the entire offseason. This is the highest he’s been though, having risen in the ADP ranks over the last two weeks. Personally, I don’t believe in taking a catcher this high due to the injury risks for one who plays such a taxing position, but that doesn’t seem to bother many others, particularly the Giants who just reached an agreement with him on an eight-year, $159M extension with a $21.4M club option for 2022. He’s going to produce so long as he is healthy, no question about it, but is it really worth it a first round pick when the position is as deep as it is this seasons?

Jason Heyward, OF ATL (ADP: 23.47; +62.1%) – Heyward continues to climb, and rightfully so, as he truly has the potential to put up a 30-20 season this year. It’s been a relatively slow spring so far, but that isn’t deterring people from grabbing him earlier and earlier lately. People forget that it was only 2010 when pundits were carrying on about Heyward as they have Bryce Harper the past year and a half and had it not been for a series of minor injuries lingering on him, his breakout may have already come. He went 20-20 last year and it looked like we were barely scratching the surface. This year he takes it another step further.

Wilin Rosario, C COL (ADP: 45.69; +55.2%) – After last season’s outstanding 28-homer performance, all eyes sit on Rosario, wondering just what he can do for an encore. The biggest part of that rookie-season breakout was the fact that he hit .291 for the second half which raised his overall average to a .270 mark. He did it with a .311 BABIP so while that isn’t outlandish, it still might be a bit high for him. Look for an overall mark closer to .260 this year, but the power is certainly for real and he could come close to breaching the 30-homer barrier this season. This push up the ADP ranks is taking a good part of his value away, but as a possible sixth or seventh round option, he should certainly be worth it.

Eric Hosmer, 1B KC (ADP: 75.22; +19.1%) – Hosmer has looked strong again this spring, batting .385 with a pair of home runs and 14 RBI, but that is nothing new for him as he has excelled during this time of year for the last two seasons. What it all comes down to for him is how well he adjusts in-season when teams begin to employ the extreme defensive shift against him which, last season, destroyed his BABIP and kept him in a slump all year. People seem to think he’s ready to take a step forward and return to his rookie-season glory as he continues to ascend in the ADP rankings even this late in the spring, but we all know a hit spring doesn’t amount to a whole lot. Despite where he’s going in drafts, he might end up better as your corner guy than your primary first baseman.

Recent Fallers

Jason Kipnis, 2B CLE (ADP: 55.97; -13.8%) – An elbow injury has been hampering the Indians’ second baseman over the past two weeks, and while he is still expected to be ready for Opening Day, people drafting are becoming more cautious and he is dropping in ADP. He’s gone from a latethird/early fourth round pick for most of the offseason to a late fourth/ early fifth round choice. The drop isn’t substantial, but if you’re picking close to the turn, his drop might help allow you to wait a few picks on him, get you another solid player and still leave open the opportunity to grab him. The injury, overlal doesn’t sound serious, so you could end up with him at a nice bargain spot.

Jason Motte, RP STL (ADP: 83.12; -11.2%) – Now here’s an elbow injury that just might be worth freaking out about. Motte had been the second closer coming off the board in virtually every mixed and NL-only draft, but with a DL stint to open the season and plenty of question marks surrounding the actual severity of the injury, Motte continues to drop in ADP. It would be interesting to see how far he would have fallen had there been more time left in the spring, but the timing is probably saving a lot of owners still. Mitchell Boggs looks to be the guy to own right now, but it just might be Trevor Rosenthal who leads the team in saves by year end.

John Axford, RP MIL (ADP: 136.58; -24.1%) – Closers, on the whole, have been trending downwards the closer we move to the start of the year, but that should come to be expected as more and more people shy away from the volatility of the position than anything else. But Axford, whose ratios got blown up last year, remains a risky option to many who also feel like Jim Henderson could fare just as well, if not better in the role. The leash is fairly long on Axford, so he remains an option if you’re in need of saves. Just make sure that you’re handcuffing him properly so when his ERA climbs above 4.50 again and they start talking of a demotion, you’re covered.

Cameron Maybin, OF SD (ADP: 160.69; -12.5%) – Maybin has been an enigma for some time and it looks as if few people have the same faith in him as I have shown over the years. His 40-plus stolen base performance in 2011 appeared to be the start of something big, but after watching him fall apart last season, again, thanks to a variety of injuries, his stock is on the decline yet again. It’s hard to write him off though as he is just entering his prime and should hopefully see an uptick in power. Couple that with the fences coming in at Petco and we could be looking at a bigger breakout season for him provided he stays healthy. His falling ADP could be a blessing in disguise, so don’t worry about having to reach for him at all.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

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By: npl77
On: 3/31/2013 9:05:00 AM
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